Bman
01-23-2007, 12:57 AM
I'm calling the top of the US stock market right here on January 23. Time to get out .. a multi-month correction is looming soon
Here's why:
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070122005369&newsLang=en
January 22, 2007 08:30 AM Eastern Time
Investor Optimism Reaches Highest Level in Three Years
Over One-Third of Investors Expect Stock Market to Reach New Record Level in ‘07
Investors Less Pessimistic about Residential Real Estate Outlook
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Investor optimism soared to its highest level since 2004 reaching 103 for the month of January. This is a jump of 13 points from last month’s level of 90 and only the fifth time the Index has been above 100 since December 2000. The Index is conducted monthly and had a baseline score of 124 when it was established in October 1996.
Investors are beginning 2007 with a bullish outlook for the stock market. Thirty-seven percent of investors expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to end 2007 at a higher level than its record 2006 close. Of those expecting the DJIA to end 2007 higher, 66 percent expect an increase of five to ten percent, 22 percent expect an increase of less than five percent, and 11 percent predict an increase of more than ten percent. Only 15 percent of investors expect the DJIA to end 2007 lower than its 2006 close, and 46 percent expect it to close the year at about the same level as last year.
While investor sentiment continues to suggest that residential real estate market conditions continue to deteriorate, investor perceptions are somewhat less negative than they were in previous months. Two in three investors (65 percent) believe conditions in the residential real estate market nationwide are getting worse, down slightly from the 70 percent who felt this way in November and December of last year. Similarly, 50 percent of investors say conditions in their local community’s residential real estate market are getting worse, not getting better. This is a drop from 57 percent who felt this way in December.
“With inflation remaining under control, investors see the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut during 2007 and therefore believe the slide in the real estate market may be coming to an end. The continued rally in the stock market has also improved investors’ outlook for their own portfolios over the coming year,” said Mike Ryan, Head of UBS Wealth Management Research Americas.
Despite falling oil prices and sharply lower gas prices at the pump than during much of 2006, high energy prices continued to top investor concerns in January with 57 percent saying they believe energy prices are hurting the current investment climate “a lot.” This is essentially the same as the 54 percent who felt this way in November and the 55 percent who felt this way in December, but significantly lower than the 78 percent who held this view in August 2006. In December, 50 percent of investors pointed to international tensions as hurting the investment climate a lot and the same percentage pointed to the federal budget deficit as a major investor concern.
The Personal Dimension, which measures people’s optimism about their own portfolios over the next 12 months, jumped four points to 73 in January – the highest point for this dimension of the Index since March 2002 when it stood at 80. The Economic Dimension, which measures people’s optimism about the economy over the next 12 months, increased nine points in January and now stands at 30, its highest level since February 2004 when it also hit 30. This suggests that investors as a whole are somewhat optimistic about the economic outlook for 2007.
These findings are part of the 106th Index of Investor Optimism, which was conducted January 2-14, 2007. To track and measure Index changes on an ongoing basis, new samplings are taken monthly. Dennis J. Jacobe, Chief Economist for Gallup, said the sampling included 802 investors randomly selected from across the country. For this study, the American investor is defined as any person who is head of a household or a spouse in any household with total savings and investments of $10,000 or more. Nearly 40 percent of American households have at least this amount in savings and investments. The sampling error in the results is plus or minus four percentage points.
For more than 60 years, the Gallup Organization has been a recognized leader in the measurement and analysis of people’s attitudes, opinions and behavior. While best known for the Gallup Poll, founded in 1935, Gallup’s current activities consist largely of providing marketing and management research, advisory services and education to the world’s largest corporations and institutions.
UBS is one of the world’s leading financial firms, serving a discerning global client base. As an organization, it combines financial strength with an international culture that embraces change. As an integrated firm, UBS creates added value for clients by drawing on the combined resources and expertise of all its businesses.
UBS is the world's largest wealth manager, a top tier investment banking and securities firm, and one of the largest global asset managers. In Switzerland, UBS is the market leader in retail and commercial banking.
UBS is present in all major financial centers worldwide. It has offices in 50 countries, with about 39% of its employees working in the Americas, 36% in Switzerland, 16% in the rest of Europe and 9% in Asia Pacific. UBS's financial businesses employ around 75,000 people around the world. Its shares are listed on the SWX Swiss Stock Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).
Additional information about the Index of Investor Optimism can be found at www.ubs.com/investoroptimism
UBS Index of Investor Optimism overall trend
Overall Index
07 January 103
06 December 90
06 November 93
06 October 79
06 September 74
06 August 53
06 July 55
06 June 58
06 May 64
06 April 63
06 March 79
06 February 80
06 January 93
05 December 79
05 November 50
05 October 47
05 September 34
05 August 61
05 July 58
05 June 54
05 May 50
05 April 52
05 March 74
05 February 82
05 January 76
04 December 79
04 November 69
04 October 62
04 September 74
04 August 77
04 July 88
04 June 95
04 May 71
04 April 73
04 March 85
04 February 97
04 January 108
03 December 104
03 November 93
03 October 69
03 September 54
03 August 61
03 July 54
03 June 77
03 May 42
03 April 66
03 March 5
03 February 9
03 January 38
02 December 52
02 November 41
02 October 29
02 September 60
02 August 52
02 July 46
02 June 72
02 May 90
02 April 89
02 March 121
02 February 92
02 January 115
01 December 88
01 November 84
01 October 86
01 September 50
01 August 76
01 July 74
01 June 85
01 May 90
01 April 81
01 March 82
01 February 77
01 January 96
00 December 106
00 November 130
00 October 132
00 September 147
00 August 160
00 July 143
00 June 149
00 May 155
00 April 140
00 March 150
00 February 168
00 January 178
99 December 174
99 November 148
99 October 139
99 September 160
99 August 149
99 July 166
99 June 146
99 May 163
99 April 168
99 March 151
99 February 167
98 December 141
98 September 147
98 June 160
98 March 161
97 December 151
97 September 151
97 June 152
97 February 128
96 November 125
96 October 124
Here's why:
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070122005369&newsLang=en
January 22, 2007 08:30 AM Eastern Time
Investor Optimism Reaches Highest Level in Three Years
Over One-Third of Investors Expect Stock Market to Reach New Record Level in ‘07
Investors Less Pessimistic about Residential Real Estate Outlook
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Investor optimism soared to its highest level since 2004 reaching 103 for the month of January. This is a jump of 13 points from last month’s level of 90 and only the fifth time the Index has been above 100 since December 2000. The Index is conducted monthly and had a baseline score of 124 when it was established in October 1996.
Investors are beginning 2007 with a bullish outlook for the stock market. Thirty-seven percent of investors expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to end 2007 at a higher level than its record 2006 close. Of those expecting the DJIA to end 2007 higher, 66 percent expect an increase of five to ten percent, 22 percent expect an increase of less than five percent, and 11 percent predict an increase of more than ten percent. Only 15 percent of investors expect the DJIA to end 2007 lower than its 2006 close, and 46 percent expect it to close the year at about the same level as last year.
While investor sentiment continues to suggest that residential real estate market conditions continue to deteriorate, investor perceptions are somewhat less negative than they were in previous months. Two in three investors (65 percent) believe conditions in the residential real estate market nationwide are getting worse, down slightly from the 70 percent who felt this way in November and December of last year. Similarly, 50 percent of investors say conditions in their local community’s residential real estate market are getting worse, not getting better. This is a drop from 57 percent who felt this way in December.
“With inflation remaining under control, investors see the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut during 2007 and therefore believe the slide in the real estate market may be coming to an end. The continued rally in the stock market has also improved investors’ outlook for their own portfolios over the coming year,” said Mike Ryan, Head of UBS Wealth Management Research Americas.
Despite falling oil prices and sharply lower gas prices at the pump than during much of 2006, high energy prices continued to top investor concerns in January with 57 percent saying they believe energy prices are hurting the current investment climate “a lot.” This is essentially the same as the 54 percent who felt this way in November and the 55 percent who felt this way in December, but significantly lower than the 78 percent who held this view in August 2006. In December, 50 percent of investors pointed to international tensions as hurting the investment climate a lot and the same percentage pointed to the federal budget deficit as a major investor concern.
The Personal Dimension, which measures people’s optimism about their own portfolios over the next 12 months, jumped four points to 73 in January – the highest point for this dimension of the Index since March 2002 when it stood at 80. The Economic Dimension, which measures people’s optimism about the economy over the next 12 months, increased nine points in January and now stands at 30, its highest level since February 2004 when it also hit 30. This suggests that investors as a whole are somewhat optimistic about the economic outlook for 2007.
These findings are part of the 106th Index of Investor Optimism, which was conducted January 2-14, 2007. To track and measure Index changes on an ongoing basis, new samplings are taken monthly. Dennis J. Jacobe, Chief Economist for Gallup, said the sampling included 802 investors randomly selected from across the country. For this study, the American investor is defined as any person who is head of a household or a spouse in any household with total savings and investments of $10,000 or more. Nearly 40 percent of American households have at least this amount in savings and investments. The sampling error in the results is plus or minus four percentage points.
For more than 60 years, the Gallup Organization has been a recognized leader in the measurement and analysis of people’s attitudes, opinions and behavior. While best known for the Gallup Poll, founded in 1935, Gallup’s current activities consist largely of providing marketing and management research, advisory services and education to the world’s largest corporations and institutions.
UBS is one of the world’s leading financial firms, serving a discerning global client base. As an organization, it combines financial strength with an international culture that embraces change. As an integrated firm, UBS creates added value for clients by drawing on the combined resources and expertise of all its businesses.
UBS is the world's largest wealth manager, a top tier investment banking and securities firm, and one of the largest global asset managers. In Switzerland, UBS is the market leader in retail and commercial banking.
UBS is present in all major financial centers worldwide. It has offices in 50 countries, with about 39% of its employees working in the Americas, 36% in Switzerland, 16% in the rest of Europe and 9% in Asia Pacific. UBS's financial businesses employ around 75,000 people around the world. Its shares are listed on the SWX Swiss Stock Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).
Additional information about the Index of Investor Optimism can be found at www.ubs.com/investoroptimism
UBS Index of Investor Optimism overall trend
Overall Index
07 January 103
06 December 90
06 November 93
06 October 79
06 September 74
06 August 53
06 July 55
06 June 58
06 May 64
06 April 63
06 March 79
06 February 80
06 January 93
05 December 79
05 November 50
05 October 47
05 September 34
05 August 61
05 July 58
05 June 54
05 May 50
05 April 52
05 March 74
05 February 82
05 January 76
04 December 79
04 November 69
04 October 62
04 September 74
04 August 77
04 July 88
04 June 95
04 May 71
04 April 73
04 March 85
04 February 97
04 January 108
03 December 104
03 November 93
03 October 69
03 September 54
03 August 61
03 July 54
03 June 77
03 May 42
03 April 66
03 March 5
03 February 9
03 January 38
02 December 52
02 November 41
02 October 29
02 September 60
02 August 52
02 July 46
02 June 72
02 May 90
02 April 89
02 March 121
02 February 92
02 January 115
01 December 88
01 November 84
01 October 86
01 September 50
01 August 76
01 July 74
01 June 85
01 May 90
01 April 81
01 March 82
01 February 77
01 January 96
00 December 106
00 November 130
00 October 132
00 September 147
00 August 160
00 July 143
00 June 149
00 May 155
00 April 140
00 March 150
00 February 168
00 January 178
99 December 174
99 November 148
99 October 139
99 September 160
99 August 149
99 July 166
99 June 146
99 May 163
99 April 168
99 March 151
99 February 167
98 December 141
98 September 147
98 June 160
98 March 161
97 December 151
97 September 151
97 June 152
97 February 128
96 November 125
96 October 124