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Thread: Economists Predict Growth in 2011

  1. #11
    The Professor Bman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economists Predict Growth in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Bman View Post
    I personally see their prediction of 3% GDP growth in 2011 to be too optimistic

    I'd say something closer to 2% is likely


    Damn, Boy.. you're good!

    Treasury Prices Turn Positive After US GDP, Jobs Data



    By Cynthia Lin Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Treasury prices shot into positive territory after data in the U.S. showed worse-than-expected economic growth and weekly jobless claims.

    U.S. economic growth in the first quarter grew 1.8%, below the consensus expectation of 2.2%. The latest jobs data also cast a shadow on the progress of the U.S. recovery, with weekly jobless claims coming in above the expected 405,000.

    Both reports Thursday morning added to the recent drumbeat of dreary data that suggest the U.S. has hit a soft patch in its recovery.


    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...26-707715.html



    one quarter does not make a full year, however


    so, far, however.. right on the money
    Of course, none of these extraordinary events would ever have happened if not for Bush and he retires with the most astounding successes achieved by any president in recent memory. -- Mars S, January 2009

  2. #12
    Vote Dammit! DammitBoy!'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Economists Predict Growth in 2011

    You are a sad little man
    VOTE DAMMIT, VOTE OFTEN!

  3. #13
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    Default Re: Economists Predict Growth in 2011

    • May 31, 2011, 3:09 PM ET
    Bank of America Cuts Its GDP Forecast, Too


    Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris joins the growing list of economists cutting their GDP forecasts for the second quarter.

    In a weekend note that just hit our inboxes, he slashed his forecast for GDP growth to 2%, from 2.8%.

    Mr. Harris, long one of the smarter forecasters on Wall Street, was already more downbeat than most of his contemporaries.

    Now he is even moreso:
    As the data continue to weaken, we continue to cut our forecast. Back on April 1st we argued that both consensus and official forecasts for growth are too optimistic. We argued that Q1 growth would likely have a “one handle” and growth for the year as a whole would be a disappointing 2.5%. This was an aggressive call and considerably below consensus at the time. We now expect that weakness to extend into Q2, with growth of just 2%.
    That 2% forecast is well below “trend” growth in the economy and below the forecasts of Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Macroeconomic Advisers, all of whom cut forecasts for the quarter last week.

    “While some of the data weakness can be attributed to one-off factors, specifically the Japanese supply disruptions, the slowdown is broad-based,” Mr. Harris adds.

    Add another log to the slowdown, or not, fire.





    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011...too/tab/print/
    Of course, none of these extraordinary events would ever have happened if not for Bush and he retires with the most astounding successes achieved by any president in recent memory. -- Mars S, January 2009

  4. #14
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    Default Re: Economists Predict Growth in 2011

    Economists cut growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012


    Mon September 12, 2011 11:02 AM | about: FDX




    NEWS PROVIDED BY:
    AP




    WASHINGTON -- Confronted with an economy that has decidedly underperformed this year, economists are scaling back their growth forecasts for 2011 and next year.

    In their latest forecast, top economists with the National Association for Business Economics predict that the economy will grow 1.7 percent this year _ down from the group's May prediction of 2.8 percent expansion. For 2012, the group is forecasting growth of 2.3 percent, compared to a May forecast of 3.2 percent growth.

    The new survey, released Monday, is in line with the outlook of other economists who have marked down growth prospects to reflect an economy that has struggled this year to deal with a spike in gasoline prices, production disruptions stemming from Japan's earthquake, a flare-up of Europe's debt problems and a prolonged debate over America's debt ceiling.

    "A wide variety of factors were seen as restraining growth, including low consumer and business confidence," said Gene Huang, the president-elect of NABE and one of 52 professional forecasters who participated in the survey.

    "Panelists are very concerned about high unemployment, federal deficits and the European sovereign debt crisis," said Huang, who is chief economist at FedEx Corp.
    The survey was done before President Barack Obama appeared before Congress on Thursday to unveil a new $447 billion plan to jump-start job growth through a combination of tax cuts and government spending.

    The latest NABE outlook underscores the problems facing an economy that many economists fear could be in danger of slipping into another recession.

    The expectations for overall economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, for both 2011 and 2012 were trimmed by a percentage point from the May forecast. The May estimates had been trimmed from February when the NABE analysts were forecasting growth of 3.3 percent this year.

    The economy grew 3 percent in 2010, the first full year after the country emerged from the 2007-2009 recession, but slowed to an annual rate of just 0.7 percent in the first six months of this year.

    Because of the slow growth, the NABE forecasters don't expect much improvement in the unemployment rate, which in August was stuck at 9.1 percent, a month when the economy didn't create any net new jobs.

    For all of 2011, the economists are forecasting the unemployment rate will average 9 percent and will improve only slightly to 8.7 percent in 2012. In May, the NABE panel had projected unemployment would average 8.7 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year.

    Job growth was projected to average 124,000 per month this year, instead of the 190,000 average monthly job gains the economists had forecast in May. Next year's average job growth was put at 162,000, instead of the 202,000 job gains forecast in May.

    The economy needs to add at least 250,000 jobs a month to rapidly bring down the unemployment rate. The rate has been above 9 percent in all but two months since May 2009.

    The NABE panel forecast that builders would start work on 590,000 new homes this year, no improvement from last year's weak pace, while sales of new cars was put at 12.6 million units, up a modest 8.6 percent from the 11.6 million new vehicles sold in 2010.

    The economists did see a little better outlook for oil prices, which they projected would average $90 per barrel in December, down from a forecast of $105 per barrel in May. Oil was trading Friday around $87 per barrel.

    The new NABE forecast was prepared for the group's annual conference, being held this year in Dallas


    (c) 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article...-2011-and-2012
    Of course, none of these extraordinary events would ever have happened if not for Bush and he retires with the most astounding successes achieved by any president in recent memory. -- Mars S, January 2009

  5. #15
    The Professor Bman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economists Predict Growth in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Bman View Post
    I personally see their prediction of 3% GDP growth in 2011 to be too optimistic

    I'd say something closer to 2% is likely


    As of February 29, 2012:

    Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 (that is, from the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual
    level), compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010.

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm




    Not too bad, if I do say so myself
    Last edited by Bman; 03-20-2012 at 09:56 AM.
    Of course, none of these extraordinary events would ever have happened if not for Bush and he retires with the most astounding successes achieved by any president in recent memory. -- Mars S, January 2009

  6. #16
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    Default Re: Economists Predict Growth in 2011

    The 2012 forcast of 2.3%... is probably a bit high as well..

    I'm thinking maybe 1.8% - 2.0% for 2012
    Of course, none of these extraordinary events would ever have happened if not for Bush and he retires with the most astounding successes achieved by any president in recent memory. -- Mars S, January 2009

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