Avian Influenza News

[Regis]

The CDC...... I repeat the CDC, the ones LEAST likely to be public health alarmists are sounding the siren on H5N1 Flu pandemic.......

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BIRD_FLU?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

This is the SAME cdc that kept insisting the Anthrax deaths in '01 were "naturally occuring" long after it was public knowledge that the people were dying from a chemical weapon.

Now CONSIDERING the CDC is giving us a HEADS UP to clench 'em, and in light of the plummeting economy, in the words of Gordon Lightfoot in his 70's hit the "Edmond Fitzgerald" all I cann say is .....it's been good to know ya!

[MintJulep]

This is the SAME cdc that kept insisting the Anthrax deaths in '01 were "naturally occuring" long after it was public knowledge that the people were dying from a chemical weapon.LOL! So true. We're fucked. :(

[bellatrix]

Scientists have been warning us about this for quite some time and it looks like nothing was done about it. Looks like this is not a matter of if but when. It's some scary shit! :eek:

[Casey]

Bird Flu Fight Neglected, Urgency Needed -- FAO
Thu Feb 24, 2005 05:03 AM ET

http://wwwi.reuters.com/images/w148/2005-02-23T150830Z_01_GALAXY-DC-MDF870124_RTRIDSP_1_NEWS-BIRDFLU-DC.jpg
By Darren Schuettler

HO CHI MINH CITY (Reuters) - Donors and governments have shown an alarming lack of commitment to fight Asia's bird flu epidemic and the cost will only rise as the deadly and resilient virus persists, a top U.N. official said on Thursday.

Samuel Jutzi of the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said foreign donors gave only $18 million last year, far below the $100 million needed to help countries detect and react quickly to outbreaks.

"There have been a few donors, but again given the size of the problem it is just glaringly insufficient," he told reporters on the sidelines of a bird flu conference in Vietnam.

"I perceive an alarming lack of commitment among the donors and also among the affected governments," he said.

Bird flu experts at the three-day meeting in Ho Chi Minh City say the virus has become so entrenched in parts of Asia that it will take many years to eradicate.

The cost of a sustained effort to detect the virus, equip laboratories and vaccinate birds was now probably $300 million, Jutzi said.

But world attention has focused on the threat of the H5N1 strain mutating into a new lethal virus that could spread rapidly among humans, killing millions in a global pandemic.

The World Health Organization's Asia chief, Shigeru Omi, said on Wednesday the world was in the "gravest possible danger" of a pandemic. A top U.S. disease expert said this week the killer virus was the world's number one health threat.

SO FAR AWAY

Jutzi said protecting human health was critical, but an equal effort must be made to contain the virus before it spread to other parts of the world.

"The problem is far away so why should they invest in Indonesia or Vietnam," he said of the attitude of some donors.

His immediate concern is continued funding for bird flu networks in Southeast Asia, East Asia and South Asia after a $5.5 million FAO grant runs out this year.

Within these networks, countries face peer pressure to be more transparent in reporting outbreaks to their neighbors and to international bodies tracking the virus.

Some governments were criticized last year for being too slow to report or even trying to hide outbreaks. Losing the networks would be a major setback, Jutzi said.

"There is still some indication that countries are not effectively and immediately reporting as they should," he said.

A critical issue facing the Vietnam meeting, which ends on Friday, is how to overhaul Asia's open-air farms, where millions of farming families live alongside their poultry, fueling the spread of the disease.

The WHO wants recommendations that farmers stop raising animals together and keep birds in pens so they can't mix with wild birds or ducks believed to be natural carriers of the virus.

Wet markets, where animals are slaughtered on the spot with little regard for hygiene, should also be cleaned up, it said.

PERSUASION, PLEASE

But orders from the top will not work, said Frands Dolberg, a professor at Denmark's University of Aarhus who has studied the impact of bird flu in Vietnam, Indonesia, Laos and Cambodia.

At the height of last's year epidemic, 10 to 12 percent of 25 million to 40 million farm households in those four countries sold their birds despite efforts to limit poultry movements.

"It's a known farmer strategy that if you have a sick bird you sell it. You can pour all the money you want into policing, but this will happen to some degree," he said.

Governments needed to work harder to inform farmers about the risks of bird flu and persuade them to make sensible decisions, he said.

Some are studying a longer-term solution -- compartmentalisation -- where parts of the poultry industry would be declared safe to export birds while the battle against the virus continues in other areas. "This is a concept that is getting a lot of mileage in international animal health circles," said Anni McLeod, a FAO livestock policy officer.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7724757

[corpsman69]

The CDC...... I repeat the CDC, the ones LEAST likely to be public health alarmists are sounding the siren on H5N1 Flu pandemic.......

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BIRD_FLU?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

This is the SAME cdc that kept insisting the Anthrax deaths in '01 were "naturally occuring" long after it was public knowledge that the people were dying from a chemical weapon.

Now CONSIDERING the CDC is giving us a HEADS UP to clench 'em, and in light of the plummeting economy, in the words of Gordon Lightfoot in his 70's hit the "Edmond Fitzgerald" all I cann say is .....it's been good to know ya!

I believe I have already caught something like it. I have had bronchitis for two solid weeks now. Worse strain of influenza every year!

[Regis]

I believe I have already caught something like it. I have had bronchitis for two solid weeks now. Worse strain of influenza every year!

H5N1 thus far has a 75% lethality rate and it spares no one, in fact seems to target "young and healthy" in favor of traditionally weaker elderly.

[Regis]

The greastest fear H5N1 posed was in the worst case scenerio if it had mutated into something more sinister.... and it has.
H5N1 was previously feared mostly because of economic impact in poultry and human infection PREVIOUSLY only occurred from infected bird to human.
BUT...if you read between the line verbage of the CDC's message in which they proclaim "....has rarely been transmitted human to human" THIS is conformation that shit has hit the fan in that they said "RARELY" instead of, HAS NOT, HAS NEVER.... they use "rarely" which says mutation to a human>human pathogen has already occurred.

[el_diablo]

i just wet myself

[Elli]

H5N1 thus far has a 75% lethality rate and it spares no one, in fact seems to target "young and healthy" in favor of traditionally weaker elderly.

This is terrifying.

[DEVIL DOG]

I aint scared. I got the flu once when I was a kid, and I have been immune to it ever since. Spent plenty of time around people with the flu, but I never catch it.

[anomie]

Well, It is the year of the rooster after all. . .

[Casey]

(Vancouver) Island arms for pandemic
Fears of deadly flu prompt battle plan, expected by summer

Cindy E. Harnett
Times Colonist
Sunday, February 27, 2005

In Hanoi, Vietnam, a man transporting chickens has them disinfected. A new case of bird flu in Vietnam last week heightened the sense of urgency as a conference of experts in Ho Chi Minh City ended with calls for concerted action to prevent a possible global pandemic.

Amid fears a deadly flu pandemic will soon sweep the globe, Canada is stockpiling antiviral medications while local health officials are scrambling to put the final details on an emergency plan for Vancouver Island.

"We are anticipating being ready with a pandemic-specific plan for Vancouver Island before the summer," said Murray Fyfe, medical health officer with the Vancouver Island Health Authority specializing in communicable diseases.

The plan would include everything from self-imposed quarantines -- people staying home -- to shutting down public spaces and transit, said health authority chief medical health officer Richard Stanwick. Elected officials ranging from mayors to the minister of health would be involved in all of these decisions, he said.

Flu pandemics strike every 10 to 40 years. The last one to hit was in 1968.

The avian flu, which has devastated the poultry industry in Southeast Asia and killed 45 people in the region in the last year, poses the gravest danger of becoming a global pandemic, according to Shigeru Omi, head of the World Health Organization. Omi and other health experts attended an international conference on bird flu held in Vietnam last week.

The concern is that the bird flu virus -- H5N1 -- will threaten millions of lives if it mutates into a form that is more virulent and easily transmissible among humans.

H5N1 is a relatively new H-type virus. H1 was behind the notorious 1918 influenza pandemic that killed millions, while H2 brought about the 1957 Asian flu outbreak and H3 caused the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

The current avian flu has occasionally infected humans in close contact with the birds, but the strain has fizzled before spreading further.

For the virus to become a pandemic, it has to easily spread between humans.

That could happen if someone becomes simultaneously infected with avian flu and another flu strain, or the avian flu virus mutates sufficiently to be able to transmit from person to person.

But bird flu experts attending the Vietnam conference agreed there is time to curtail the spread if quick action is taken to stem the virus in animals.

Canada has been planning for a pandemic since the mid-1990s and B.C. has its own plan updated almost every year. The last B.C. Centre for Disease Control plan was posted in February 2003.

When SARS struck, killing nearly 800 people in 2003, all of those plans went into high gear.

Dr. Eric Young, deputy provincial health officer, said B.C. is one of the best-prepared provinces in the country.

"And I think we are probably one of the best-prepared countries in the world to deal with a pandemic."

Nevertheless, B.C.'s hospitals are at capacity and resources are already stretched.

If a pandemic strikes, it's estimated that as many as 4.5 million to 10.6 million Canadians would become sick, 34,000 to 138,000 would need hospitalization and between 11,000 and 58,000 would die.

"Once it starts, it will move fairly quickly because of the advances we have now in travel that were not present in the past pandemics," said Fyfe.

In B.C., an estimated 1.8 million people would become ill -- close to half the population. Between 2,000 and 18,000 would require hospitalization and between 800 and 6,000 would die.

Health officials are looking into how to develop a vaccine as quickly as possible, since vaccines must be tailor-made to the pandemic strain. They also have to figure out how to store and distribute it.

Several million doses -- which could take up to six months to develop and produce -- would be needed each month, said Young.

"The goal in Canada is to be able to provide vaccine for every man woman and child in this country in the event of a pandemic and we're on our way to be able to do that."

Canada is one of a few countries with a designated pandemic vaccine maker, ID Biomedical in Montreal, which is capable of producing the mass quantities of vaccine needed in a pandemic.

And last week, $34 million was earmarked in the federal budget for the development of technology to produce a vaccine quickly.

Even if that groundwork is laid, it could take up to eight months to develop a workable vaccine and immunize Canadians after a pandemic strain is identified.

The saving grace for Canadians, said Fyfe, is that pandemics typically hit in waves.

Once the strain is identified, for example in Asia, it would reach Canada three to five months afterward. There would be a lull before the second wave, and possibly a third wave, hit.

"The majority of illnesses and deaths would occur in the second wave and that's going to be more than six months after the pandemic was first identified," said Fyfe. "We would expect we would have a vaccine available if not part-way through the first wave, then certainly by the second wave."

The federal government announced last month it is purchasing 16 million doses of antiviral medications for distribution to the provinces and territories.

"We are one of the few countries stockpiling these antivirals," said Young.

About two doses a day for five days would be taken as treatment, one a day for at least 10 days as a prophylactic.

Antivirals can be used in the treatment of influenza or as a preventive drug for those at high risk. Although only a strain-specific vaccine can prevent an infection, antivirals can help by decreasing the severity and duration of that infection.

That all sounds good, but if SARS awoke the international community to the need for infrastructure and planning to deal with an epidemic, then it was last fall's flu-vaccine distribution problem, coupled with overwhelming demand in B.C., that threw up red flags for health authorities at home. Doctors complained they weren't getting the vaccine quickly enough to meet the need.

"That's why people are working so hard," said Young. "Clearly, there are many logistical issues that come up."

Fyfe said last fall's problems tested the system to the extreme, which has resulted in a number of improvements now pending. For example, local access to vaccines would be improved by setting up various distribution points throughout the Island rather than having just one central location, said Stanwick. Plans for distribution of both vaccines and antivirals will be up for discussion when Canada's public health officials meet in Edmonton March 6-7.

Another component of the detailed plan for dealing with a pandemic in B.C. is designating hospitals and alternate care centres for the sick. With many B.C. hospitals already crowded, planners have to be creative. Sites that would handle an outbreak have not yet been designated, but hospitals that are no longer in use, schools, community centres and gymnasiums are all possibilities, said Fyfe.

"We've got time to roll out our plan. It's not like an earthquake that hits and you've got to have everything responding today or tomorrow. But we want to have things in order as much as possible so that's why we are doing all this planning right now."

Planning won't stop a pandemic, but it will reduce the number of British Columbians who become ill, he said.

Vancouver Islanders can play a part by ensuring they're immunized against this year's flu before flying to Asia, said Fyfe. One of the major fears is that someone with this year's flu will pick up the bird flu, and the two viruses will breed a virulent new strain that is highly infectious among humans.

"Knowing we will have a heads-up of three to six months, I'm confident we will have the details we need to respond for Vancouver Island," said Fyfe.

http://www.canada.com/victoria/timescolonist/news/story.html?id=b6460289-d04b-4760-8235-1c118768230d

[Regis]

Tamiflu people, has been shown to be the only thing shown to be effective in helping the symptoms of H5N1 flu. BUT must be taken within the first 72 hours when symptoms start.Tamiflu can be found online medical services that will do an online physian consult (for a small fee) and then will call in a prescription for you at your local pharmacy.Get it now folks cause when the shit does hit the fan there won't be any left.

[al-Canine]

Britain reveals flu pandemic plan

Millions of doses of drugs to ward off a flu pandemic are to be stockpiled, the government has announced.

Ministers said without the antiviral drugs an outbreak could kill 50,000.

Experts say a pandemic is inevitable and will probably emerge in Asia if bird flu mutates with human flu, creating a highly infectious new virus.

The UK Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan also includes quarantine measures, as well as arrangements for the emergency services.

Concerts and football matches could both be banned and travel restricted in the event of an outbreak to stop the virus spreading.

But the government decided against buying up vaccines as ordinary flu vaccines will not be 100% effective because the strain which would be responsible for any future pandemic has not emerged yet.

It could take up to six months to develop a vaccine once a pandemic has started.

Symptoms

Instead, the Department of Health is to stockpile 14.6m doses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu, which works by reducing the symptoms and the risk of a carrier passing on the virus, at a cost of £180m.

It will be enough for a quarter of the population - the World Health Organization's recommended level.

Health officials will be the first in line for the drugs, with the remainder being handed out to whichever part of the population is deemed most at risk.



What other countries are doing

US - Has been stockpiling antiviral drugs and placed orders for 4m vaccine doses

Italy and France - Both placed orders for 2m vaccine doses

Canada and Australia - Have been buying enough antiviral drugs to cover a quarter of the population

Japan and Holland - Also purchasing antiviral drugs but not on the same scale as others


Several countries, including Canada, the US and Australia, have already started building up reserves of the drugs.

Other countries have also placed orders for a vaccine.

Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said the plan had been published as it must be assumed the government would be unable to stop a future flu pandemic reaching the UK.

"When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life.

"The steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the disease's impact on our population."

Experts have become increasingly worried over recent months about the threat of a pandemic.

Pandemics

There were three flu pandemics during the 20th century. The worst one in 1918 killed up to 50m, including more than 200,000 in the UK.

The Asian flu outbreak in 1957 and Hong Kong pandemic 11 years later both killed 1m each.



Killer flu pandemics

1918 Spanish flu killed 50m

1957 Asian flu killed around 1m

1968 Hong Kong flu killed 1m

And fears of a new pandemic were heightened a month ago after scientists said they believed the bird flu, which has killed 46 people in south east Asia, had been passed from human to human for the first time.

Leading UK expert John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's School of Medicine, said: "If the flu does arrive we will have to throw the book at it."

But he said the public should not become too alarmed and could take comfort that the government was putting a plan in place now.

Professor Pat Troop, chief executive of the Health Protection Agency, said it was a matter of when, not if, the flu would strike.

"We do not want to cause panic but we have to take it seriously.

"We have to do this planning and also stockpiling and if it does happen we will have to put in quite tough public health measures."

A WHO spokeswoman said it was a "good idea" to start stockpiling antiviral drugs but said there was still work that could be done on vaccines.

"You can prepare the ground. There are licensing hurdles to be scaled and there is research that can be done to see what can provoke an immune response so that it will take as little time as possible when the time comes."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/health/4305813.stm

Published: 2005/03/01 12:35:36 GMT

© BBC MMV

[el_diablo]

Leading UK expert John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's School of Medicine, said: "If the flu does arrive we will have to throw the book at it."

But he said the public should not become too alarmed and could take comfort that the government was putting a plan in place now.

in other words, drink the Kool-Aid.

[Dajjal]

If that bird flu reaches Britain it will probably be the death of me, because for one thing I ain't going to stop kissing my lovebird, and for another thing, if anyone try's to come and destroy her, I will fucking shoot them.

[Alli]

Date: Mon 28 Mar 2005
From: Mary Marshall <tropical.forestry@btinternet.com>
Source: Reuters Alertnews, 28 Mar 2005 [edited]
<http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SEO20433.htm>


South Korea ready to help North contain bird flu
-----------------------------------------------
South Korea is ready to help North Korea contain its bird flu outbreak,
government officials said on Monday [28 Mar 2005], and a local analyst said
the reclusive state probably could not battle the virus alone.

In an official media report on Sunday [27 Mar 2005], North Korea confirmed
an outbreak of bird flu at 2 chicken farms in the capital Pyongyang. It
said hundreds of thousands of birds had been culled in the country, which
has suffered from severe food shortages.

"We are willing to offer help if a request comes from the North," a South
Korean government official said by telephone. Seoul will also take
preventive measures to make sure the virus does not spread south of its
border with North Korea.

An official with the World Health Organization said the group had been
contacted by Pyongyang about the outbreak, and they would coordinate work
on counter-measures.

It was not clear whether the strain of virus involved was H5N1, which has
been known to jump from birds to humans. That strain has killed 49 people
since 2003. The North's state media said no humans had been infected. "We
do not know yet what strain it may be, but it could be the H5N1 strain,"
said Dr. Kumara Rai, director of communicable diseases for WHO in its
Southeast Asia region.

The WHO has an office in Pyongyang, Rai said, adding the North moved
effectively to counter SARS when it swept through Asia and other parts of
the world in 2003. He was encouraged by early reports that the North had
eradicated poultry. "This is a good sign that they are moving quickly," Rai
said by telephone from his office in India.

Kim Young-hoon, a senior fellow at the state-run Korea Rural Economic
Institute in Seoul, said the outbreak may have gotten out of hand, and the
North had gone public to get international help. "North Korea came to admit
the bird flu cases to receive international help. Based on the North's
announcement, we also suspect North Korea has reached the stage that they
could not control the disease any more," Kim said.

South Korean unification, health and agriculture ministry officials are
discussing Seoul's response. The response will probably include tightening
quarantine measures on visitors and vehicles from the South returning from
North Korea, another official said.

There are 2 main points of contact where South Koreans can head to the
North. The 1st is a joint industrial complex just north of the
demilitarized zone, and the 2nd is a mountain resort in the North operated
by a South Korean venture. South Korean businesses operate factories in the
North Korean city of Kaesong, a fledgling industrial complex 10 km (6
miles) north of the heavily militarized border, the Demilitarized Zone.
Kaesong is also less than 200 km south of Pyongyang.

South Korea's Hyundai Asan corporation runs a resort at Mount Kumgang, just
north of the border on the east coast. The resort has been visited by over
800 000 people since 1998.

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/askus/f?p=2400:1001:15445589175886819206::NO::F2400_P100 1_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,28507

[breathe]

it's really avian spongiform encephalopathy or mad chicken and mad turkey..
coming from the USDA's allowing blood meal, dead mammals
and other cadaver parts to be fed to chickens

The WHO says BSE's incubation period is 50 years

[Trinity]

HANOI - Fears of bird flu were on the rise Monday, as Vietnam reported another possible human death from the disease and China rushed to inoculate millions of farm birds.

China ordered the inoculation of millions of farm birds.
Health officials in Vietnam said preliminary tests show that a man who died last week in a Hanoi hospital was suffering from bird flu.

If confirmed, the death will bring to 38 the number of people killed by bird flu in Vietnam since the virus infected humans in late 2003.

According to official records, 12 Thais and four Cambodians have also died from avian flu.

Meanwhile, China was rushing millions of doses of bird flu vaccine to the western province of Qinghai where migrating geese were found dead from the disease earlier this month.

Tests indicate they died from the virulent form of avian flu, H5N1.

A news report Monday said officials have ordered that all farm birds in the area be given the shot.

They're worried about 178 bar-headed geese that died in a nature reserve in Qinghai, the first reported cases of avian flu in China since last July.

The geese migrate along routes from Siberia to New Zealand and it's feared infected geese could spread the virus to domesticated geese and ducks.

Chinese authorities earlier announced a series of other measure, including:

Closure of nature reserves.

Asking the public to refrain from contact with poultry.

Imposing quarantine measures in the area where the birds were found.


The World Health Organization has warned of a pandemic should the virus mutate and develop the ability to spread from person to person. Most cases so far have been traced to contact with sick birds.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2005/05/23/bird-flu-050523.html

[Jake]

This is not good--

Migrating geese could carry bird flu out of Asia

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The spread of avian flu virus among migrating geese and other birds at a wildlife refuge in China means the birds could carry the devastating virus out of Asia, scientists reported on Wednesday.

This makes avian flu even more of a global threat than it already is, the scientists said in reports published jointly by the journals Science and Nature. Health officials fear avian influenza could cause a pandemic of human disease.

At least 1,000 dead birds have been found at Lake Qinghaihu, a protected nature reserve in western China, according to two separate reports. United Nations scientists said last week the number had topped 5,000.

"The occurrence of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus infection in migrant waterfowl indicates that this virus has the potential to be a global threat," Jinhua Liu of China Agricultural University, George Gao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and colleagues wrote in their report in Science.

"Lake Qinghaihu is a breeding center for migrant birds that congregate from Southeast Asia, Siberia, Australia and New Zealand."

The latest outbreak of the virus that started in 2003 has killed 39 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia. The World Health Organization has said the virus would kill millions of people worldwide if it acquires the ability to pass easily from human to human.

So far it has not, but influenza is extremely mutation-prone.

The virus, which affects ducks with little harm but which kills chickens, had not before been seen to transmit among wild birds.

KEY BREEDING GROUND

"This lake is one of the most important breeding locations for migratory birds that overwinter in Southeast Asia, Tibet and India," Gao's team wrote.

"Several species were infected, including the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus), great black-headed gull (Larus ichthyaetus) and brownheaded gull (Larus brunnicephalus)."

One of the symptoms seen in the wild birds was diarrhea, which could mean the virus would spread in contaminated water.

Yi Guan of the University of Hong Kong and colleagues did a genetic analysis of the virus taken from the dead birds and found it is closely related to the strain that has caused human illness in Thailand and Vietnam.

But the sequences appeared to have mutated slightly, they added.

"This outbreak may help to spread the virus over and beyond the Himalayas and has important implications for developing control strategies," they wrote in their report, published in Nature.

It spread quickly, causing paralysis and staggering, they said.

"By 4 May, bird mortality was more than 100 a day; by 20 May, the outbreak had spread to other islets, with some 1,500 birds dead."

Their genetic analysis suggested the virus was introduced just one time to the lake, meaning a single infection could have spread quickly.

The outbreak could burn itself out, but the large migratory bird population at the lake made this unlikely, they wrote.

"The viruses might also move to other migratory species that could act as carriers, remaining highly pathogenic for domestic chickens and possibly humans."

United Nations officials said on Tuesday that bird flu is entrenched in Asia and predicted it would take up to a decade to rid the region of the virus.

At a meeting in Kuala Lumpur, they said more than $100 million would be spent over the next three years on improving the detection and reporting of outbreaks, and in combating the virus.

[NYer]

Fatalities in Sichuan Linked to H5N1 Bird Flu Migration?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 24, 2005

The Chinese news Web site Sina.com reported Saturday the people infected had symptoms like fever, lack of energy, vomiting, bleeding from blood vessels beneath the skin, and shock.....

Animal viruses are also being scrutinized because of bird flu fears.

The above comments are from an AP story on the mysterious deaths of farmers in several villages near Ziyang in Sichuan province southeast of Chengdu. The wire report describes 20 patients with symptoms. Nine have died and 6 more are in critical condition. Only one patient ahs been discharged. The patients had been admitted between June 24 and July 21, so the delay in a diagnosis is cause for concern. Earlier reports also describe patients as being dizzy which lead to coma in some cases. These descriptions sound similar to a t least one death in Thailand after slaughtering a wild boar in May. There was no diagnosis in that cluster of cases either.

The proximity of both sets of cases to H5N1 outbreaks is cause for heightened concern. The 1918 pandemic had many mis-diagnosed cases, including those with neurological complications. H5N1 has been shown to be neurotropic in the lab, and variants with the PB2 polymorphism E627K have been isolated from mouse brains from isolates in Hong Kong as well as duck meat imported to Japan from Shandiong.

The E627K polymorphism is found in all human influenza A isolates, but is rarely detected in avian influenza. However, all H5N1 isolates from Qinghai Lake had E627K, signally possible neurological complications in humans infected with H5N1 with this polymorphisms. The polymorphism has been found in H5N1 isolates infected in 1997 in Hong Kong as well as 2004 in Vietnam and Thailand. Most of the isolates from tigers at the Sri Racha tiger zoo also had the change and the tigers had neurological symptoms before they died. Many H5N1 isolates from swine also have the E627K polymorphism.

Ziyang is just southeast of Chengdu which is about 400 miles southeast of Qinghai Lake. Some boxun reports have indicated bird flu is widespread in Qinghai province which is adjacent to Sichuan Province. Hong Kong radio reports indicate villagers in Sichuan say the deaths are being under-reprted. Boxun reports have also indicated China has isolated 10 distinct H5N1 variants and most can infect humans.

The sequence of H5N1 from Qingahi has been released and analysis indicates that several of the H5N1 polymorphisms that had previously been found only in isolates from Vietnam and Thailand are also in the isolates from Qinghai. Qinghai isolates have also acquired other polymorphisms normally found in mammalian isolates, such as the E627K polymorphism described above. The Qingahi isolates also has polymorhisms commonly found in migratory birds including polymorphisms linked to European isolates. Similar European polymorphisms have been found in isolates form Primorie and Chany Lake reserves in Russia, where over 500 bird have died recently.

As birds at Qingahi Lake and nature reserves in Russia begin to migrate to the south, west, and east, there is concern that such a migration might lead to a catastrophic spread of H5N1.

Human deaths in the adjacent province of Sichuan may indicate that such spread has already begun.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07240501/H5N1_Sichuan_Spread.html

[Atlas]

Not to cast aspersions, but I see nothing on the sina.com site regarding the original article.

There are however a whole series of articles on school kids sickened and died from bad Hep A vaccine. It's amazing this didnt hit the national news, 216 plus sick, three arrests?


http://english.sina.com/z/050629vaccine/index.shtml

[NYer]

Try here -
http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-07/25/content_462910.htm

[Atlas]

Chinese Team Studies Mysterious Illness

By MIN LEE
Associated Press Writer

July 24, 2005, 12:36 PM EDT

HONG KONG -- Hong Kong hospitals were on the lookout Sunday for a mysterious illness apparently related to pig farming that has killed nine people in a southern Chinese city and reportedly causes fever-like symptoms, vomiting and internal bleeding.

Twenty people were hospitalized with the disease from June 24 to July 21 in the city of Ziyang in southern Sichuan province, the Hong Kong government said Saturday, citing information from Sichuan officials.

Nine died, one was discharged and 10 are still in the hospital, including six in critical condition, according to the Hong Kong government.

World Health Organization spokesman Bob Dietz said the cases may be linked to farmers who have slaughtered either pigs or sheep. The Chinese government has dispatched a team to investigate. For now, the disease doesn't appear to be spreading, Dietz said.

The unidentified son of one of the victims said in footage aired on Hong Kong television station Cable TV that his father fell ill after slaughtering and eating part of a sick pig.

The pigs in question were infected with streptococcus bacteria, a common pathogen in humans and domestic animals. The humans suffered from poisoning-related shock syndrome and were infected acutely, an unidentified worker at the hospital treating the patients said in a phone interview played on Cable TV.

The Chinese news Web site Sina.com reported Saturday the people infected had symptoms like fever, lack of energy, vomiting, bleeding from blood vessels beneath the skin, and shock.

Hong Kong's Hospital Authority has asked its hospitals to notify health authorities of any patients with similar symptoms, spokesman Raymond Lo said Sunday. The territory is wary of diseases spreading here from China since severe acute respiratory syndrome was brought to the territory by a mainlander in 2003. The disease eventually killed 299 people in Hong Kong.

Animal viruses are also being scrutinized because of bird flu fears. Health officials fear bird flu, which has killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia since 2003, may spark the next human flu pandemic, killing millions, by evolving into a form that is easily transmissible among humans.

Copyright 2005 Newsday Inc.

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-hong-kong-mystery-illness,0,6380522,print.story?coll=sns-ap-nationworld-headlines

[al-Canine]

Officials Have Not Found Source of Outbreak

By Alan Sipress
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, July 25, 2005

SERPONG, Indonesia -- When Iwan Siswara Rafei, a government auditor, and his two young daughters died suddenly this month, there was panic in their middle-class suburb along with reports that they were Indonesia's first casualties of bird flu.

Neighbors anxiously traded rumors across the metal fences surrounding their neatly landscaped yards. Mothers kept their children from playing on the palm-lined streets. Some families in this quiet California-style subdivision of bankers, businessmen and doctors considered packing up their belongings in their SUVs and abandoning their homes.

Most residents of the Villa Melati Mas bedroom community on the western outskirts of Jakarta had paid little mind to reports of avian influenza, which has devastated poultry flocks across Indonesia during the last two years and killed dozens of people in other Southeast Asian countries.

Then the horror came home to 7 Pondok Cempaka St.

"We've really got a panic attack," said Kresentia Widyanto, 40, a mother of three with shoulder-length auburn hair who wore a floral housedress. "People have been asking, 'Do we need to evacuate and go somewhere else, to vacate this place?' "

For 15 years, Widyanto and her husband, a physician, have lived around the corner from Rafei's brown cottage with its pitched, terra-cotta roof and small purple flowers in planters out front. Widyanto's son is 8 years old, the same age as Rafei's daughter, Sabrina. When the girl was hospitalized late last month with a high fever, diarrhea and a cough, word spread quickly.

Rafei's second daughter, 1-year-old Thalita, developed similar symptoms days later, followed by Rafei, 37. By July 14, all three had died, with Sabrina surviving the longest.

Indonesian health officials announced last week that they suspected bird flu; test results, received Wednesday from a specialized laboratory in Hong Kong, confirmed it. Rafei's sample tested positive for the highly lethal virus while a specimen from the older daughter showed she, too, had been exposed. No test was done for the younger one.

So far, nearly all of the avian flu victims in Asia have contracted the disease from infected birds. International health experts warn that the virus could spark a pandemic, killing tens of millions of people, if the strain evolves into a form easily passed among people.

"I'm wondering why this happened. I'm confused. Can we get this? We're trying to be calm," Widyanto said anxiously as she stocked up on broccoli and cauliflower from a vegetable peddler plying the subdivision's cobblestone streets. She has forbidden her children to eat outside the home in case the virus can spread through food. "We've stopped going to Kentucky Fried Chicken," she said.

Stoking the neighborhood's fear is uncertainty about the outbreak's cause. Unlike the rural villages of Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, where other bird flu deaths have occurred, there are no farmers or live chickens in Villa Melati Mas.

"The mystery about how they got the disease makes us really nervous and government officials can't explain it," said Listari, 33, whose husband is a banker, standing in her front doorway, hands folded on a pregnant stomach. Like many Indonesians, she uses one name.

Around the sprawling subdivision, a few parrots and other pet birds twittered in cages hanging from front porches and balconies. But neighbors buy their meat at the local supermarket, tucked amid recently built malls and strip shopping centers, not from traditional live poultry markets blamed in some other deaths.

"We couldn't imagine this happening here," Listari said. "It's so bizarre, so strange."

Rumors have been rampant. Worried relatives call from elsewhere in Indonesia, agitated by the latest speculation on national television. Neighbors have telephoned the local leader, Sunaryo, in the middle of the night, alarmed by gossip that Rafei's wife had also died. In truth, his wife, son and two maids remain healthy.

"We'd heard of bird flu before but didn't pay attention," said Sunaryo, 62, a retired executive who volunteers as the neighborhood leader. "We got terrified because we didn't know the truth about this disease."

Shortly after the deaths, Sunaryo called into a television talk show featuring the nation's health minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, and asked her to visit the neighborhood to address the residents directly.

More than 200 people crowded into the local swim and tennis club that weekend for the meeting. Flanked by fellow officials, the minister briefed neighbors about the experience of other countries with bird flu. She urged them not to worry, guaranteeing them that bird flu could not be transmitted person to person.

Despite repeated assurances from government officials, the tests conducted on Rafei and his older daughter, coupled with the timing of the three deaths, suggest the virus might have been passed among family members, according to health experts. Although scientists have not proved that bird flu can spread from one person to another, heath experts say it is possible that transmission among family members has already occurred in about a half-dozen cases in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

Rafei's wife and his mother, speaking in interviews outside their house, said they did not know how he and the daughters got sick. Rafei was a busy professional who set out early every morning on his two-hour commute to Jakarta's downtown financial district and returned late in the evening, leaving little time for side trips to farms or chicken markets, they explained. His wife, Lin Rosalina, eyes red from crying, said she was also certain her children had not come into contact with live poultry.

"I'm very sure," she added, switching from Indonesian to English to make the point.

Sunaryo, the neighborhood leader, said he also remained skeptical about official reports that Rafei and his daughters caught the virus from birds.

"We don't know how it happened," he said, sitting on his porch and holding his 18-month-old grandson close. "If we don't know the cause, it might be spreading silently."

©*2005*The Washington Post Company


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/24/AR2005072401146.html

[NYer]

China Halts Pork Exports From Two Cities Amid Disease (Update3)

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese authorities halted exports of pork products from two cities in southwest China, where a disease linked to pigs has killed 19 people and left 61 others ill, the Hong Kong government said.

Pork products from the cities of Ziyang and Neijiang in Sichuan province were suspended as a precautionary measure, the Hong Kong Health Department said in a statement late yesterday. China is the world's biggest pork producer.

Initial tests in China suggest the illness is streptococcus suis, which farmers and butchers probably contracted through open wounds during the slaughter or handling of infected pigs. Symptoms include acute fever, headaches and dizziness, according to China's health ministry. The more serious cases can cause meningitis and send a patient into a coma, it said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aykPgu7FoNIk&refer=top_world_news

[al-Canine]

Avian flu strain in Russia said to pose human risk

Hundreds of birds have died in Siberia; Quarantine measures urged

MOSCOW -- Investigators have determined that a strain of bird flu virus infecting fowl in Russia is the type that can infect humans, the Agriculture Ministry said today.

The virus caused the deaths of hundreds of birds in a section of Siberia this month, but no human infections have been reported.

In a brief statement, the ministry identified the virus as avian flu type A H5N1.

"That raises the need for undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope," the statement said. Ministry officials could not immediately be reached for elaboration.

Strains of bird flu have been hitting flocks throughout Asia and some fatal human cases have been reported there.

Since 2003, bird flu has killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, which reported its first three human deaths this month.

The outbreak in Russia's Novosibirsk region apparently started about two weeks ago when large numbers of chicken, geese, ducks and turkeys began dying. Officials say that all dead or infected birds were incinerated. But it is unclear whether that would effectively stop the virus from spreading.

An animal health expert at the Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said it was still not known how many birds have been exposed. Birds can be "reservoirs, animals which are infected but not showing clinical signs" of the virus, Juan Lubroth told The Associated Press.

Lubroth, a veterinarian, said the concern was whether birds that appear healthy might have the virus. "If you're a sick bird or a dead bird, you're not migrating anywhere. Sick birds don't fly." Thus, samples should be taken of birds which look healthy, he said.

He called for greater international funding to prevent infection to humans by setting up laboratories and epidemiology studies. "We don't see the donor community coming together" on the bird flu fight, he said.

Earlier this week, Russia's chief government epidemiologist, Gennady Onishchenko, said the appearance of the virus in Russia could be due to migrating birds that rest on the Siberian region's lakes.

A recent report released by the journal Science said the finding of the H5N1 infection in migrant birds at Qinghai Lake in western China "indicates that this virus has the potential to be a global threat."

The reports echo concerns voiced by the World Health Organization, which urged China to step up its testing of wild geese and gulls. A WHO official estimated that the flu had killed more than 5,000 wild birds in western China.

The outbreak was first detected about two months ago in bar-headed geese at China's remote saltwater lake, which is a key breeding location for migratory birds that overwinter in southeast Asia, Tibet and India. The virus has hit that species the hardest, but also affects brown-headed gulls and great black-headed gulls.

Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization in Geneva, said, "We would hope that these samples would be sent to a WHO international reference lab outside the country. This is standard for verification."

"To confirm that it is H5N1, it is important that these tests are done outside the country," he said.

Associated Press correspondents Frances D'Emilio in Rome and Bradley S. Klapper in Geneva contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2005, The Associated Press

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/bal-birdflu0729,1,5755845.story?coll=bal-nationworld-headlines

[NYer]

World Not Set To Deal With Flu
Strategy for Pandemic Needed, Experts Say

By David Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, July 31, 2005; Page A01

Public health officials preparing to battle what they view as an inevitable influenza pandemic say the world lacks the medical weapons to fight the disease effectively, and will not have them anytime soon.

Public health specialists and manufacturers are working frantically to develop vaccines, drugs, strategies for quarantining and treating the ill, and plans for international cooperation, but these efforts will take years. Meanwhile, the most dangerous strain of influenza to appear in decades -- the H5N1 "bird flu" in Asia -- is showing up in new populations of birds, and occasionally people, almost by the month, global health officials say.


An Indonesian farmer prepares to burn dead chickens suspected of having bird flu. The virus has been reported in about 100 people in Asia since 2003.
An Indonesian farmer prepares to burn dead chickens suspected of having bird flu. The virus has been reported in about 100 people in Asia since 2003. (By Rizky Noval -- Associated Press)

If the virus were to start spreading in the next year, the world would have only a relative handful of doses of an experimental vaccine to defend against a disease that, history shows, could potentially kill millions. If the vaccine proved effective and every flu vaccine factory in the world started making it, the first doses would not be ready for four months. By then, the pathogen would probably be on every continent.

Theoretically, antiviral drugs could slow an outbreak and buy time. The problem is only one licensed drug, oseltamivir, appears to work against bird flu. At the moment, there is not enough stockpiled for widespread use. Nor is there a plan to deploy the small amount that exists in ways that would have the best chance of slowing the disease.

The public, conditioned to believe in the power of modern medicine, has heard little of how poorly prepared the world is to confront a flu pandemic, which is an epidemic that strikes several continents simultaneously and infects a substantial portion of the population.

Since the current wave of avian flu began sweeping through poultry in Southeast Asia more than 18 months ago, international and U.S. health authorities have been warning of the danger and trying to mobilize. Research on vaccines has accelerated, efforts to build up drug supplies are underway, and discussions take place regularly on developing a coordinated global response.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will spend $419 million in pandemic planning this year. The National Institutes of Health's influenza research budget has quintupled in the past five years.

"The secretary or the chief of staff -- we have a discussion about flu almost every day," said Bruce Gellin, head of HHS's National Vaccine Program Office. This week, a committee is scheduled to deliver to HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt an updated plan for confronting a pandemic.

Despite these efforts, the world's lack of readiness to meet the threat is huge, experts say.

More ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/30/AR2005073001429.html

[NYer]

Could this outbreak be, in fact, something far worse?

China Bug – Is It Ebola-like Bird Flu?
Andy Ho
The Straits Times, 28 July 2005


CHINA's official Xinhua news agency confirmed this week earlier wire reports about the mysterious deaths of 27 farmers in several villages around the cities of Ziyang and Neijiang in Sichuan province.

Another 41 people in Sichuan have also fallen seriously ill.

All victims had been exposed to swine and developed high fever, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, and 'became comatose later with bruises under the skin', according to Xinhua. The provincial health authorities insist that 'the disease is absolutely not Sars, anthrax or bird flu'.

Instead, they ascribed the outbreak to a common swine bug called streptococcus suis. Based on information from the Chinese, the World Health Organisation (WHO) agrees that the symptoms 'seem consistent with' the diagnosis.

Could the WHO be wrong? Are the provincial authorities prevaricating?

But, first, what is this bug and why are these Sichuan cases less likely to be it? According to The Merck Veterinary Manual, this is a bacterium that lives in the noses, throats, guts and genitalia of pigs. Thus, farmers exposed to droplets of swine saliva, as well as slaughterhouse workers, butchers, and cooks who have open wounds who handle pork and pig innards could become infected.

Yet, despite its prevalence in pigs - up to 15 per cent of a herd could be carriers - human cases are rare as only one out of a total of 35 serotypes of the bacterium causes serious infections in people.

In humans, the bug invades the membranes covering the brain and spinal cord causing meningitis, with severe headaches, high fever, vomiting, confusion, stiff neck, loss of hearing and coma. There can also be bleeding from blood vessels beneath the skin, and the patient can go into toxic shock, with damage to the heart.

Sounds like the mysterious illness in Sichuan?

Note, however, that most cases have been reported in northern Europe and southern Asia, where intensive swine management practices are used, perhaps at least on the scale seen in the Pulau Bulan farm that supplies Singapore with about 6,500 pigs every week, according to the AVA. That does not sound like rural China.

Human cases have been seen in Singapore too, but they are very rare. In fact, until this Chinese claim, less than 150 human cases have been reported worldwide.

A total of 68 patients in Sichuan sounds unlikely for various other reasons too.

First, the bacterium is easily treated in pigs with penicillin. Though it can survive for long periods, it is also easily destroyed with soaps and dilute disinfectants.

Secondly, the high mortality also makes the cause somewhat less likely to be bacterial in origin, as bacterial infections are rarely as lethal.

Thirdly, the bug seems to spread between herds not only through the introduction of apparently healthy carrier pigs but also by flies, which can travel up to 2km between farms on their own. If flies got on to vehicles, they could go farther. Carcasses of dead pigs could also transport the bacteria.

But up to 75 villages are affected in Sichuan. These are clustered around 40 townships in different counties, which represent large geographical distances. This suggests the possibility of transmission by migratory birds.

Quite apart from the fear that pigs, which often carry the human flu virus, could contract bird flu and act as a 'blender' to speed up the process of its mutation, several facts suggest that the mysterious illness sounds a lot like influenza, some scientists believe.

Far-fetched?

In December 1979, the British Medical Journal published a letter from an army physician that had laid undiscovered in a trunk in Detroit for 60 years. In the 1918 letter, the doctor who was attending to soldiers in Boston during the devastating pandemic that year described in graphic detail how they were dying from the flu: 'Two hours after admission they have the mahogany spots over the cheek bones and a few hours later you can begin to see the cyanosis extending from the ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the colored man from the white.

'It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes and it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate.' (Cyanosis is a bluish or purplish tinge to the skin.)

Note that reports described the Sichuan patients as having skin that turned very dark. Some H5N1 bird flu variants can produce bleeding under the skin. The index case in Thailand's human cases of bird flu this year was initially misdiagnosed as dengue hemorrhagic fever because of that bleeding.

What about the meningitis seen in Sichuan?

The H5N1, in fact, already has genes that can attack the brain. According to recent papers in Virology and The Journal Of Virology separately, this ability is seen in H5N1 samples isolated in 2001 and 2002 from poultry and birds in Hong Kong, and from a bird flu patient who died in the ex-colony in February 2003. Thus, it is very possible for any H5N1 circulating in mainland China to have this (neurotropic) characteristic.

Supposing it was bird flu in Sichuan, where could it have come from?

Probably from Qinghai province, just north-west of Sichuan. There, a major outbreak of bird flu occurred in April at a nature reserve, where 8,000 birds across five species - and also some mammals - died. Only in May would the Chinese authorities own up to it.

Now the weather has turned cold early at Qinghai, so birds there may have already started migrating out. Indeed, in June, China reported two outbreaks in birds at Tacheng city in Xinjiang province, which lies northwest of Qinghai. This week, there were wire reports about outbreaks in the Primorie and Chany Lake reserves in Russia, where more than 500 birds have died.

Here is the cause for concern.

When it first happened in Qinghai, an Internet daily called Boxun.com reported the outbreak, which the authorities denied. Human cases and fatalities, involving six tourists and 121 locals, were also detailed. Then, 17 of 19 Boxun reporters involved were jailed.

In May, China reported to the international authorities that there had indeed been an outbreak among birds in Qinghai but denied any human cases. Yet, it effectively hindered the WHO authorities from investigating the outbreak. Indeed, the 1.3 billion strong nation has never reported any human cases of bird flu that, since 2003, has killed at least 57 people in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and, now, Indonesia.

The Chinese have also never reported any outbreak in Sichuan - among poultry or people. But outbreaks in Shantou, Hunan and Yunnan were not reported either.

However, we know these did occur.

A paper published in July in the journal Nature detailed the genomics of H5N1 isolated in samples taken in 2005 from Qinghai and Guangdong as well as Hunan and Yunnan.

Dr Guan Yi, a University of Hong Kong scientist, told the media that, soon after the Nature paper was published, the mainland authorities accused him of stealing state secrets.

So China considers H5N1 a state secret - the Qinghai isolates have been shown to be very virulent - perhaps because people have already been infected?

If so, we have much to fear.

The city of Ziyang where patients are dying lies close to Chengdu, the provincial capital which is 250km south-east of Qinghai.

Should human cases emerge among Chengdu's 10 million people - it has an international airport - bird flu could spread even faster.

China may not be alone in under-reporting H5N1.

In India, where pigeons died en masse on one occasion in 2004, the blood of poultry workers collected in 2002 shows antibodies to H5N1. Officially, though, India has no H5N1. This month's first human cases in Indonesia, with two deaths, may be linked to trips made to India and Hong Kong.

Alas, this stonewalling can kill as the H5N1 acquires more lethal genes - like Ebola genes.

Although it has never been officially seen outside Africa, the intrepid Boxun.com reported last April an Ebola outbreak in Shenzen, next to Hong Kong, which the authorities denied. Now, Boxun sources tell them that the Sichuan outbreak is the rapidly evolving Ebola SZ-77 strain which can infect birds, so it may be tied to bird flu at Qinghai.

Incredible? Pittsburgh-based genomics expert Henry Niman told The Straits Times he has noticed a gene in H5N1 'that is an exact match for an Ebola gene. So it is possible that a dual infection in birds or people may be leading to a new H5N1 - or a new Ebola virus.'

Yes, a swap between bird flu and ebola viruses can happen. Dr Niman said: 'They just need to be in the same host cell.'

Let's hope this has not really happened yet. Otherwise, we could all be in the same boat, a rapidly leaking one at that.


http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6077

[al-Canine]

Bird flu spreading to more regions in Russia

Deadly virus may also be in Kazakhstan, health officials say

MOSCOW - Bird flu has been officially confirmed in two more Russian regions, and the disease may also be spreading in Northern Kazakhstan, officials said on Friday.

Health officials fear that a subtype of bird flu dangerous to humans may mutate into a lethal strain that could rival or exceed the Spanish flu pandemic that killed 20-40 million people worldwide at the end of World War One.

The presence of the highly pathogenic H5N1 subtype that can cause disease in humans has so far only been confirmed in one Russian region, Novosibirsk. But four other Siberian regions have been confirmed to have some sort of bird flu virus.

Russia’s Agriculture ministry said on Friday the disease had been confirmed in wildfowl in two locations in the Kurgan region and in one in the Omsk region. Bird flu has already been confirmed in the Altai and Tyumen regions.

The ministry statement said the virus found in Kurgan and Omsk did not appear to be highly pathogenic.

H5N1 bird flu has killed more than 50 people in Asia since late 2003, mostly in Vietnam. Bird flu has also led to the death of 140 million birds at a cost running to billions of dollars.

Russia has culled over 10,000 domestic birds in the last few days to stop the virus spreading, the emergencies ministry said.

The ministry said in a statement no new deaths had occurred among wildfowl and domestic poultry on Thursday in the Altai, Tyumen and Omsk regions.

However, 139 birds were found dead in Novosibirsk region.

Kazakhstan confirms virus' presence
Senior veterinary officials in neighboring Kazakhstan have confirmed bird flu has broken out in the Pavlodar region, bordering Novosibirsk.

Officials there said it was premature to say whether the Pavlodar outbreak was dangerous to humans.

But a disease with similar symptoms is already killing birds in neighboring regions.

Some 364 hens have died in a village in the eastern Kazakh region, while 37 wild ducks have been found dead at the Vinogradovka lake in the Akmola region, the Kazakh Emergencies Ministry said on its official Web site www.emer.kz

It said sanitary and veterinary controls were being heightened to contain the spread of the disease, while in Akmola 70 hens and 30 ducks living on private farms that may have been in contact with wild ducks had been destroyed.

© 2005 MSNBC.com

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8839692/

[al-Canine]

WASHINGTON, Aug. 6 - Government scientists say they have successfully tested in people a vaccine that they believe can protect against the strain of avian influenza that is spreading in birds through Asia and Russia.

Health officials have been racing to develop a vaccine because they worry that if that strain mutated and combined with a human influenza virus to create a new virus, it could spread rapidly through the world. (The vaccine cannot lead to such a situation because it is made from killed virus.)

Tens of millions of birds have died from infection with the virus and culling to prevent the spread of the virus. About 100 people have been infected, and about 50 have died from this strain of the avian influenza virus, called A(H5N1). So far there has been no sustained human-to-human transmission, but that is what health officials fear, because it could cause a pandemic. And that fear has driven the intense research to develop a vaccine.

The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, said that while the vaccine that has undergone preliminary tests could be used on an emergency basis if a pandemic developed, it would still be several months before that vaccine is tested further and, if licensed, offered to the public.

"It's good news," Dr. Fauci said. "We have a vaccine."

But he cautioned: "We don't have all the vaccine we need to meet the possible demand. The critical issue now is, 'Can we make enough vaccine, given the well-known inability of the vaccine industry to make enough vaccine.' "

An earlier human vaccine against A(H5N1) avian influenza virus was prepared after it first appeared in the world, in Hong Kong in 1997. That vaccine was never fully developed or used, and the strain has mutated since then.

In interviews over recent days, Dr. Fauci has said that tests so far have shown that the new vaccine produced a strong immune response among the small group of healthy adults under age 65 who volunteered to receive it, although the doses needed were higher than in the standard influenza vaccine offered each year. The vaccine, developed with genetic engineering techniques, is intended to protect against infection, not to treat those who are sick.

Further tests are expected to be conducted among two groups - people 65 and older, and children - over the next several months. Dr. Fauci expressed confidence that they would confirm the success of the first tests and answer remaining scientific questions.

Because the vaccine is made in chicken eggs, "a potential major stumbling block" to successful mass production is the number of eggs farmers can supply manufacturers, Dr. Fauci said.

If manufacturers can overcome such hurdles, the new vaccine could go far in averting a possible pandemic of human influenza, Dr. Fauci said.

Only a small number of human cases of A(H5N1) influenza have been found. Although a few cases may have been transmitted from person to person in Asia, the A(H5N1) strain has not garnered enough strength to spread widely among humans anywhere.

As of Friday night, according to the World Health Organization in Geneva, the avian strain has killed 57 of the 112 people it has been known to infect in four countries. They are Cambodia (4 cases), Indonesia (one case), Thailand (17 cases), and Vietnam (90 cases).

The additional tests are needed in part to determine the optimal dose of vaccine; how many shots people will need for protection; and whether adding another ingredient called an adjuvant to the vaccine could raise the potency of lower doses, stretching the number of people that could be protected. Even when these tests are completed, more time will be needed before the Food and Drug Administration can license the human vaccine and before policy makers determine the when and how it should be administered.

Government researchers and others developed the vaccine, which is produced by Sanofi-Pasteur, a French vaccine company that is now part of Aventis. The government could decide to release the product under emergency conditions if an A(H5N1) influenza pandemic struck before the testing process was completed.

Although cautioning that the vaccine has not been fully tested, Dr. Fauci said that the initial test findings have given the federal government enough confidence to start the process of adding millions more doses of the vaccine to the 2 million it has bought. The present supply is stored in bulk form, and "we cannot put it in vials until we find out what the right dose is," Dr. Fauci said.

The manufacturer needs to know the dose and regimen to determine how much more vaccine it can produce and make available to the United States and other customers.

Scientists had to test the human avian influenza vaccine on volunteers because the A(H5N1) strain differs in significant ways from the conventional strains that cause human influenza.

Also, the influenza shots that are offered each year are derived from the human strains that are circulating most widely at the time experts choose the components of the next vaccine. Human influenza viruses mutate enough each year to force changes in the standard vaccines. Such vaccines produce a broader and stronger immunity because recipients build up an immunity to influenza from repeated immunizations and exposure to the influenza virus.

In a sense, the standard annual influenza shots are booster doses. But the A(H5N1) vaccine is a primary immunization because, having had no exposure to that virus, people lack any immunity to the avian strain.

The United States is thought to be the only country that has produced a human vaccine against the A(H5N1) influenza strain. Australia, Canada, France and Japan are among countries where scientists are trying to develop human avian influenza vaccines, according to the World Health Organization.

Dr. Fauci's institute also contracted with Chiron, which is based in Emeryville, Calif. to make another A(H5N1) vaccine. But tests of the Chiron vaccine have not started because of delays related to prior contamination found in Chiron's plants.

Dr. Fauci said his institute has 8,000 doses of the Chiron human A(H5N1) vaccine and hopes to start testing it in volunteers in late fall. The tests will follow the same steps taken with the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, he said.

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/07/health/07vaccine.html?

[Atlas]

Mongolia Says 80 Migratory Birds Died From Avian Flu (Update1)

Aug. 8

(Bloomberg) -- Mongolia said 80 migratory birds were found dead in a lake, killed by an avian influenza virus, the World Organization for Animal Health reported.

Laboratory diagnosis yesterday of the wild ducks, geese and swans that were found on Aug. 2 has confirmed they died from `A'- type bird flu. The Paris-based animal health organization said in an e-mailed statement that it received the information today from Ravdan Sanjaatogtokh, director of the state veterinary services at Mongolia's ministry of food and agriculture in Ulan Bator.

Neighboring China, Russia and Kazakhstan have already reported outbreaks of an avian influenza virus that had infected 112 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia by Aug. 5, killing 57. Health experts fear the A/H5N1 virus may mutate into a strain that can be transmitted easily between humans.

The European Union said earlier today that it plans to ban imports of live birds, as well as feathers, from Russia and Kazakhstan because of confirmed outbreaks of avian influenza.

The ban, which will be in place by Aug. 12, will be reviewed in September, the Brussels-based European Commission, the 25- nation EU's executive arm, said in a statement.

Russia and Kazakhstan will join a list of nine Asian countries -- Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, China, Vietnam North Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia -- that are subject to similar bans. These nine nations aren't allowed to export birds, their meat or their products to the EU.

``No ban is necessary for eggs, poultry meat or meat products on this occasion as there is no trade between Russia and Kazakhstan and the EU in these products,'' the commission said.

Disease Spreading

The Russian Emergencies Ministry said 5,573 domestic and wild birds suspected of being infected have died in Novosibirsk, Omsk and Altay since July 21, when the A/H5N1 strain was identified in the three regions bordering Kazakhstan. In the past 24 hours, 217 birds have died, the ministry said on its Web site. The ministry didn't specify how many of the dead birds were culled to prevent the disease spreading.

``As of today, the epidemic situation in relation to diseases caused by this bird flu virus A/H5N1 is stable in relation to humans,'' the ministry said. ``There are no registered cases of humans being infected.''

Veterinary officials in Kazakhstan have confirmed an outbreak of bird flu in the country's Pavlodar region that borders Novosibirsk, Mosnews.com, an online Russian news provider, reported Aug. 5. A disease with similar symptoms was also killing birds in other parts of Kazakhstan, the report said.

The United Arab Emirates yesterday banned the import of all live birds from Russia, according to Gulf News.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Peter McGill in London at pmcgill1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 8, 2005 12:53 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=asia&sid=apjzA51ZJYTQ

[Klaus]

I just saw a television commercial on the History Channel from the CDC showing a guy in a space suit at the laundromat... it was offering helpful hints on how NOT TO SPREAD THE FLU.

1. Cover your nose and mouth when you cough or sneeze.
2. Wash your hands.
3. Stay home if you are sick.

I thought it was a pretty unusual commercial to see, given that flu season isn't normally in mid-August.

[Dora]

Please tell me this was an old commercial, shown for it's historical value.

[Atlas]

Could this be why?

---------------

Avian flu spreads westward in Russia

Aug 15, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Avian influenza has cropped up in chickens near Russia's Ural Mountains, possibly signaling a continued westward march of the deadly H5N1 virus, news services in Russia reported today.

The Chelyabinsk region along the southern end of the Urals is the sixth area in Russia to have been hit by avian flu outbreaks recently, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP) and Reuters. The Urals separate Siberia from European Russia.

A regional official said 60 chickens in the village of Oktyabrskoye died over the weekend, according to an online report by Mosnews.com. The report said testing had detected an H5N1 virus in the dead birds. However, the AFP and Reuters reports said it was not yet known if the virus was H5N1.

Other parts of southwestern Siberia that have reported recent outbreaks of avian flu include Novosibirsk, Altai, Omsk, Tyumen, and Kurgan, all to the east of Chelyabinsk, according to AFP. But the H5N1 strain has been identified only in the Novosibirsk, Altai, and Omsk outbreaks, the report said.

The Siberian outbreaks have killed 10,896 wild and domestic birds, according to an RIA Novosti news agency report quoted by AFP. Hundreds of thousands of birds have been culled since the first in the series of Russian outbreaks was reported in Novosibirsk on Jul 21, according to Mosnews.com. No human cases have been reported.

Russia's top government epidemiologist, Gennady Onischenko, warned that migrating birds could spread avian flu to Russia's major agricultural region and on to the Middle East and Mediterranean Sea this fall.

"An analysis of bird migration routes has shown that the contagious A (H5N1) virus may spread from western Siberia to the Caspian and Black Sea areas this fall," said Onischenko, as quoted by an RIA Novosti report today. "Some birds nesting in the affected regions (the Novosibirsk and Altai territory) migrate to the above-mentioned areas for winter or stop there on their way to Africa or Europe."

He added that bird migration routes run through Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine, and Mediterranean countries, raising a risk of outbreaks there as well, according to the story. Onischenko made the statements in a letter to regional directors of the Federal Service for the Oversight of Consumer Protection and Welfare.

Russia's Agriculture Ministry said all sick and infected birds in Chelyabinsk were being destroyed, and Russian media reported that roads leading to the affected village were cordoned off in an effort to contain the outbreak, according to Reuters.

A Russian agricultural official said the Chelyabinsk outbreak is near a lake that borders the Kurgan region and Kazakhstan, where other avian flu outbreaks have been reported recently, according to the Mosnews.com report.

Meanwhile, a Russian journalist named Maria Pashkova, who was hospitalized after visiting an area affected by avian flu, has been tested for the illness, according to an RIA Novosti report today. Results of the test are expected later this week.

Mosnews.com reported that Pashkova had already recovered from her illness. Four other Russians were hospitalized with suspected avian flu recently, but all four tested negative, the RIA Novosti story said.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/aug1505avian.html

[Dora]

Russia's Agriculture Ministry said all sick and infected birds in Chelyabinsk were being destroyed, and Russian media reported that roads leading to the affected village were cordoned off in an effort to contain the outbreak, according to Reuters.

This is odd - I wasn't aware that birds needed roads. Why would they close the roads unless it was to keep people from being exposed to another infected person, perhaps?

[Atlas]

This is odd - I wasn't aware that birds needed roads. Why would they close the roads unless it was to keep people from being exposed to another infected person, perhaps?

I think they mean so market birds aren't sold for consumption, like chickens, ducks, geese etc.

There have been many human deaths in asian countries though, coming up on 200 if I recall

[Dora]

I think they mean so market birds aren't sold for consumption, like chickens, ducks, geese etc.

There have been many human deaths in asian countries though, coming up on 200 if I recall
Well duh - I'm stupid! :mad_08:
Never post after taking your halcion......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Klaus]

This was a "new" commercial.
I didn't see any historical value, except that it was on the History Channel.

[Atlas]

Ruh roh

World News
August 16, 2005

Deadly strain in Russian bird flu outbreak
by Paul Platt, Times Online, and Agencies

An outbreak of avian flu in Siberia that is spreading towards Europe is of the deadly H5N1 strain, Russian health officials confirmed today.

Nearly 1,000 birds have been slaughtered in Chelyabinsk, a city in the Ural mountains where geese, chicken and ducks have caught the virus.

Although no human cases have been confirmed, vets have examined 65 poultry workers and residents, while the district hospital near Oktyabrskoye had prepared an isolated ward.

Another village in the Chelyabinsk region, Maloye Shumakovo, was quarantined. In three of the 1,400 households there 79 chickens and 21 ducks have died.

The H5N1 strain of avian flu has led to the death from infection and culling of tens of millions of birds across Asia since 2003. It has also infected 112 people in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia, causing 57 deaths.

The Russian outbreak was first discovered in mid-July in Novosibirsk. Health experts said a spread to Russia was predictable after outbreaks in neighbouring areas of western China.

It has spread about 600 miles westwards to Chelyabinsk, which lies close to the Ural mountains that act as the geographic divide between Europe from Asia. Neighbouring Kazakhstan and Mongolia have also reported outbreaks. Officials fear it could spread westwards to Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Nikolai Vlasov, deputy head of Russia’s Federal Vetinary and Phytosanitary Inspection Service, said: "This is a global process and all of Asia is involved in it and soon perhaps not only Asia."

Mr Vlasov said there was no way to block the migration routes when next month tens of millions of birds that nest in Siberia will continue their migration to warmer climates ahead of Russia’s harsh winter.

Specialists in Moscow said the diversity of Siberia’s bird species makes plotting the flight paths of the birds difficult.

The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds said birds will migrate to countries across the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Ducks, geese and wading birds such as snipe and curlew will migrate south and west while larks and plovers will fly into Afghanistan and some may cross the Persian Gulf and North Africa. The migration could take infected birds through Russia’s agricultural heartland in the south.

Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organisation, said: "This is a virus that can jump to humans in this kind of a situation, so there needs to be continued and close monitoring."

Bird flu comes in different strains, such as H5 and H7, which have nine different subtypes. The H5N1 subtype is highly pathogenic and can be passed from birds to humans, though there have been no cases of human to human transmission.

Scientists are concerned that the H5N1 strain could mutate so that it is passed easily between humans. If that were to happen, it would have the potential to trigger a lethal pandemic on the scale of the 1918-19 Spanish flu in which 20 million to 40 million people died.

Gennady Onishchenko, the country’s public health chief, warned that come autumn, migratory birds flying to warmer climes could spread the virus to southern Russia and from there to the Mediterranean and Middle East.

And in spring next year, bird flu could spread "to the entire European part of Russia," he said. He added that the situation required "additional measures and greater coordination; between federal and regional agencies."

He also asked the Interior Ministry to provide personnel to help quarantine affected areas and instructed the Health Ministry’s regional offices to compile lists of people and their families who have had contact with infected birds.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1737871,00.html

[knightroar]

TomGram: The monster at our door
Mike Davis on the coming avian flu pandemic


"Follow that chicken" is not one of the more inspiring lines in the history of detective fiction, nor one of the more frightening in the genre of horror. It's perhaps on the level of that classic grade-Z sci-fi film, Night of the Lepus, in which the giant, rampaging, mutant rabbits were just... well, big bunnies. And yet, don't be fooled, the chicken, probably first domesticated in Southeast Asia some 8,000 years ago, might prove the death of many of us, and for its possible depredations, we are painfully unprepared.

In 1918, a flu epidemic emerged from the trenches of World War I's Western Front -- essentially the war‘s equivalent of the slums -- and swept across the world (twice) ridding it of somewhere between 25 million and 100 million human beings (the equivalent in today's population terms of possibly upwards of a billion people). There have been flu pandemics since, but none faintly on such a scale. For nearly a decade, epidemiologists, public health officials, and veterinary researchers -- by now, in fact just about the whole global medical/scientific community -- have been warning that such a new pandemic is a frightening possibility, if not a near certainty. At the same time, some of them have been performing prodigious genetic detective work as a mutant flu virus, H5N1, has lodged in the systems of wild fowl in southern China, moved into massed domestic fowl populations nearby, and begun to spread to human beings; all the while still genetically evolving in birds (domestic and wild), swine, and even perhaps people, "looking for" the means to leap not just from bird to bird, or bird to swine, or even from bird to human, but from human to human at a staggering rate.

Nothing could more quickly remind us that we humans are part of nature than a flu pandemic; yet three quite unnatural changes in our world have drastically increased the danger of such a pandemic. A livestock revolution has gathered domestic birds together -- think Tyson chickens -- onto giant corporate farms in prodigious numbers, clustering them into what are essentially giant bird slums, where any new disease is guaranteed to spread more easily. Meanwhile, throughout the third world, impoverished human beings have been gathering in far greater urban concentrations than anything imaginable a century ago, and any of these are potential hatcheries for a pandemic. Finally, globalization and global air travel have made the spread of a pandemic, once started, almost instantaneous. In the meantime, H5N1, spreads by an older set of air paths -- avian migration routes -- having just made it to Russia. And we wait.

What makes this an especially dangerous situation in the U.S. is that the Bush administration has largely chosen to redirect its public-health budget to preparations for "biowar" possibilities -- smallpox, Ebola Fever, and the like -- which may never endanger us, while scanting the kind of biowar (think Hitchcock's The Birds, not Osama bin Laden) that is actually likely to do so. Between the administration's priorities and Big Pharma's urge to go for the profits -- flu shots are unprofitable products -- America's public health structure is in increasingly woeful shape and certainly, despite endless warnings about what might come, in no shape at all to deal with a nationwide flu pandemic.

All of this, by the way, I know only because Mike Davis has just published a must-read, brief new book, Monster at our Door, The Global Threat of Avian Flu, a scientific detective story, a tale of potential horror, and a sociological thriller about our 21st century world. This is a situation with which we should all be acquainted. Even the President evidently belated agrees. Along with Alexander II: The Last Great Tsar (about which I won't even speculate) and a history of salt, he's taken John M. Barry's account of the 1918 flu pandemic, The Great Influenza off to Crawford to read. Maybe I should send a copy of the Davis book down to Crawford as well and Cindy Sheehan could present it to him at their meeting.

Recently, avian flu, which for some years had flown below the headlines and nested on the inside pages of our newspapers, has hit the front-page. (On this issue, as Davis points out, the New York Times has been especially good.) The latest headlines -- about a potential vaccine for this possible pandemic -- undoubtedly caused a collective sigh of relief. Unfortunately, relief is not actually in sight as Mike Davis explains below, offering his latest update on the monster at our door. Tom

Has Time Run Out?
The Coming Avian Flu Pandemic
By Mike Davis

Deadly avian flu is on the wing.

The first bar-headed geese have already arrived at their wintering grounds near the Cauvery River in the southern Indian state of Karnataka. Over the next ten weeks, 100,000 more geese, gulls, and cormorants will leave their summer home at Lake Qinghai in western China, headed for India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and, eventually, Australia.

An unknown number of these beautiful migrating birds will carry H5N1, the avian flu subtype that has killed 61 people in Southeast Asia and which the World Health Organization (WHO) fears is on the verge of mutating into a pandemic form like that which killed 50 to 100 million people in the fall of 1918. As the birds arrive in the wetlands of South Asia, they will excrete the virus into the water where it risks spreading to migrating waterfowl from Europe as well as to domestic poultry. In the worst-case scenario, this will bring avian flu to the doorstep of the dense slums of Dhaka, Kolkata, Karachi, and Mumbai.

The avian flu outbreak at Lake Qinghai was first identified by Chinese wildlife officials at the end of April. Initially it was confined to a small islet in the huge salt lake, where geese suddenly began to act spasmodically, then to collapse and die. By mid-May it had spread through the lake's entire avian population, killing thousands of birds. An ornithologist called it "the biggest and most extensively mortal avian influenza event ever seen in wild birds."

Chinese scientists, meanwhile, were horrified by the virulence of the new strain: when mice were infected they died even quicker than when injected with "genotype Z," the fearsome H5N1 variant currently killing farmers and their children in Vietnam.

Yi Guan, leader of a famed team of avian flu researchers who have been fighting the pandemic menace since 1997, complained to the British Guardian in July about the lackadaisical response of Chinese authorities to the unprecedented biological conflagration at Lake Qinghai.

"They have taken almost no action to control this outbreak. They should have asked for international support. These birds will go to India and Bangladesh and there they will meet birds that come from Europe." Yi Guan called for the creation of an international task force to monitor the wild bird pandemic, as well as the relaxation of rules that prevent the free movement of foreign scientists to outbreak zones in China.

In a paper published in the British science magazine Nature, Yi Guan and his associates also revealed that the Lake Qinghai strain was related to officially unreported recent outbreaks of H5N1 among birds in southern China. This would not be the first time that Chinese authorities have been charged with covering up an outbreak. They also lied about the nature and extent of the 2003 SARS epidemic, which originated in Guangdong but quickly spread to 25 other countries. As in the case of SARS' whistleblowers, the Chinese bureaucracy is now trying to gag avian-flu scientists, shutting down one of Yi Guan's laboratories at Shantou University and arming the conservative Agriculture Ministry with new powers over research.

Meanwhile, as anxious Indian scientists monitor bird sanctuaries throughout the subcontinent, H5N1 has spread to the outskirts of Lhasa, the capital of Tibet; to western Mongolia; and, most disturbingly, to chickens and wildfowl near the Siberian capital of Novosibirsk.

Despite frantic efforts to cull local poultry, Russian Health Ministry experts have expressed pessimism that the outbreak can be contained on the Asian side of the Urals. Siberian wildfowl migrate every fall to the Black Sea and southern Europe; another flyway leads from Siberia to Alaska and Canada.

In anticipation of this next, and perhaps inevitable, stage in the world journey of avian flu, poultry populations are being tracked in Moscow; Alaskan scientists are studying birds migrating across the Bering Straits, and even the Swiss are looking over their shoulders at the tufted ducks and pochards arriving from Eurasia.

H5N1's human epicenter is also expanding: in mid-July Indonesian authorities confirmed that a father and his two young daughters had died of avian flu in a wealthy suburb of Jakarta. Disturbingly, the family had no known contact with poultry and near panic ensued in the neighborhood as the press speculated about possible human-to-human transmission.

At the same time, five new outbreaks among poultry were reported in Thailand, dealing a terrible blow to the nation's extensive and highly-publicized campaign to eradicate the disease. Meanwhile, as Vietnamese officials renewed their appeal for more international aid, H5N1 was claiming new victims in the country that remains of chief concern to the WHO.

The bottom line is that avian influenza is endemic and probably ineradicable among poultry in Southeast Asia, and now seems to be spreading at pandemic velocity amongst migratory birds, with the potential to reach most of the earth in the next year.

Each new outpost of H5N1 -- whether among ducks in Siberia, pigs in Indonesia, or humans in Vietnam -- is a further opportunity for the rapidly evolving virus to acquire the gene or even simply the protein mutation that it needs to become a mass-killer of humans.

This exponential multiplication of hot spots and silent reservoirs (as among infected but asymptomatic ducks) is why the chorus of warnings from scientists, public-health officials, and finally, governments has become so plangently insistent in recent months.

The new U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told the Associated Press in early August that an influenza pandemic was now an "absolute certainty," echoing repeated warnings from the World Health Organization that it was "inevitable." Likewise Science magazine observed that expert opinion held the odds of a global outbreak as "100 percent."

In the same grim spirit, the British press revealed that officials were scouring the country for suitable sites for mass mortuaries, based on official fears that avian flu could kill as many as 700,000 Britons. The Blair government is already conducting emergency simulations of a pandemic outbreak ("Operation Arctic Sea") and is reported to have readied "Cobra" -- a cabinet-level working group that coordinates government responses to national emergencies like the recent London bombings from a secret war room in Whitehall -- to deal with an avian flu crisis.

Little of this Churchillian resolve is apparent in Washington. Although a sense of extreme urgency is evident in the National Institutes of Health where the czar for pandemic planning, Dr. Anthony Fauci, warns of "the mother of all emerging infections," the White House has seemed even less perturbed by migrating plagues than by wanton carnage in Iraq.

As the President was packing for his long holiday in Texas, the Trust for America's Health was warning that domestic preparations for a pandemic lagged far behind the energetic measures being undertaken in Britain and Canada, and that the administration had failed "to establish a cohesive, rapid and transparent U.S. pandemic strategy."

That increasingly independent operator, Senate majority leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), had already criticized the administration in an extraordinary (and under-reported) speech at Harvard at the beginning of June. Referring to Washington's failure to stockpile an adequate supply of the crucial anti-viral oseltamivir (or Tamiflu), Frist sarcastically noted that "to acquire more anti-viral agent, we would need to get in line behind Britain and France and Canada and others who have tens of millions of doses on order."

The New York Times on its July 17 editorial page, a May 26 special issue of Nature and the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs have also hammered away at Washington's failure to stockpile enough scarce antivirals -- current inventories cover less than 1% of the U.S. population -- and to modernize vaccine production. Even a few prominent Senate Democrats have stirred into action, although none as boldly as Frist at Harvard.

The Department of Health and Human Services, in response, has sought to calm critics with recent hikes in spending on vaccine research and antiviral stockpiles. There has also been much official and media ballyhoo about the announcement of a series of successful tests in early August of an experimental avian flu vaccine.

But there is no guarantee that the vaccine prototype, based on a "reverse-genetically-engineered" strain of H5N1, will actually be effective against a pandemic strain with different genes and proteins. Moreover, trial success was based upon the administration of two doses plus a booster. Since the government has only ordered 2 million doses of the vaccine from pharmaceutical giant Sanofi Pasteur, this may provide protection for only 450,000 people. As one researcher told Science magazine, "it's a vaccine for the happy few."

At the least, gearing up for larger-scale production will take many months and production itself is limited by the antiquated technology of vaccine manufacture which depends upon a vulnerable and limited supply of fertile chicken eggs. It would also likely mean the curtailment of the production of the annual winter flu vaccine that is so often a lifesaver for many senior citizens.

Likewise, Washington's new orders for antivirals, as Senator Frist predicted, will have to wait in line behind the other customers of Roche's single Tamiflu plant in Switzerland.

In short, it is good news that the vaccine tests were successful, but that does little to change the judgment of the New York Times that "there is not enough vaccine or antiviral medicine available to protect more than a handful of people, and no industrial capacity to produce a lot more of these medicines quickly."

Moreover, the majority of the world, including all the poor countries of South Asia and Africa where, history tells us, pandemics are likely to hit especially hard, will have no access to expensive antivirals or scarce vaccines. It is even doubtful whether the WHO will have the minimal pharmaceuticals to respond to an initial outbreak.

Recent theoretical studies by mathematical epidemiologists in Atlanta and London have raised hopes that a pandemic might be stopped in its tracks if 1 to 3 million doses of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) were available to douse an outbreak in a failsafe radius around the early cases.

After years of effort, however, the WHO has only managed to inventory about 123,000 courses of Tamiflu. Although Roche has promised to donate more, the desperate rush of rich countries to accumulate Tamiflu will be certain to undercut the World Health Organization's stockpile.

As for a universally available "world vaccine," it remains a pipe-dream without new, billion-dollar commitments from the rich countries, above all the United States, and even then, we are probably too late.

"People just don't get it," Dr. Michael Osterholm, the outspoken director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota recently complained. "If we were to begin a Manhattan Project-type response tonight to expand vaccine and drug production, we wouldn't have a measurable impact on the availability of these critical products to sufficiently address a worldwide pandemic for at least several years."

"Several years" is a luxury that Washington has already squandered. The best guess, as the geese head west and south, is that we have almost run out of time. As Shigeru Omi, the Western Pacific director of WHO, told a UN meeting in Kuala Lumpur in early July: "We're at the tipping point."

Mike Davis is the author of the just published Monster at our Door, The Global Threat of Avian Flu (The New Press) and the forthcoming Planet of Slums (Verso).


Copyright 2005 Mike Davis

http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=19496

[NYer]

From the W.H.O. ...

Implications for human health

The poultry outbreaks in Russia and Kazakhstan are caused by a virus that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability, in outbreaks in Hong Kong in 1997, in Hong Kong in 2003, and in south-east Asia since early 2004, to cross the species barrier to infect humans, causing severe disease with high fatality. A similar risk of human cases exists in areas newly affected with H5N1 disease in poultry.

Experience in south-east Asia indicates that human cases of infection are rare, and that the virus does not transmit easily from poultry to humans. To date, the majority of human cases have occurred in rural areas. Most, but not all, human cases have been linked to direct exposure to dead or diseased poultry, notably during slaughtering, defeathering, and food preparation. No cases have been confirmed in poultry workers or cullers. No cases have been linked to the consumption of properly cooked poultry meat or eggs.

Factors relating to poultry densities and farming systems seen in different countries may also influence the risk that human cases will occur. During a 2003 outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, caused by the H7N7 strain, in the Netherlands, more than 80 cases of conjunctivitis were detected in poultry workers, cullers, and their close contacts, and one veterinarian died. That event, which was contained following the destruction of around 30 million poultry, underscores the need for newly affected countries to follow FAO/OIE/WHO recommended precautions when undertaking control measures in affected farms.

Pandemic risk assessment

The possible spread of H5N1 avian influenza to poultry in additional countries cannot be ruled out. WHO recommends heightened surveillance for outbreaks in poultry and die-offs in migratory birds, and rapid introduction of containment measures, as recommended by FAO and OIE. Heightened vigilance for cases of respiratory disease in persons with a history of exposure to infected poultry is also recommended in countries with known poultry outbreaks. The provision of clinical specimens and viruses, from humans and animals, to WHO and OIE/FAO reference laboratories allows studies that contribute to the assessment of pandemic risk and helps ensure that work towards vaccine development stays on course.

The expanding geographical presence of the virus is of concern as it creates further opportunities for human exposure. Each additional human case increases opportunities for the virus to improve its transmissibility, through either adaptive mutation or reassortment. The emergence of an H5N1 strain that is readily transmitted among humans would mark the start of a pandemic.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_08_18/en/index.html

Let's hope this is more Swine Flu than Spanish Flu ...

[al-Canine]

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The European Union will this week consider coordinated action across the bloc to prevent an outbreak of avian influenza after the Dutch and German governments announced bans on keeping poultry outdoors.

``We remain open to reviewing the measures in force if we consider that's required,'' said Philip Tod, a spokesman for the European Commission in Brussels. ``We have to stay vigilant.''

Veterinary representatives will discuss the issue on Aug. 25 after the Dutch government this week took action to prevent contact between farmed poultry and their wild relatives. The German agriculture ministry plans a similar ban on keeping birds outside by Sept. 15.

Bird flu has infected 108 people in Asia and killed half of them since 2004, three health agencies including the World Health Organization said last month. More than 140 million chickens have been slaughtered in the region because of concern that H5N1, a deadly strain of the avian flu virus, may mutate into a form easily transmissible between humans.

The EU on Aug. 8 added Russia and Kazakhstan to a list of nine nations whose poultry exports are banned following outbreaks of the disease. The bloc may decide to step up monitoring of wild birds to ensure that the virus isn't spread along migratory routes, Tod said.

Vaccine Supplies

Drug companies including GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Sanofi- Aventis SA may struggle to supply vaccines to fulfill possible demand to protect against the threat of the disease, according to Nomura Securities analyst Michael Leacock.

``Vaccine companies will be at the forefront of any public health measures, but due to considerable production constraints'' the companies are unlikely to benefit in the short term, Leacock said in an e-mailed note.

Roche Holding AG, Switzerland's second-largest drugmaker, said last week it expects to increase production of Tamiflu, an influenza treatment that's been show to fight bird flu, by as much as 10 times from 2003 to 2006 to meet demand.

French Agriculture Minister Dominique Bussereau yesterday wrote to bird breeders to remind them to remain vigilant about the threat, according to a statement from his department.

Britain won't advise its poultry keepers to follow the Dutch and German example because ``we do not think that response is proportionate to the risk,'' the U.K.'s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said in a statement. ``Obviously we will maintain high levels of vigilance and advise poultry keepers to keep high levels of biosecurity, as always.''

The Italian and Belgian authorities said in separate statements in the past week that they are monitoring the situation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=abp6nDVbyhA0&refer=europe#

[NYer]

A cautionary tale here ... I remember the great Swine Flu fiasco ...
http://www.mercola.com/2004/jan/17/government_flu.htm

[al-Canine]

A cautionary tale here ... I remember the great Swine Flu fiasco ...
http://www.mercola.com/2004/jan/17/government_flu.htm

Good point... here's more on that...

Preparing for a Pandemic

When the Senate majority leader gives a major speech calling for the equivalent of a "Manhattan Project for the 21st century," our ears should perk up. A high-ranking government official proposing significant initiatives can often be good news for investors.

Senator Frist is calling for an all-out attack on infectious diseases, bioterrorism, and in particular the avian flu. This is not the usual scaremongering so beloved by attention-seeking politicians. The scientific and health care communities are convinced a potentially deadly flu pandemic is headed our way. There are various virulent strains of disease, principally the avian flu (H5N1), which are mutating, becoming more resistant to medication, and apparently approaching the point where they will travel from person to person more readily.

Experts in the field recall the Spanish flu of 1918, which claimed 20 million lives worldwide. More recent outbreaks have been milder, but also costly. According to the National Institutes of Health, "The last pandemic swept the globe in 1968; most public health experts believe the world is overdue for another one."

This is not a minor concern. Foreign Affairs devoted much of its most recent issue to the possibility of a pandemic. The articles chill the blood. The subject is complex, but suffice it to say that the avian flu, if it develops human transference, could turn out to be the most deadly attack of its kind ever seen. Many scientists suggest that the death toll from an H5N1 pandemic could reach hundreds of millions worldwide.

There are two major approaches to creating readiness, both of which could benefit the pharmaceutical industry. First, governments around the world need to acquire, and are ordering, stockpiles of anti-flu medication, a subject I will address in an upcoming column.

Second, most governments are trying to line up vaccine supplies that could cover a larger-than-normal portion of the population. Since the current flu threat contains strains that humans have never encountered, people of all ages will be vulnerable to the disease, should it develop. In 1918, young people were worst hit by the Spanish flu. Older people had developed some resistance to the disease from surviving a similar earlier strain.

America now lags in its stockpiling of vaccines. The problems that have beset vaccine producers in the past two decades are well known. The American government suffered a major embarrassment in the 1970s when it ordered a massive amount of vaccine to prevent swine flu and immunized producers against liability concerns. The disease never developed, and the government was sued for millions by people who suffered serious side effects from the inoculations.

The number of companies in the vaccine business has shrunk to very few, but there are a couple that specialize in the area and could benefit from stepped-up spending. (For more conservative investors, there are also large companies such as GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Aventis.)

The head of Outer Islands Capital and a well-regarded appraiser of health care companies, David MacCallum, considers ID Biomedical of interest. IDBE is a Canadian company that is producing a new vaccine called Fluviral. The company currently has 75% of the Canadian market, and has arranged to market the product in America once it has FDA approval.

The company is small, and has only recently moved from an R&D operation to shipping any significant product. However, management projects the possibility of selling as much as $2.3 billion in vaccines in the next eight flu seasons. If a crisis required more rapid vaccine production, IDBE could be in the forefront.

This potential has not gone unnoticed. Numerous analysts follow the stock today, but few from the large investment banks do. Researchers are mostly positive on the shares, despite projections of losses next year. The five-year growth rate is pegged by analysts at upwards of 30%, and that's without a flu crisis. The company has a 10-year mandate from the Canadian government to provide flu vaccines in case of a pandemic.

The world's fifth-largest vaccine producer is Chiron, based in California. This company is not as "pure" a play as IDBE, since only about 30% of revenue comes from vaccines. The company is also in the doghouse because of quality problems at a major manufacturing facility in Britain last year and other management issues. The British plant was shut down for three months. As a result, the company failed to deliver expected vaccine shipments to America.

The stock, which traded in the mid-50s in late 2003, traded as low as $29 earlier this year, and gets mixed reviews from analysts. One supporter of the company is Eric Schmidt at S.G. Cowen Securities. Mr. Schmidt cites the positive momentum in the company's operations excluding the newly acquired British company PowderJect, the source of the vaccine issues. Mr. Schmidt acknowledges management turnover at Chiron has been higher than the norm, but he is optimistic that the underlying strength of the company will move the stock higher, targeting a price in the high 40s.

Analysts are all over the lot on Chiron, with estimates for next year ranging from $1.58 to $2.74. That's the kind of uncertainty that could spell opportunity.

The prospects of these companies should improve with increased effort to prepare for a possible flu pandemic. We don't even want to consider their outlook should it arrive.

http://www.nysun.com/article/18911

[NYer]

Britain's elite get pills to survive bird flu
Sarah-Kate Templeton and Jonathan Calvert

MEMBERS of Britain’s elite have been selected as priority cases to receive scarce pills and vaccinations at the taxpayers’ expense if the country is hit by a deadly bird flu outbreak.

Workers at the BBC and prominent politicians — such as cabinet ministers — would be offered protection from the virus.

Ken Livingstone, the London mayor, has already spent £1m to make sure his personal office and employees have their own emergency supplies of 100,000 antiviral tablets.

If there is an avian flu pandemic in the coming months there would be enough drugs to protect less than 2% of the British population for a week.

The Department of Health has drawn up a priority list of those who would be first to receive lifesaving drugs. Top of the list are health workers followed by those in key public sector jobs.

Although senior government ministers would be among the high-priority cases, the department said this weekend that it had not decided whether to include opposition politicians.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1753892,00.html

Nice to have known you, Mr. Galloway ...

[Atlas]

Britain's elite get pills to survive bird flu
Sarah-Kate Templeton and Jonathan Calvert

MEMBERS of Britain’s elite have been selected as priority cases to receive scarce pills and vaccinations at the taxpayers’ expense if the country is hit by a deadly bird flu outbreak.

Workers at the BBC and prominent politicians — such as cabinet ministers — would be offered protection from the virus.

Ken Livingstone, the London mayor, has already spent £1m to make sure his personal office and employees have their own emergency supplies of 100,000 antiviral tablets.

If there is an avian flu pandemic in the coming months there would be enough drugs to protect less than 2% of the British population for a week.

The Department of Health has drawn up a priority list of those who would be first to receive lifesaving drugs. Top of the list are health workers followed by those in key public sector jobs.

Although senior government ministers would be among the high-priority cases, the department said this weekend that it had not decided whether to include opposition politicians.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1753892,00.html

Nice to have known you, Mr. Galloway ...

Nice, this must be going over like a turd in a punchbowl in jolly ole england

[al-Canine]

Bird flu pandemic could be impossible to contain after a few weeks - WHO

NOUMEA (AFX) - Any global bird flu pandemic could be impossible to contain a few weeks after the initial outbreak, a World Health Organization (WHO) expert warned here.

'There's a very short time period -- two to four weeks between the onset of the first case -- in which containment is possible,' said Hitoshi Oshitani, the WHO's expert on communicable diseases.

'After four or five weeks ... it would have spread to too many places and then it will be probably impossible to contain,' Oshitani warned, speaking to the WHO's Regional Committee for the Western Pacific.

The latest outbreak of bird flu was detected in South Korea in Dec 2003. It has now hit 11 countries, with the H5N1 strain of the virus killing a total of 63 people in Southeast Asia.

The WHO fears a possible pandemic if the virus mutates and becomes more easily communicable to humans.

Oshitani said that in some affected countries like Cambodia and Vietnam, detection of bird flu cases could take weeks, if not months, making containment all the more difficult.

'So we have to implement some control measures in a very short time period,' he said, adding, though, that a human vaccine could take months to develop, by which time the disease could have spread uncontrollably.

'A prototype vaccine is available but the problem is the vaccine strain is based on the virus isolated in Vietnam last year. The virus continues to change and we don't know which virus will cause pandemic,' he said.

Oshitani, who helped lead the fight against the SARS virus which killed hundreds and ravaged Asian economies, said bird flu could be a much more difficult problem.

'The virus is already endemic in many places in Asia. We have now outbreaks in Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan. It is still spreading. It is historically unprecedented,' he said.

'If a pandemic occurs the impact will be much much higher than that of SARS (in terms of the) number of cases, number of deaths and also the economic impact.'

WHO director general Lee Jong-Wook had told the meeting yesterday that a pandemic is likely.

'It's obvious that a pandemic will occur, all the conditions are in place. The problem now is time,' Lee said.

The WHO said countries should prepare for a pandemic by stockpiling antiviral drugs and positioning them in high-risk areas; intensifying efforts in vaccine development; and preparing for massive social and economic disruptions.

It has developed an Asian Pacific Avian Influenza Action Plan that will need about 160 mln usd to implement. A donors' meeting will be held later this year to seek funds.

http://www.forbes.com/finance/feeds/afx/2005/09/20/afx2233488.html

[Dajjal]

Nice, this must be going over like a turd in a punchbowl in jolly ole england

The elite may survive the flue, but they will not survive the decimation of the working class. Because who will do the work?

[Bows]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09200504/H5N1_Casual_Phase_5.html

It appears to have begun human to human transmission. H5N1 at phase 5.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/living/12683933.htm

"In 1918, a strain of influenza different from any that had been seen before emerged among soldiers stationed in Haskell, Kan. By the end of 1919, more than one out of four people on the planet had fallen ill.

Hospitals overflowed. Cities shut down. Tens of millions died, including many young, healthy adults.

Scientists are afraid it's about to happen again.

We would have little or no vaccine and only tiny stockpiles of medicine. We would lack enough ventilators to save those whose lungs were wrecked by disease.

''We [would] be caring for people in gymnasiums and community centers, just like in 1918,'' said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy."

[Dora]

I got a prescription for Tamiflu filled for each member of my family today. Call your dr & tell them why you want it (for your emergency preparedness kit). Ours were surprisingly ammenable to the idea & gave me no arguement. It may save your life, or the life of someone you love. Don't waste time - if things reach the point where you need it, you won't be able to find it. And check the exp. date & make sure it's good for at least a year. So far it is the only available drug that eases the severity - and not in every case. But it's better than nothing at all.

[Bows]

I got a prescription for Tamiflu filled for each member of my family today. Call your dr & tell them why you want it (for your emergency preparedness kit). Ours were surprisingly ammenable to the idea & gave me no arguement. It may save your life, or the life of someone you love. Don't waste time - if things reach the point where you need it, you won't be able to find it. And check the exp. date & make sure it's good for at least a year. So far it is the only available drug that eases the severity - and not in every case. But it's better than nothing at all.

Yes, get it now because countries are now also stockpiling it. You can get it online:
http://atcostpharma.com/iteminfo.asp?item=Tamiflu

However:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05170503/H5N1_Tamiflu_Resistance.html

[al-Canine]

Yes, get it now because countries are now also stockpiling it. You can get it online:
http://atcostpharma.com/iteminfo.asp?item=Tamiflu

However:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05170503/H5N1_Tamiflu_Resistance.html

Folks should exercise caution in getting their Tamiflu online from anything but a highly respectable and well-known source. Counterfeit drugs abound on the internets. My hubby deals with this every single day in his line of work, and the problem is very real.

[NYer]

Folks should exercise caution in getting their Tamiflu online from anything but a highly respectable and well-known source. Counterfeit drugs abound on the internets. My hubby deals with this every single day in his line of work, and the problem is very real.

I second that emotion...

[Dora]

I second that emotion...
Call you dr - you might be surprised at how amenable he'll be to writing a prescription. I was.
But it's expensive. With our ins. co-pay, it was still 50$ per prescription.

[Bows]

Folks should exercise caution in getting their Tamiflu online from anything but a highly respectable and well-known source. Counterfeit drugs abound on the internets. My hubby deals with this every single day in his line of work, and the problem is very real.

So true. If you're going to buy it, prescription is a better option.

[NYer]

Indonesian bird flu crisis could be start of global outbreak: expert


PETER CAVE: We're getting news in that an Indonesian girl has died in Jakarta in a hospital on Wednesday after suffering from bird flu symptoms. Four Indonesians are already confirmed dead, that makes her the fifth in Indonesia.

Health experts say they're worried a bird flu crisis in Indonesia marks the beginning of a global outbreak.

The World Health Organisation fears that an influenza pandemic could break out if the virus mutates and spreads more easily from birds to humans, or more worrying still, from human to human.

The Indonesian Government has announced new measures to stop bird flu from spreading, including the forced hospitalisation of people suspected of having the disease.

Australian health experts say an outbreak on Australia's doorstep can't be taken lightly, but they say Australia is less at risk than a poorer country like Indonesia.

Brendan Trembath reports.

(sound of chickens clucking)

BRENDAN TREMBATH: Indonesia plans to cull hundreds of thousands of chickens to try to stop the spread of the influenza virus commonly known as bird flu.

A particular strain can be deadly to humans.

More than 40 state-owned hospitals have been told to be prepared to treat bird flu patients.

Sardikin Giri Putro is a vice director of one of the hospitals.

SARDIKIN GIRI PUTRO: Our team conducted physical check for people who are in contact with birds or animals in the zoo, and two of them were found to be…. got symptoms.

BRENDAN TREMBATH: Bird flu has killed about 50 people around Asia since last year.

There've been outbreaks in South East Asian nations such as Thailand, and Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan.

The bird flu outbreak in Indonesia, on Australia's doorstep, concerns World Health Organisation officials such as Alan Hampson.

He's a Deputy Director of the organisation's research centre in Melbourne.

ALAN HAMPSON: There is an ongoing international concern that pandemic influenza, probably based on history is almost inevitable, that it will occur at some stage, and the outbreaks we're seeing at the moment may in fact herald the early stages of that.

BRENDAN TREMBATH: When an influenza pandemic swept the globe in 1918 killing as many as 40 million people, there was no World Health Organisation. But by the '40s it had been established to fight, among other things, deadly strains of influenza.

The organisation aims to identify new strains quickly so vaccines can be produced.

Alan Hampson from the World Health Organisation says drugs are being stockpiled in case of a global outbreak.

ALAN HAMPSON: We're assuming that a pandemic may start somewhere in South East Asia or southern China or somewhere like that.

And there has been some excellent modelling work done to show that if you are quick enough at detecting what's happening, the early stages of spread of the virus in humans, and are able to get the antivirals to that point, and are able to limit the movement of people within the area where it starts, you may be able to oblate the pandemic at that point.

BRENDAN TREMBATH: That stockpile you talk about, how big is that and where is it?

ALAN HAMPSON: It will be held, I think, by the manufacturing company who has donated it to WHO, with a guarantee to ship it to where WHO wants it to be.

The stockpile in the first instance, immediately, is a million courses of treatment, with another two million courses to follow shortly.

BRENDAN TREMBATH: He doesn't want to alarm anyone, but says if there is an influenza pandemic, Australia would be relatively well off.

He says traditionally, epidemics and pandemics have taken root in less developed regions.

ALAN HAMPSON: It's pretty unlikely that we would see the beginnings of a pandemic in Australia. I think the conditions are far more conducive in South East Asia and particularly in view of the outbreaks that we're seeing.

BRENDAN TREMBATH: One way Australia could succumb to bird flu is through infected wild birds.

Researchers say migrating birds have spread the virus to some parts of Central Asia.

Australia may not have as much to worry about.

World Health Organisation official Alan Hampson.

ALAN HAMPSON: We're on a fly-way that does touch those areas that have been affected. I guess the difference is that the birds that are probably carrying this virus up into Kazakhstan and those surrounding areas are probably migratory geese.

Now, the types of birds that we see coming down into Australia are small wading birds.

Now that's not to say they can't carry the virus, but I think the chances are less, that they will be carrying this particular virus, and the chances are less that they will be in contact with domestic poultry.

PETER CAVE: Alan Hampson from the World Health Organisation.

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2005/s1465413.htm

[NYer]

Firms Advised To Prepare For Possible Avian Flu Pandemic


By Phelim Kyne
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--As the death toll rises from an outbreak in Indonesia of avian flu, health officials and business executives are warning firms across Asia to start preparing for a possible pandemic of the disease.


The World Health Organization warns that H5N1 is rapidly spreading across Asia and beyond, requiring firms to take urgent proactive measures to protect their operations from what could be serious disruption to business around the region.

Reflecting growing risks that the disease will start to spread more quickly, investors have turned shy on Indonesia's sovereign credit while stock prices are weaker.

The Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite index fell 1% Tuesday and 1.1% Wednesday on jitters over the bird flu outbreak's potential economic impact. The cost of credit protection on Indonesia has risen by about 15 basis points in the past week to a between 270 and 290 basis points.

An H5N1 pandemic would disrupt supply chains, cause mass staff level reductions and drive corporate medical costs sharply higher, said Andrew Clements, Senior Infectious Disease Adviser for the United States Agency for International Development.

"If a pandemic starts and trade routes start getting shut down and airline travel starts getting shut off, that's probably going to affect your business," Clements said.

"We don't know what the pandemic will look like...(but) it's possible you could have 25% to 30% of your people sick at any given time and might have another 25% of people who don't show up at work cause they're afraid of getting infected," he said.

Clements is part of a five-person team that includes epidemiologists and disaster preparation and agricultural experts that the U.S. government has dispatched on an ongoing one-week assessment mission of Indonesia's H5N1 response mechanisms.

Corporate pandemic preparation plans should include stockpiles of influenza antiviral medication for employees and development of alternative supply and distribution chains, said WHO Representative for Indonesia, Georg Petersen, told Dow Jones Newswires.

"Financially it makes sense," Petersen said. "Those companies that prepare will likely be able to maintain normal business operations (during a pandemic)."

Concerns about the spread of the disease are rising as health officials scramble to contain and trace the source of an H5N1 outbreak that has resulted in four confirmed human fatalities in Indonesia since July and which the country's minister of health, Siti Fadilah Supari, said Wednesday may become an epidemic.

Across Asia H5N1 has killed at least 63 people since 20003, mostly in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050922/15/3v4v2.html

[Bman]

The Boston Herald

September 25, 2005 Sunday
ALL EDITIONS

Attack of the bird flu: Experts say pandemic inevitable

By Jessica Heslam



While the deadly Avian flu spreads through Asia, Bay State health officials - who have been ``vigorously'' planning for a flu pandemic for six years - doubt the state could ever be completely prepared for a full-blown attack.

``At some point, the pandemic is going to happen. We're prepared better today than we were last week. We can only prepare so far,'' said Dr. Alfred DeMaria, head of communicable disease control for the state Department of Public Health.

Two million people in Massachusetts alone could become ill in six to eight weeks if a flu pandemic hit, according to the state DPH. One million Bay Staters could need outpatient care; 16,800 could be hospitalized and nearly 5,000 could die.

Last century saw three flu pandemics - in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The flu killed half-a-million Americans in 1918.

National and local flu experts say it's inevitable that a sweeping flu pandemic - a worldwide outbreak - occurs every 20 to 50 years.

The H5N1 strain has killed 64 people in Southeast Asia in two years. People have contracted the virus from birds.

Health officials fear the virus eventually will spread from person to person, creating a worldwide outbreak that could kill millions.

``It's not a matter of if, but when we might see another pandemic,'' said Tom Skinner of the federal Centers for Disease Control.

U.S. officials are concerned that hospitals won't be able to hold and care for a lot of patients at one time. Skinner said the technology that produces vaccines needs to be improved so vaccines can be produced more quickly. It now takes four to six months to produce a vaccine.

Should there be a flu pandemic, Massachusetts is slated to get 460,000 vaccine doses a month for one to two years.

State officials are working with businesses to make sure they can still operate should 30 or 40 percent of their employees call in sick, DeMaria said. The state is looking at alternative sites to house people who are ill at the same time.

While a vaccine to fight the current strain of Avian flu is being made, health officials don't know if that particular strain would cause the pandemic. The strain could change over time and require a different vaccine.

``The picture of what the virus (H5N1) can do to humans is pretty gruesome in terms of its mortality,'' said Dr. Kenneth McIntosh, former chief of infectious disease at Children's Hospital in Boston.

``If we're really talking about that kind of pandemic, a virus that spreads efficiently from human to human,'' McIntosh added. ``I don't think anybody can be ready for that, quite honestly. You can do everything you can but it's still going to be a disaster.''

[NYer]

Time to buy more Glaxo shares?

Everyone's looking for Tamiflu now
Long-ignored influenza pill has leap in sales due to vaccine shortage and concerns of bird flu epidemic.
By Paul Elias
The Associated Press


SAN FRANCISCO -- In the first few years after federal regulators approved the influenza-fighting pill Tamiflu in 1999, the drug suffered from lackluster sales and indifference from U.S. health officials more focused on creating new vaccines.

Now, demand for Tamiflu is outstripping supply.



The drug's sales have skyrocketed in recent months as a major U.S. vaccine supplier failed to meet half the nation's needs and the World Health Organization, worried about the threat of a worldwide bird flu epidemic, urges governments to stockpile anti-viral drugs.

http://www.dailybreeze.com/news/nationworld/articles/1748261.html

[NYer]

New England Journal of Medicine has the summary article of a WHO conference held in Hanoi this year. Since there's no abstract, I've attaced the article as a pdf for anyone interested.

[al-Canine]

U.S. Unprepared for Deadly Avian Flu

United States Not Near Top of the Waiting List for Sole Medicine for Bird Virus

There are new concerns in the Senate over whether the United States is prepared for the mysterious and deadly avian flu.

The avian flu virus is spread by chickens, ducks and other birds and has been a problem in Southeast Asia for years. Since late 2003, it has killed at least 65 people in four Asian countries and has also been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

With strains of the virus found in humans, there has been growing concern among U.S. officials about the possibility of a pandemic and whether the United States is prepared to combat the disease.

"Experts warn that a global, cataclysmic pandemic is not a question of 'if' but 'when,' " said Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn.


Millions of Americans Could Be Infected; Treatment Shortage

The draft report of the federal government's emergency plan predicts that as many as 200 million Americans could be infected and 200,000 could die within a few months if the avian flu came to the United States. Right now, there is no vaccine to stop the flu.

"The first thing is, everybody in America's going to say, 'Where's a vaccine?' And they're going to find out that it's really darned hard to make a vaccine," said Laurie Garrett, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. "It takes a really long time."

Although there is no avian flu vaccine, there is one medicine to treat it: Tamiflu. Tamiflu is made by the Roche pharmaceutical company with its plant in Switzerland. Roche says it has been selling Tamiflu for years. Scientists, however, have only recently realized that it is the sole medicine proven effective against avian flu. This has sparked a huge demand for Tamiflu and a shortage of the medicine.

"Our current stockpile is around 2 ½ million courses of treatment," Garrett said. "[It] Looks like we have a shortage."


United States Not at Top of Waiting List

Roche has set up a first-come, first-served waiting list for Tamiflu and sources told ABC News that the United States is nowhere near the top of that list. U.S. officials say they are working to obtain Tamiflu quickly.

"Do we wish we had ordered it sooner and more of it? I suspect one could say yes," said Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt. "Are we moving rapidly to assure that we have it? The answer is also yes."

However, when asked why the United States did not order Tamiflu earlier, Leavitt said, "I can't answer that. I don't know the answer."


World Health Organization Expert to Lead World Response to Avian Flu

The concerns about avian flu come as U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan today appointed one of the World Health Organization's most senior experts to lead a coordinated global response to a possible pandemic. Dr. David Nabarro -- WHO's top health crisis official -- has led the response within the agency to several potential crisis situations, including malaria, environmental health and food safety.

"The appointment is critical as the world is fast recognizing the risk of an imminent human influenza pandemic and is taking steps to reduce the risk and to get prepared," WHO said in a statement.

WHO said several countries have already joined forces to coordinate preparation. Agriculture ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations began meeting in the Philippines today to discuss measures to curb the avian flu virus in birds. One such measure is the creation of a regional animal health trust fund.

In addition, the United States announced a new International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza at last month's World Summit in New York. Several countries are joining the effort, with a planning meeting slated Oct. 7-8 in Washington. WHO is also hosting a meeting of all partners on Nov. 7-8 to coordinate the funding needed.

Copyright © 2005 ABC News Internet Ventures

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Flu/story?id=1169664&page=1

[al-Canine]

Well, on that note...

Senate OKs $4 billion to fight bird flu

Health officials fear virus will mutate and trigger a worldwide outbreak

The Associated Press
Updated: 8:57 p.m. ET Sept. 29, 2005

WASHINGTON - The Senate voted Thursday to provide $4 billion to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to stockpile anti-flu medicine to protect people against bird flu and prepare for a potential outbreak.

By voice vote, senators agreed to tack the proposal onto next year’s $440 billion defense spending bill. The Senate still must approve the overall defense bill, and a vote is expected next week. Then, the Senate must work out a final version with the House, which did not include money for bird flu preparedness in its defense bill.

In recent weeks, the United States has stepped up preparations in case the virus — which has already killed or led to the slaughter of millions of birds in Asia and Europe — sparks an influenza pandemic.

The virus has killed just 60 people thus far, largely because it has not been known to spread easily from person to person. If that changes — and flu viruses mutate regularly — global health officials warn it could trigger a deadly worldwide outbreak that could kill millions of people.


The vote was a victory for Democrats, who sponsored the measure. They feared the U.S. was not ready for a possible outbreak, and pressed their concerns in speeches in which they said the bird flu one of the United States’ greatest threats.

“If we have learned anything from the recent disasters on the Gulf Coast, it is that we must confidently prepare for disasters before they strike so that we are not left picking up the pieces,” said Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, who sponsored the measure.

About $3 billion of the Senate-approved money would be used to buy the anti-flu drug Tamiflu.

Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt has called for a Tamiflu stockpile to treat 20 million people, yet there are only enough pills on hand to treat a few million.

The rest of the money would be used to detect and contain the avian flu around the world, provide grants to local and state health departments, and educate the public.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9535932/

[Jake]

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/COVER/050930/STG_HZ_BirdFluBattle_805a.jpg



http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/COVER/050930/STG_HZ_BirdFluBattle_805a.jpg (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/COVER/050930/STG_HZ_BirdFluBattle_805a.jpg)








.

[NYer]

Can Geraldo Rivera with a hazmat suit be far behind?

[katryd]

http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0510/feature1/

This month's National Geographic issue covers the bird flu very well--wanted to share!

[al-Canine]

Bird flu 'resistant to main drug'

HONG KONG, China (Reuters) -- A strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus that may unleash the next global flu pandemic is showing resistance to Tamiflu, the antiviral drug that countries around the world are now stockpiling to fend off the looming threat.

Experts in Hong Kong said on Friday that the human H5N1 strain which surfaced in northern Vietnam this year had proved to be resistant to Tamiflu, a powerful antiviral drug which goes by the generic name, oseltamivir.

They urged drug manufacturers to make more effective versions of Relenza, another antiviral that is also known to be effective in battling the much feared H5N1. Relenza is inhaled.

"There are now resistant H5N1 strains appearing, and we can't totally rely on one drug (Tamiflu)," William Chui, honorary associate professor with the department of pharmacology at the Queen Mary Hospital in Hong Kong, told Reuters.

Chui was referring to the Tamiflu-resistant strain of H5N1 in Vietnam. Chui also said general viral resistance to Tamiflu was growing in Japan, where doctors habitually prescribe the drug to fight the common influenza.

"Manufacturers should think about producing an injectable form of Relenza because resistance to Tamiflu has been seen in Japan and Vietnam. Also with injections, high doses can be given where necessary and onset time is a lot faster," Chui said.

Drugs that are administered intravenously can be better absorbed in patients who have stomach and acidity problems, another expert said.

"We don't have to worry about absorption, injections take drugs right in. But if the patient takes them orally, maybe some amounts won't be absorbed or some may be destroyed by stomach acids," said pharmacist Raymond Mak at Queen Mary Hospital.

Intravenous Relenza would also ensure faster onset, which would be critical in patients who are seriously ill.

"Orally taken drugs take three to four hours to reach maximum blood concentration and three to four hours is very critical in severe cases. But injectable Relenza takes only 30 minutes to reach maximum blood concentration, this is a huge difference," Chui said.

With an intravenous antiviral, doctors can also vary the doses.

While the H5N1 virus is now mostly passed directly from bird to human, health experts have warned that it is just a matter of time before it mutates into a form that is easily transmissible between people. When that happens, it may result in as many as 150 million human deaths.

Two reports in The Lancet medical journal this month said that resistance to anti-flu drugs was growing worldwide.

In places such as China, drug resistance exceeded 70 percent, suggesting that drugs like amantadine and rimantadine will probably no longer be effective for treatment or as a preventive in a pandemic outbreak of flu, the reports said.

www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09/30/birdflu.drugs.reut/index.html

[NYer]

And what's worse ... Avian Flu threatens to deplete the world's supply of chicken soup. We're all doomed.

[al-Canine]

And what's worse ... Avian Flu threatens to deplete the world's supply of chicken soup. We're all doomed.
Well.... I must say this is one news story I HOPE is just a tempest in a teapot! :food_01:

[Klaus]

The strain has shown resistance to Tamiflu, the only known remedy...




http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4292426.stm

A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, a UN health official has warned.
David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks.

In an earlier interview with the BBC, he said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high.

"The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging," he said.

[Dora]

The strain has shown resistance to Tamiflu, the only known remedy...




http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4292426.stm

A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, a UN health official has warned.
David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks.

In an earlier interview with the BBC, he said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high.

"The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging," he said.
Great - and we got ours filled last week. :mad:

Hi Klaus - doing ok?

[guest_]

New UN pandemic czar says survival of "world as we know it" may be at stake
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

at 16:15 on October 2, 2005, EST.
By HELEN BRANSWELL

TORONTO (CP) - A flu pandemic could fundamentally alter the world as we know it, warns the public health veteran charged with co-ordinating UN planning for and response to the threat.

Inadequate - and inequitably shared - global resources and the uncertainties inherent in trying to predict the behaviour of influenza combine to create planning dilemmas that are "monster difficult," Dr. David Nabarro said in an interview describing his new job and the challenges ahead.

Progress will demand appealing "to people's recognition that we're dealing here with world survival issues - or the survival of the world as we know it," Nabarro explains.

"And therefore we just can't go on approaching it with sort of business-as-usual type approaches."

The former head of the World Health Organization's crisis operations was seconded to the UN to co-ordinate world response to both the ongoing avian influenza outbreak in Southeast Asia and preparations for a human flu pandemic.

A native of Britain, Nabarro says the decision to appoint a planning czar reflects surging political concern that the world may be facing a pandemic springing from the H5N1 avian flu strain, which is decimating poultry in Asia and has already killed at least 60 people in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia.

"Governments have realized that this is something to be worried about," he says, adding the UN must harness that concern and the resources it frees up.

"It's a rare thing, political commitment to deal with a health issue. And when you've got it, you must use it well," he insists.

"We're not going to have such an excellent window of opportunity to really start moving forward with this for long. And so we must take advantage of it now."

One of the monster dilemmas Nabarro describes relates to antiviral drugs, which may be able to blunt the blow of pandemic flu.

But there are only two drugs which, in laboratory settings, work against all possible pandemic strains, oseltamivir (sold as Tamiflu) and zanamivir (sold as Relenza). Both are expensive and made in limited quantities. And there appears to be no quick or easy way to ramp up production.

In addition, the supplies that exist - as well as most of those that will be made in the foreseeable future - are spoken for. They are either squirreled away in or destined for stockpiles held by the world's wealthy nations.

"So we're going to have very little stuff and it's already stuck away in stockpiles ... that people will protect with their lives. And yet we're going to have to find some way to ration these things so that they are given to the folk who need them the most," Nabarro says.


That statement may reflect Nabarro's position on the pandemic learning curve. Setting priorities for who will and won't get antiviral drugs is a responsibility of governments, not the UN or the WHO.

Nabarro also made several missteps in his initial news conference at the UN on Thursday, including straying far afield from the WHO's estimate of the number of deaths a new pandemic might exact. He suggested between five million and 150 million people might die.

Less than 24 hours later the Geneva-based WHO reeled back in Nabarro's estimate, saying its own longstanding projection of two million to 7.4 million excess deaths was more likely. The official WHO estimate was calculated using a mathematical model based largely on the Hong Kong flu of 1968, the mildest pandemic of the last century.

If Nabarro is still learning the myriad intricacies of his new subject, he appears to already understand that the eventual death toll is only a portion of the damage a pandemic would wreak.

"It would really disturb many, many systems and our capacity to cope in many countries would not be that great," he says, predicting food supplies in the developed world - where diets are comprised almost exclusively of purchased (not home-grown) food - "would be particularly badly hit."

A leading advocate for pandemic preparedness, Dr. Michael Osterholm, has warned a pandemic would have a substantial and highly disruptive impact on the production and movement of goods, leading to shortages of many products critical to daily life.

He says at this point, planning for ways to keep society functioning must be the priority task.

"We basically are going to have a lot of the world's population who are going to come through this," says Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"But just as we saw, very painfully in the Gulf States (after Hurricane Katrina), a lot of people are going to suffer a great deal who are going to live.

"And we need to plan about how we're going to minimize that suffering and get those people through so they don't die from other collateral damage-related concerns. Like lack of other medications. Lack of food. Water."

Nabarro acknowledges the challenges ahead are enormous.

"My base point is: How to deal with an issue that's so impossibly difficult that we're bound to end up saying 'We didn't get it right' if there is a pandemic, or, if there isn't a pandemic where people are going to say 'You scared us all for nothing.'"


©The Canadian Press, 2005

[NYer]

Bird-flu warning triggers action
By Marguerite Higgins
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published October 4, 2005

The United States is responding rapidly to concerns about a possible outbreak of avian influenza, awarding a spate of contracts over the past few weeks to stockpile flu-fighting vaccines and drugs.

The World Health Organization, the public health arm of the United Nations, predicted this summer that bird flu will likely become the first human-flu pandemic since 1968.

Dr. David Nabarro, the organization's newly appointed U.N. coordinator for avian influenza, on Thursday projected a bird-flu outbreak could kill between 5 million and 150 million people worldwide. The next day, the U.N. health agency lowered its forecast to 2 million to 7.4 million deaths.

The U.S. government has reacted to the flu threat by awarding several contracts for increased vaccine development and production.

"What this is reflecting is a very intense commitment and effort by the government to be prepared for a flu pandemic," said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda.

"I think you will see over the next couple months an even greater effort," he said.

The health research institute last week tapped MedImmune Inc., a Gaithersburg biotechnology company, to develop and test nasal-spray vaccines for influenza, including the H5N1 virus strain, which has caused the bird-flu epidemic in Asia.

MedImmune already markets a nasal-spray flu vaccine. Terms of its agreement with the institute were not disclosed.

The institute, part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), two weeks earlier awarded a $2.9 million grant to Vical Inc. of San Diego to develop a DNA-based vaccine to guard against naturally emerging forms of bird flu.

HHS also has invested in a bird-flu vaccine with a $100 million contract award last month to Sanofi Pasteur, the Swiftwater, Pa., vaccine business of French drug company Sanofi-Aventis Group. Sanofi Pasteur will make a vaccine that will protect against the H5N1 virus strain.

Dr. Fauci's institute since March has been testing another vaccine Sanofi Pasteur made from an inactive strain of avian influenza. Preliminary tests in August showed promise.

HHS last month bought 84,300 doses of zanamivir, an antiviral drug marketed as Relenza that treats bird flu, from British drug company GlaxoSmithKline for $2.8 million.

The health agency is stockpiling zanamivir and oseltamivir, another antiviral drug that treats influenza. Oseltamivir, sold as Tamiflu, is made by Roche Laboratories Inc., the Nutley, N.J., subsidiary of Roche, a Basel, Switzerland, pharmaceutical company.

The U.S. has about 2.3 million Tamiflu doses in storage and plans to have 2 million more by December, with the goal of having the treatment available for 25 percent of the nation's population, Dr. Fauci said.

The U.S. government hopes to increase the number of manufacturing plants that can make flu vaccines, he added.

Bird-flu vaccine production faces the same problems that have plagued traditional flu-vaccine companies, said Dr. Marie Vodicka of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.

Factory space is limited because of high costs and regulatory hurdles, said Dr. Vodicka, assistant vice president for biotechnology and biologics for the Washington trade group.

HHS is considering relaxing some regulations or offering tax rebates to manufacturers, but has not decided yet how it will lure more companies to the vaccine market, Dr. Fauci said.

The U.S. faced a flu-shot shortage last year after British health authorities shut down a Liverpool factory operated by Chiron Corp., a major flu-vaccine supplier with headquarters in Emeryville, Calif.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently projected that four manufacturers will provide up to 97 million doses of vaccine for this year's flu season. The agency would not say how many doses will be needed for the coming season.

http://washingtontimes.com/functions/print.php?StoryID=20051004-120043-6248r

[al-Canine]

Bush Weighs Strategies to Counter Possible Outbreak of Bird Flu

By BRIAN KNOWLTON,
International Herald Tribune

WASHINGTON, Oct. 4 - President Bush said today that he was working to prepare the United States for a possibly deadly outbreak of avian flu. He said he had weighed whether to quarantine parts of the country and also whether to employ the military for the difficult task of enforcing such a quarantine.

"I am concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world," he said at a White House news conference.

The president emphasized that he was not predicting such an outbreak. "I'm just suggesting to you that we better be thinking about it," he told reporters, "and we are. And we're more than thinking about it, we're trying to put plans in place."

Since 2003, the avian flu has killed about 65 people in Southeast Asia who had been in contact with infected fowl. So far the virus has not mutated into a strain capable of transmission from one human to another.

If it does, scientists say that it could kill millions of people worldwide, reminiscent of the 1918-19 Spanish-flu pandemic, which claimed more lives than World War I. Because the virus is new, humans have little or no defense against it. It kills about half of those infected, and an outbreak could spread around the world in days.

Up to now, bird flu has not received extensive public attention in the United States. But Mr. Bush, in devoting a long and detailed reply to the subject, appeared intent on raising public awareness and promoting readiness, as well as demonstrating his own.

He referred to the "H5N1 virus," said he had read a book by John M. Barry on the 1918 pandemic, and had been briefed by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who heads the infectious disease unit at the National Institutes of Health.

An outbreak would pose difficult policy decisions for a president, Mr. Bush said, including the question of imposing a regional quarantine.

"It's one thing to shut down your airplanes, it's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu," he said. Doing so, Mr. Bush said, might even involve using "a military that's able to plan and move."

The president had already raised, in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the delicate question of giving the military a larger role in responding to domestic disasters. His comment today appeared to presage a concerted push to change laws that limit military activities in domestic affairs.

Mr. Bush said he knew that some governors, all of them commanders of their states' National Guards, resented being told by Washington how to use their Guard forces.

"But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate," Mr. Bush said. One such circumstance, he suggested, would be an avian flu outbreak. He said a president needed every available tool "to be able to deal with something this significant."

While in New York last month to address the United Nations General Assembly, President Bush proposed an "international partnership" to combat the disease.

He said today that he had spoken "privately to as many leaders as I could find" at the United Nations about raising public awareness and ensuring maximum efforts to quickly report any instances of the disease to the World Health Organization.

The W.H.O. and the European Union have been urging countries for months to prepare for a possible pandemic.

The president said he had spoken to Dr. Fauci about development of a vaccine, but added that "we're just not that far down the manufacturing process." He said he wanted to encourage potential vaccine manufacturers to be poised to react urgently.

The United States last month ordered $100 million worth of a promising vaccine from the French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis.

When the secretary of health and human services, Tommy Thompson, resigned in December, he was asked what health threat worried him most. He cited the avian flu.

"This is a really huge bomb," he said, "that could adversely impact on the health care of the world," killing tens of millions.


Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/politics/04cnd-prexy.html?

[al-Canine]

Note from Mod:
I have merged as many NEWS threads as I could find concerning Avian Influenza. Hopefully this should give those interested in this subject a comprehensive view of this continually developing story. Note that our fearless leader REGIS is now the original author of the thread, having posted the first news about it many months ago. Thanks, Regis! :)

[mltr79]

i know this
the virus has spread to russia and it will soon soread throughout the world
the goverments of the affected countires are very much concerned about the danger of the approachind pandemic
dont know when it will start
i have read a lot about this virus and its treatment at http://www.drugdelivery.ca/s3353-s-TAMIFLU.aspx

have a look and you will find it very interesting

[Naqsh]

Damn - no more chicken wings for me.

That sucks - well at least its during ramadhaan

[NYer]

i have read a lot about this virus and its treatment at http://www.drugdelivery.ca/s3353-s-TAMIFLU.aspx

As posted previously by A-C, there are reports of Tamiflu resistance...

[NYer]

Damn - no more chicken wings for me.

That sucks - well at least its during ramadhaan

There's always Chinese Take - Out.

[Dora]

There's always Chinese Take - Out.
Only if you like cat. :)

[Bows]

H5N1 virus linked to 1918 flu pandemic
10/06/2005 -- 17:43(GMT+7)

Washington, Oct. 10 (VNA) – American scientists have discovered that the H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus shares some genetic similarities with the virus that caused the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed about 50 million people.

The discovery has raised growing concerns about the possibility that the H5N1 strain of avian flu may transmit between humans and cause a global pandemic.

The scientists compared strains of the 1918 virus with those of the current H5N1 virus and detected that the H5N1 virus has begun to undergo genetic changes in the same way the 1918 virus did.

They also discovered that the haemagglutinin (HA) protein, found in both the H5N1 virus and the 1918 virus, is a dangerous protein that enables the viruses to infiltrate into in cells where they develop.

The scientists hoped that the discovery will help them define the pathogens of the disease and enable them to develop antiviral drugs and vaccines.-Enditem

http://www.vnagency.com.vn/NewsA.asp?LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=34&NEWS_ID=169482

[NYer]

Australian bird flu vaccine trials begin

Australian scientists have begun a trial to develop a vaccine against bird flu.

The vaccine, which is being produced by CSL, is the first of its type in the world and could be ready by the middle of next year.

More than 60 people have died since 2000 after contracting the bird flu from poultry.

There is an epidemic among Asian bird populations and health authorities believe a human pandemic is almost inevitable if the virus mutates and transmits from human to human.

Australia has accelerated trials of a vaccine, with 400 people in Melbourne and Adelaide to be injected with a dead virus.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200510/s1474450.htm

[al-Canine]

First deadly bird flu cases suspected in Europe

H591 virus may have caused deaths of ducks in Romania, officials say

Reuters
Updated: 8:14 p.m. ET Oct. 7, 2005

Three domestic ducks have died of bird flu in eastern Romania, but authorities said Friday they had not confirmed whether the birds were infected by the H5N1 strain that experts are tracking for fear it could mutate and spawn a human flu pandemic.

There are several strains of bird flu but only a few are deadly. Agriculture officials said they strongly suspected that tests now under way in Britain would confirm the birds were infected with H5N1.

If so, it would be the first time the virus strain has been detected in Europe.

Authorities worldwide are on alert for confirmed cases of fowl infected with H5N1 now circulating in parts of Asia.

H5N1 has infected 116 people in Asia, killing 60 — but experts are more worried the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily between people. That could trigger a human flu pandemic.

The best defense against a pandemic is to stamp out any outbreak in birds before the virus has a chance to change.

The dead birds were first noticed in the remote eastern village of Ceamurlia de Jos near the Black Sea in late September, Agriculture Minister Gheorghe Flutur said. Samples were sent to a lab in Bucharest, where scientists found antibodies to bird flu.

However, that lab did not have the capability to determine the exact strain of the virus, and sent the samples to Britain. Results were expected in the next few days.

© 2005 MSNBC.com

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9624149/

[Atlas]

Quarantine call after Romania detects first bird flu cases
Oct 07 3:33 PM US/Eastern

Romanian authorities called for all farm birds in the southeastern Danube delta to be kept indoors after the country's first three cases of bird flu were detected in the region.

"The virus has been identified in three ducks in the village of Ceanurlia de Jos (southeastern Romania)," Agriculture Minister Gheorghe Flutur said.

"We have already imposed quarantine measures in the village and the health authorities in the Danube delta have been put on alert," he told a press conference.

"The virus was probably carried into Romania by migrating birds from Russia," Flutur said.

The Romanian test results were to be sent to a European Union-approved laboratory in Britain for further analysis.

Health Minister Eugen Nicolaescu said the government would step up its anti-flu vaccination campaign for residents of the Danube delta, a haunt of migrating birds.

Romanian authorities took steps last month to start vaccinating all birds in the delta in a bid to prevent a spread of bird flu.

A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed 63 people in Southeast Asia since 2003, most of them in Vietnam.

The World Health Organisation's biggest fear is that H5N1 may mutate, acquiring genes from the human influenza virus that would make it highly infectious as well as lethal, possibly killing millions worldwide.

No specific vaccine can be produced until the virus mutates, but antiviral medication might be effective if given quickly when symptoms develop.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/10/07/051007193345.xn00dt5o.html

[al-Canine]

U.S. Not Ready for Deadly Flu

By GARDINER HARRIS

WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says that a large outbreak that began in Asia would, because of modern travel patterns, likely reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed; riots would engulf vaccination clinics; and even power and food would be in short supply, the plan, obtained by The New York Times, says.

The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments, and hospitals and healthcare workers should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents now that would justify quarantining thousands.

The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.

It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within 6 months, more than 10 times the country's present capacity.

On Friday, President Bush asked the leaders of the nation's top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush Administration's efforts to plan for a possible pandemic flu have become controversial, with many Democrats in Congress charging that the administration has not done enough. Many have pointed to the lengthy writing process of the flu plan as evidence of this. Delays by the Administration have meant that antiviral medications that are an important part of pandemic preparations are now in short supply.

But while the administration's flu plan, officially called the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan, closely outlines how the Health and Human Services Department might react during a pandemic, it skirts many essential decisions, such as how the military might be deployed.

"The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The New York Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."

The official asked for anonymity because the plan is not supposed to be distributed. The draft provided to The Times is dated Sept. 30, and is stamped "for internal H.H.S. use only." The plan asks government officials to clear it by Oct. 6.

Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt, responded, "We recognize that the H.H.S. plan will be a foundation for a government-wide plan, and that process has already begun."

Ms. Pearson said that Mr. Leavitt has already had one-on-one meetings with other cabinet secretaries to begin the coordination process across the federal government. But she emphasized that the plan given to The Times is a draft and has not been finalized.

Mr. Leavitt is leaving Saturday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations, where he will meet with health and agriculture officials to discuss planning for a pandemic flu. He said at a briefing Friday that the administration's flu plan would officially be released soon. And he emphasized that the chances of the virus now killing birds in Asia becoming a human pandemic are low. A pandemic is global epidemic of disease.

"It may be a while longer, but pandemic will likely occur in the future," he said.

And he said that the administration's plan is an essential starting point for planning for state and local officials.

"It will require school districts to have a plan on how they will deal with school opening and closing," he said. "It will require the mayor to have a plan on whether or not they're going to ask the theaters not to have a movie."

"Over the next couple of months you will see a great deal of activity asking metropolitan areas, 'Are you ready.' If not, here is what must be done," he said.

A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage scenario for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, national guard and other national security groups were left out.

Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, police, firefighters and government leaders are next.

The plan also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million courses of antiviral treatment. Presently the administration has purchased 4.3 million.

The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the department of defense.

Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television move-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic scenario that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."

"Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.

The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. The scientists discover that "the vaccine developed previously for the avian strain will only provide partial protection," the plan states.

In June, federal health officials find airline passengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities," the plan states. By July, small outbreaks are being reported around the nation. It spreads. As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid to become sick.

Hospitals are overwhelmed. "Social unrest occurs," the plan states. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories." Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed.

Police, fire and transportation services are limited by personnel shortages, the plan states, and even food and power are in short supply. Pig herds are decimated.

Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.

Lawrence K. Altman contributed reporting for this article.

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/08/politics/08flu.html?

[pixikill]

Bird flu vaccine trial set to begin
October 5, 2005 - 5:10PM


Providing enough vaccine to inoculate every Australian against pandemic bird flu would take about three months once a vaccine was approved, pharmaceutical manufacturer CSL said.

Melbourne-based CSL is sponsoring a trial of 400 Australian volunteers to test the effectiveness and safety of a candidate avian flu vaccine amid growing fears of a pandemic.

The strain under trial was taken from a bird flu victim in Vietnam and neutralised to prevent it from being contagious.

A particularly virulent strain of avian flu, known as H5N1, has already killed more than 60 people in four Asian countries since 2003, mostly in Vietnam.

Final data from the Australian trial is not expected until the middle of next year.

But CSL's Rachel David said if a pandemic broke out before then, the company would work closely with the federal government and the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) to produce an acceptable vaccine as soon as possible.

She said once the TGA registered a pandemic flu vaccine, the first batches would be ready within six weeks.


"We should have enough to give every Australian a dose within three months," Dr David said.

"It's a pretty quick process."

CSL is among a handful of companies worldwide racing to have a pandemic flu vaccine ready just in case.

Most of the people who have already died from H5N1 have had direct contact with infected birds.

But scientists are worried if avian flu mixes with a type of human flu, it may develop into a new, highly infectious strain that's easily transmitted between people.

If that happens, the virus could spread by people simply coughing and sneezing.

Virologist Ian Gust, director of WHO's Collaborating Centre on Influenza in Melbourne, said preparations to limit deaths and hospitalisations in the event of a pandemic were the most extensive in world history.

"I think that if you look at Australia's response and compare it with the rest of the world, it would be as good as any country," Professor Gust said.

He said deaths of millions of birds from the H5N1 virus were unprecedented in scale.

"Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza occur relatively commonly, but they're normally of a small scale and very easily controlled," Prof Gust said in an interview.

"The outbreaks that we've seen of avian flu in Asia and now moving towards Europe are totally unprecedented.

"This is tens or even hundreds of millions of birds involved whereas normally it's a few hundred or a few thousand."

The first of 200 Melbourne volunteers are due to have one of two jabs with the trial vaccine by the end of the week and Adelaide volunteers will begin being inoculated next Monday.

© 2005 AAP

[NYer]

Just in time for Flu Season ...

Avian Flu will be covered on Neil Cavuto's show this morning.

[pixikill]

Aussies to test bird flu vaccine
October 4, 2005 - 1:34PM


Hundreds of Australian volunteers will begin testing different formulations of a bird flu vaccine this week amid growing fears of a global pandemic.

The trial is aimed at obtaining a vaccine to prevent the spread of bird flu in the event of a pandemic and to determine which of four formulations produce the best immune response.

About 400 healthy Australians aged 18 to 45 in Melbourne and Adelaide will receive their first vaccinations later this week.

A particularly virulent strain of avian flu, known as H5N1, already has killed more than 60 people in four Asian countries since 2003..


CSL is sponsoring the trial and has received $4.93 million from the federal government to fast track production of a pandemic flu vaccine.

The government grant has allowed the trial to go ahead around seven months earlier than originally planned.

Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott has warned producing a vaccine against a pandemic flu strain could take at least six months because of the difficulty in developing a candidate vaccine virus which is effective and safe.

The government has negotiated with CSL and European company Sanofi Pasteur to supply 50 million doses of pandemic flu vaccine should it become available.

- AAP

[NYer]

From the CDC ...

Antiviral Agents for Influenza

Four different influenza antiviral drugs (amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir, and zanamivir) are approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment and/or prophylaxis of influenza. All four have activity against influenza A viruses. However, sometimes influenza strains can become resistant to these drugs, and therefore the drugs may not always be effective. For example, analyses of some of the 2004 H5N1 viruses isolated from poultry and humans in Asia have shown that the viruses are resistant to two of the medications (amantadine and rimantadine). Monitoring of avian viruses for resistance to influenza antiviral medications is ongoing.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/avian-flu-humans.htm

[experiencediz]

The first reported outbreak of bird flu in Turkey
Time is GMT + 8 hours
Posted: 09 October 2005 0206 hrs

ANKARA : The first reported outbreak of bird flu in Turkey has killed some 2,000 turkeys in the northwestern province of Balikesir, a government official there said Saturday.

Deputy governor Halil Yavuz Kaya told Turkish CNN television that a quarantine had been imposed on a turkey farm in the province's Manyas region.

He added that the turkeys probably contracted the disease from migratory birds and that the outbreak was isolated.

Manyas is home to a nature reserve known for its wide variety of birds.

A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed 63 people in Southeast Asia since 2003, most of them in Vietnam.

The World Health Organisation's biggest fear is that H5N1 may mutate, acquiring genes from the human influenza virus that would make it highly infectious as well as lethal, possibly killing millions worldwide.

No specific vaccine can be produced until the virus mutates, but antiviral medication might be effective if given quickly when symptoms develop.

Bird flu found in Turkey (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/172423/1/.html)

[Atlas]

Man, this is spreading at an alarming rate

[al-Canine]

"We should be worried but not panicked." --Dr. Andrew T. Pavia, chief of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah and chairman of the pandemic influenza task force of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Danger of Flu Pandemic Is Clear, if Not Present

By DENISE GRADY

Fear of the bird flu sweeping across Asia has played a major role in the government's flurry of preparations for a worldwide epidemic.

That concern prompted President Bush to meet Friday with vaccine makers to try to persuade them to step up production, and it led Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt to depart yesterday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations to discuss planning for a pandemic flu.

But scientists say that although the threat from the current avian virus is real, it is probably not immediate.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said a bird flu pandemic was unlikely this year.

"How unlikely, I can't quantitate it," Dr. Fauci said. But, he added, "You must prepare for the worst-case scenario. To do anything less would be irresponsible."

"I would not say it's imminent or inevitable," said Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, chief of the molecular pathology department at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology. "I think in the future there will be a pandemic." But, he said, whether that pandemic will be bird flu or another type, no one can say.

The Bush administration is in the final stages of preparing a plan to deal with pandemic flu. A draft shows that the country is woefully unprepared, and it warns that a severe pandemic will kill millions, overwhelm hospitals and disrupt much of the nation.

What worries scientists about the current strain of bird flu, known as H5N1, is that it has shown some ominous traits. Though it does not often infect humans, it can, and when it does, it seems to be uncommonly lethal. It has killed 60 people of the 116 known to have been infected.

Alarm heightened on Thursday when a scientific team led by Dr. Taubenberger reported that the 1918 flu virus, which killed 50 million people worldwide, was also a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

There is a crucial difference, however: the 1918 flu was highly contagious, while today's bird flu has so far shown little ability to spread from person to person. But a mutation making the virus more transmissible could set the stage for a pandemic.

Another concern is that H5N1 has become widespread, killing millions of birds in 11 countries and widely dispersing as migratory birds carry it even greater distances. This month, it was reported in Romania.

Meanwhile, it is spreading widely among birds in Asia. And it has unusual staying power: it has persisted in different parts of the world since it emerged in 1997.

"Most bird flus emerge briefly and are relatively localized," said Dr. Andrew T. Pavia, chief of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah and chairman of the pandemic influenza task force of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. The most worrisome thing about H5N1, Dr. Pavia said, is that it has not gone away.

Some scientists suspect that if H5N1 has not caused a pandemic by now, then it will not, because it must be incapable of making the needed changes. But others say there is no way to tell what the virus will do as time goes on. And they point out that no one knows how long it took for the 1918 virus to develop the properties that led to a pandemic.

Meanwhile, H5N1 seems to be finding its way into more and more species. Once known to infect chickens, ducks and the occasional person, the virus is now found in a wide range of birds, and it has infected cats.

"It killed tigers at the Bangkok zoo, which is quite remarkable because flu is not traditionally a big problem for cats," Dr. Pavia said.

It has also infected pigs, which in the past have been a vehicle to carry viruses from birds to humans.

"We should be worried but not panicked," Dr. Pavia concluded.

The timing of the bird flu's emergence also makes scientists nervous, because many believe that based on history, the world is overdue for a pandemic. Pandemics occur when a flu virus changes so markedly from previous strains that people have no immunity, and vast numbers fall ill.

"In the 20th century there were three pandemics, which means an average of one every 30 years," Dr. Fauci said. "The last one was in 1968, so it's 37 years. Just on the basis of evolution, of how things go, we're overdue."

Dr. Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program Office, said: "You get this sense of compounding risks. First, it's in some birds. Then more. Then more area, then more mammals and then to humans, albeit inefficiently."

In just a few instances, Dr. Gellin noted, the virus does appear to have spread from person to person.

"The only thing it hasn't done is to become an efficient transmitter among humans," he said. "It's done all the other things that are steps toward becoming a pandemic virus."

But not everyone is equally worried about the bird flu.

The fear "is very much overdone, in my opinion," said Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor of immunology at New York Medical College, who has treated flu patients since the 1957 pandemic and has studied the 1918 flu.

The bird flu, he said, is distantly related to earlier flus, and humans have already been exposed to them, providing some resistance.

Scientists also say that the death rate may not be as high as it appears, because some milder cases may not have been reported.

Dr. Kilbourne and other experts also noted that when viruses become more transmissible, they almost always become less lethal. Viruses that let their hosts stay alive and pass the disease on to others, he explained, have a better chance of spreading than do strains that kill off their hosts quickly.

Moreover, he said, while much has been made of comparisons between the current avian flu and the 1918 strain, the factors that helped increase the flu's virulence in 1918 - the crowding together of millions of World War I troops in ships, barracks, trenches and hospitals - generally do not exist today for humans.

But an essential difference is that people carrying the flu today can board international flights and carry the disease around the world in a matter of hours.

Dr. Kilbourne emphasized that medical care had improved greatly since 1918. Although some flu victims then turned blue overnight and drowned from blood, with fluid leaking into their lungs, many more died of what are now believed to be bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.

Although the death toll from that flu was high, the actual death rate was less than 5 percent.

In addition, more people now live in cities, where they have probably caught more flus, giving them immunity to later ones. "In 1918, you had a lot of farm boys getting their first contact with city folks who'd had these things," Dr. Kilbourne said.

What researchers wish they could do now is look at a flu virus like H5N1 and predict whether it is heading down the genetic road to becoming a pandemic strain.

"I hope in the future we will be able to do that, work out which mutations are critical," Dr. Taubenberger said. "We know the 1918 strain had everything it needed."

Andrew Pollack and Donald G. McNeil Jr. contributed reporting for this article.

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/national/09flu.html?

[experiencediz]

U.S. working on plan
Oct. 8, 2005

LAURAN NEERGAARD
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - A super-flu could kill up to 1.9 million Americans, according to a draft of the government's plan to fight a worldwide epidemic.
Officials are rewriting that plan to designate not just who cares for the sick but who will keep the country running amid the chaos, said an influenza specialist who is advising the government on those decisions.

"How do you provide food, water ... basic security for the population?" asked Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, a government adviser who has a copy of the draft plan and described it for The Associated Press.

"This is a much more comprehensive view than has previously been detailed," he said in an interview Saturday.

The Bush administration has spent the last year updating its plan for how to fight the next flu pandemic. While it is impossible to say when one will strike, the fear is that the bird flu in Asia could trigger one if it mutates to start spreading easily among people.

A recent draft of the plan, first reported Saturday by The New York Times, models what might happen based on the last century's three pandemics.

In a best-case scenario, about 200,000 people might die.

But if the next pandemic resembles the birdlike 1918 Spanish flu, as many as 1.9 million could die, Osterholm said. Millions more would be ill, overwhelming hospitals.

"You plan for the worst-case scenario," he said. "If it's less than that, thank God."

The government has on hand enough of the anti-flu drug Tamiflu to treat 4.3 million people. Manufacturing of $100 million worth of a bird flu vaccine just began.

The draft makes clear that tens of millions more doses of each would be needed. That is far more than the world has the capacity to manufacture quickly.

To finish that draft plan, federal health officials for several weeks have been role-playing what would happen if a super-flu struck now - not next year, after more medicines and vaccines have been stockpiled.

The strategy, Osterholm said, is, "Don't emphasize what you can buy, emphasize what you can get your hands on. If it happens tonight, how do you deal with order?"

For example, health workers would need to wear special masks, known as N-95 masks, to prevent infection while treating patients. Two U.S. companies produce 90 percent of the world's supply and "we'll run out overnight," Osterholm said.

Also being considered is the possibility that Tamiflu will not be powerful enough to treat someone already sick, but could protect against illness if given beforehand. So who would get the 4.3 million doses?

Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt recently met with Cabinet secretaries to get other federal agencies to determine their role in stemming rioting at vaccine clinics; when to close schools; how to keep gasoline, electricity, food and water supplies running; and how to manage the economic fallout.

State health officers also are being asked for input, Osterholm said.

"The HHS plan is going to be the foundation of a larger government-wide plan," said Leavitt's spokeswoman, Christina Pearson. "Beyond health care, there are issues with banks and schools, and that states and other place have to have their own plans."

Democrats have criticized the administration for not having a plan. Sen. Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat, said in a statement Saturday that time for action was short.

"Having a plan on paper does nothing to protect us," Harkin said while urging the administration to work with Congress on implementing protections against a pandemic. "Next month is too late. The United States is woefully unprepared for this, and we must get started immediately."


Background on bird flu (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/)

•U.S. working on plan to designate who will keep country running in case of flu pandemic (http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/breaking/101105flu_plan.php)

[NYer]

Some foot-dragging in the UK ...


Avian Flu Moves Closer to Europe.

Good news and bad news on the avian flu front.

The disease is confirmed in Turkey and a suspected outbreak in Romania turns out not to be one. But the truly important news? That our Lords and Masters in the British Government are not taking this seriously. No, not the movement of the disease in birds across the world, that’s not the important point. For the change to occur which would lead to human to human transmission is most likely to happen where birds and humans live packed close together in enforced proximity, which means that any outbreak is most likely to start in SE Asia, however many birds around the world get it.

No, the important thing is to be working on vaccines.

The Times has learnt that urgent studies into improved vaccines are being held up because the Government is stalling over financial support. The Department of Health has yet to respond to detailed proposals submitted by British virologists almost eight months ago, even though the work is widely acknowledged to be desperately needed to create vaccines.

Flu experts said that the delay was unacceptable when vaccine development should be every country’s priority for health research.

“The length of time this has taken is inordinately long,” said Sir John Skehel, director of the National Institute for Medical Research and vice-president of the Academy of Medical Sciences. “There’s no doubt that the trial in H5 is an emergency matter and should be done as quickly as possible, given refereeing safeguards to ensure quality. It really is the number one priority across the board. That should be it.”
...

A candidate vaccine has been developed by Sanofi Pasteur, a French pharmaceutical company, but trials in the US have shown that it confers immunity only at very high doses, which must be four times stronger than conventional flu shots.

Without substantial improvements to the vaccine, it will be possible to cover only about 75 million of the world’s population of 6 billion people, even if every conventional factory is switched to make the new jab.

The British research is important as it aims to reduce the amount of vaccine needed for protection, and thus expand the numbers immunised. The team, led by John Wood, of the National Institute of Biological Standards and Control in Hertfordshire, and Karl Nicholson, Professor of Infectious Diseases at the University of Leicester, plans to test booster chemicals known as adjuvants that enhance the immmune system’s response to the vaccine.

While the US National Institutes of Health is investing heavily in H5N1 vaccine research, it has yet to investigate adjuvants, and the British group is among the most experienced in the world in the field.

A formal proposal was sent to the Department of Health in the early spring, but the researchers are still waiting for a response. Professor Nicholson said: “I’m very concerned indeed. I’m extremely sorry to say that in the UK, though we have made vaccine strains, the Department of Health hasn’t actioned critically important work that needs to be done.”

Dr Wood said that the systems for funding medical research in Britain and the European Union were not equipped to handle proposals that needed quick decisions.

Even if money were made available immediately, the hold-up meant that the work would not be able to begin until next year. The rigid timetables of vaccine manufacturers, which are now producing standard flu jabs for the southern hemisphere winter, mean that no facilities will be available to make batches for trials until the spring. An opportunity was missed during the summer because of the funding delays. David Salisbury, principal medical officer of the Department of Health’s communicable disease branch, defended the delay, saying it would be wrong to commission the work without proper consideration.

So, let’s see, we’ve had a Nobel Prize Winner in Medicine telling us that an outbreak of flu, a pandemic, is inevitable. We have a candidate in the current avian flu. And our public health authorities (one of the few justifications for Government that even the most rigid libertarian would support) do nothing for 8 months. Wonderful, what a stunning justification of the current system.

http://timworstall.typepad.com/timworstall/2005/10/avain_flu_moves.html

[Unregistered Bastard]

I have a question about the Bird Flu. What is the general health of the people contrating the disease? Young, elderly, sick, healthy?

[NYer]

I have a question about the Bird Flu. What is the general health of the people contrating the disease? Young, elderly, sick, healthy?

This appears to be a highly pathogenic virus ...

Regarding 10 patients in Viet Nam:


None of the 10 patients (mean age, 13.7 years) had preexisting medical conditions. Nine of them had a clear history of direct contact with poultry (median time before onset of illness, three days).

N Engl J Med. 2004 Mar 18;350(12):1179-88. Epub 2004 Feb 25.

[Klaus]

They generally work in poultry farms.
I guess 10-40 years old and average health.
Not too young or elderly.

[al-Canine]

What would a modern quarantine look like?

Experts: Isolating bird flu patients could be accomplished in several ways

The Associated Press
Updated: 5:34 p.m. ET Oct. 10, 2005

WASHINGTON - Quarantine — or some version of it — in a 21st-century flu pandemic would look very different from the medieval stereotype of diseased outcasts locked in a do-not-enter zone.

President Bush’s specter of a military-enforced mass quarantine is prompting debate of the Q-word as health officials update the nation’s plan for battling a pandemic — a plan expected to define who decides when and how to separate the contagious from everyone else.

“All the options need to be on the table,” said Dr. Marty Cetron, head of quarantine at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Bush’s comments recall how quarantines were enforced in parts of this country in the 1890s, when armed guards patrolled streets to keep victims of smallpox and other dread diseases confined to their homes.

'A whole range of options'

“The image that perhaps was inadvertently conveyed is really a setting in extreme that’s less likely,” Cetron cautioned. “There’s a whole range of options in the public-health toolbox for ways to achieve this goal of social distancing.”

For three years the CDC has been helping states plan how they would enact quarantines in case of a bioterrorism attack. The instructions stress using the least restrictive means necessary to stem an infection’s spread.

And public health officials expect a U.S. quarantine today to almost always be voluntary, with incentives to cooperate. In case of a horrific outbreak, quarantined areas would get first shipments of scarce medicines.

“I don’t think either the Tennessee National Guard or the U.S. Army and Marines will try to establish a cordon sanitaire around Nashville,” said Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University, an influenza expert who advises the federal government. “That’s not going to happen.”

Actually, “we practice in this country quarantine every day,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt. “If a child gets the measles, their mothers are expected to keep them at home.”

Vaccination is the cornerstone of fighting a pandemic, and quarantine-like steps are supposed to be brief, “designed to buy time until we have an adequate supply of countermeasures,” CDC’s Cetron said.

Voluntary measures?

The SARS epidemic of 2003 illustrated that “the public will voluntarily comply with measures to both protect themselves and their loved ones” — if doctors make the case that the steps are for their own good, he added.

Legally, “isolation” is the term for separating people who already are sick from others. That happens routinely in hospitals, as they limit access to patients being treated for certain infections.

“Quarantine” means restricting the movement of still healthy people who may have been exposed to an infectious disease, in case they’re carrying it. It’s almost always for a brief time; during SARS, for instance, hospital workers exposed to suspect cases were asked to stay home from work during the respiratory disease’s 10-day incubation period.

States have the primary legal authority to enact quarantines during outbreaks within their borders. Federal quarantine authority involves preventing infectious diseases from entering the country and stopping interstate spread. Expanding that authority to encompass a military role might entail legislation, something lawmakers’ staffs have begun mulling as public health experts downplay the need.

With SARS, CDC used its existing authority to stop that virus from spreading here like it did in Asia: Over three months, CDC workers delayed on the tarmac 12,000 airplanes carrying 3 million passengers arriving from SARS-affected countries. Anyone with SARS symptoms was isolated. Anyone possibly exposed was told what symptoms to watch for in the next 10 days and how to seek help without exposing entire emergency rooms if symptoms arose.

SARS showed that tracking down patients and people they may have exposed — allowing individuals, not large areas, to be contained — can work, Cetron said.

Flu would spread more easily than SARS

At the same time, a super-flu would demand more intense measures because it would spread more easily, perhaps even before symptoms appeared. Drafts of the pandemic plan make clear that affected communities would probably close schools, shut down large gatherings and restrict travel.

Ramping up gradually is crucial to minimize social and economic fallout, Schaffner cautioned.

He offered his home city of Nashville as an example: Authorities first might urge people to watch the Titans play football on TV instead of at the stadium, and to avoid shopping malls. Then schools might close for a while. Then people might be told to postpone holidays or business trips to Nashville, all steps to stem transmission by minimizing contact — but well short of compulsory quarantine.

“We’re going to have to permit ourselves a graduated, intelligent response to the magnitude of the threat,” he concluded.

© 2005 The Associated Press

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9653037/

[al-Canine]

Former N.Y. FBI agent agrees it's better to be safe than sorry

After last week's announcement by New York City officials that they had received information regarding a possible terrorist attack on that city's subway system, followed by statements from the Department of Homeland Security that discredited the information, some people are asking whether New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg and his team did the right thing.

Bill Gavin, a former assistant director in charge of the FBI for New York, told MSNBC's Chris Jansing on Monday that New York's 'better safe than sorry' stance is the way to go.

"I think that Mayor Bloomberg and the commissioner did exactly the right thing in New York. The threat was there, they were vetting the threat to see the credibility of it," he said. "There is no way that Ray Kelly could take a chance and not do something that could protect millions of people that reside within his city."

Gavin said any second-guessing has to be balanced with the possibility that the publicity surrounding the warning was helpful in quelling an attack.

"Homeland Security can sit in Washington D.C. and look at things from another perspective," he said. "However, there was a threat and the fact that it was never actualized in the city could very well be because of the actions that the city took in order to prevent such a threat from occurring."

According to Gavin, officials can't be too careful.

"The other side of that is that if you don't say anything and something does occur, there would be just a horrible situation for everybody to have to face," he said.

Gavin said he believes that security must be beefed up on U.S. transit systems, and believes that cameras could be the key.

"When you look at what happened in London, they have a terrific camera system throughout the entire system and throughout the entire city of London," he said. "I think that perhaps we have to develop a strategy in this country, though Homeland Security and through the advice of people like Ray Kelly who are the implementers of such security systems - we have to develop something in this country that is workable and do-able so that we might be able to prevent it.

"If something did occur, we'd have a much better reaction to addressing it and identifying the perpetrators," Gavin said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9653366/

[NYer]

What would a modern quarantine look like?



Probably not like this ...

http://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictures/grail/small/HolyGrail004.jpg

Bring Out Your Dead!

[pixikill]

If that bird flu reaches Britain it will probably be the death of me, because for one thing I ain't going to stop kissing my lovebird, and for another thing, if anyone try's to come and destroy her, I will fucking shoot them.
stand your ground, mate! stand your ground! :)

[Infidel]

Experiencediz - your maths does not make sense

if Iraq + US = Al-Qaida
then, by using simple algebra if you take the US out of Iraq you need to deduct US from both sides of the equation - that is:

Iraq = Al-Qaida - US

I don't think that equals "the end" to the current chaos!


Infidel

[al-Canine]

Homeland Security to be lead in flu crisis

But DHS will defer all medical response to Health and Human Services

By Brock N. Meeks
Chief Washington correspondent | MSNBC

WASHINGTON - If the nightmare of an avian flu pandemic emerges from the dark chapters of doomsday scenarios, it will fall to the Department of the Homeland Security, not the medical establishment, to manage the crisis, according to federal documents and interviews with government officials.

The DHS lead role, however, seems at odds with operational plans that call for the Department of Health and Human Services to be the government’s go-to agency in such a crisis.

According to current documents outlining operational plans for public health and medical emergencies, HHS “is the primary Federal Agency responsible for public health and medical emergency planning, preparations, response, and recovery.”

That HHS planning document, currently under revision and circulating among federal agencies for comment, seemingly conflicts with the federal National Response Plan, a kind of overarching playbook for how to manage any number of national disasters, from terrorist events to hurricanes and floods. But under the National Response Plan, which also plans for actions in case of pandemics, DHS assumes top authority when an “incident of national significance” is declared.

Officials from DHS and HHS told MSNBC.com that the departmental statements outlining the chain of authority aren’t in conflict at all.

An influenza pandemic “would obviously be declared an ‘incident of national significance and DHS would be the overall in-charge agency,” said Brian Doyle, a DHS spokesman.

Doyle noted the “unique partnership” his agency has with HHS. “HHS would be the lead agency on the health side of it,” he said, echoing comments made by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff in late August.

The first such “incident of national significance” was declared in August after Hurricane Katrina hit; however, federal coordination among agencies and state and local governments broke down on so many levels that even President Bush was forced to acknowledge that the plan was flawed.

In the event of a flu pandemic, “the way it works is that DHS is going to turn to [HHS] to work with the states and the locals on the actual health and medical response to what’s going on,” said Mark Wolfson, an HHS spokesman.

“In the meantime, if we’re dealing with a pandemic situation, where we’ve got people getting sick all over the country and all over the world, then what Homeland Security is going to be doing is coordinating the overall federal response to implications of the pandemic,” he said.


Role playing the pandemic

Federal officials have been role playing different flu outbreak scenarios for the past several months and the results have lead to revisions in the current plan, which was drafted last year.

Last year’s plan called for closing of schools, restricting travel and implementing textbook, lock-down quarantine measures. Those extreme measures jumped into the spotlight last week when President Bush suggested that federal military troops — not just the National Guard — may have to be called in to enforce a quarantine.

DHS officials privately acknowledge that any such forced quarantine could swiftly turn violent, with people rioting to get away from a perceived diseased area.

“If you quarantine it’s going to get ugly really quick, I’m afraid,” said a DHS official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, saying he was not authorized to talk about internal planning discussions.

It’s just that potential for chaos that has the administration examining the steps needed to allow the President to put federal troops in charge of the situation.

“These are all issues that we need to look at, and that's why [President Bush] thinks there needs to be a robust discussion with Congress and do we need to establish some sort of trigger that would automatically say the federal government, and specifically, the military, is the one that will be in charge of stabilizing the situation,” said White House Spokesman Scott McClellan during a Sept. 26th press conference. “And then the Department of Homeland Security would come back into play once the situation is stabilized,” McClellan said.

Some medical experts aren’t sold on the military’s hinted role in a pandemic. “One of the issues is that the current influenza pandemic plan is supposed to carry a large military role, the problem there is I’m not sure how much the military has, at this point, been involved with [dealing with pandemics],” said Dr. Stephen Morris, an epidemiologist, the National Center for Disaster Preparedness and founder of the Center for Public Health Preparedness.

Morris, however, isn’t bothered by the dual responsibility roles laid out by DHS and HHS officials. “So the reality is, once [the Federal government] kicks into action I think, yes, there are obviously roles for both of those agencies,” Morris said. “HHS does have the lead in the medical aspect…There are obviously a lot of non-medical things that will have to be done in terms of traffic control, logistics and I’m sure there will be a role for the Department of Homeland Security, so I agree it’s not mutually exclusive.”

Who’s on first?

It’s one thing to put down on paper how an agency will respond in case a pandemic hits; it’s a whole other matter to draft a plan detailing what agency will literally keep the trains running, the mail flowing and lights turned on.

The worst case mortality figures contained in the government’s current draft plan for dealing with a pandemic are 1.9 million fatalities, according an expert who has reviewed the plans. The best case scenario is 200,000 dead.

“How do you provide food, water ... basic security for the population?” asked Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, a government adviser who has a copy of the draft plan and described it for The Associated Press.

The plan makes it clear that the U.S. is woefully unprepared should a pandemic hit. All kinds of shortages are noted, everything from not enough vaccines to the seemingly mundane: special surgical masks to prevent infection.

Democrats have criticized the administration for not having a plan. Sen. Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat, said in a statement Saturday that time for action was short.

“Having a plan on paper does nothing to protect us,” Harkin said while urging the administration to work with Congress on implementing protections against a pandemic. “Next month is too late. The United States is woefully unprepared for this, and we must get started immediately.”

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

© 2005 MSNBC Interactive

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9654456/

[NYer]

Let's take care of a more immediate need first ...

Shortages Again for Flu Shots While Supply Is Better Than Last Year,
There are Scattered Concerns in All 50 States
By JANE SPENCER and BETSY MCKAY
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 11, 2005; Page D1


As fears mount about an avian-flu pandemic, some public-health officials are expressing concern about a more immediate threat: spot shortages of flu shots to fend off the run-of-the-mill winter flu.

Since last fall, when a nationwide vaccine shortage triggered panic and led to flu-shot rationing, federal officials have been working to stabilize the nation's vaccine supply. But as this year's flu season gets under way, some physicians and local health departments are once again reporting that they haven't received enough vaccine.

A survey conducted last week by the National Association of County & City Health Officials turned up vaccine-supply concerns in all 50 states. In western Connecticut, officials have canceled a dozen flu-shot sessions scheduled for October because of inadequate supplies. In Pennsylvania, family physicians are still waiting for flu-shot orders placed in April to arrive. In Milwaukee, the health department says it doesn't have enough vaccine available to inoculate the city's homebound elderly population, for which the flu is particularly dangerous.

Some local public-health officials are also concerned that large private companies may be getting priority in the vaccine-distribution process. Many of the nation's larger providers of flu shots, such as Maxim Health Systems, which runs flu-shot clinics in retail stores and offices, say their supplies are adequate to begin running clinics. Flu-shot clinics have already launched in dozens of retail chains around the country, such as Walgreens, Safeway and CVS.

Flu shots offer protection against the most common strains of basic winter flu but don't shield people from the deadly avian flu, a new threat for which a vaccine is currently being developed and tested. The avian strain has proved fatal in 60 of the 117 cases that have been diagnosed so far in Asia, according to the World Health Organization, and has sparked fears of a global pandemic. (See related story.)

Though not nearly as dangerous as the avian-flu strain, the regular winter flu causes about 36,000 deaths a year in the U.S. -- mostly in elderly people -- according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and costs more than $10 billion a year in lost productivity, by some estimates.

The CDC says that flu-shot supplies will prove more than adequate as the season unfolds. Between 71 million and 97 million doses are expected to reach the U.S. market, according to the CDC, which could be a record amount at the higher end. But local health officials say the early supply problems are still worrisome, since it is crucial that people at high risk get inoculated early in the season. People generally lose interest in getting flu shots after December, which means vaccine shipped late in the season often goes to waste.

That is what happened last year after contamination problems at a United Kingdom plant operated by a major vaccine maker, Chiron Corp., crippled the U.S. supply. The company had to destroy more than 45 million doses of vaccine, cutting the total U.S. supply of shots in half and leading the CDC to ration flu shots to high-priority patients -- such as the elderly, people with chronic illnesses and infants -- early in the season. The U.S. government procured a few million extra doses later in the flu season, but many of them went unused.

Chiron is trying to re-enter the U.S. market this year and provide between 18 million and 26 million doses of flu vaccine. But the Food and Drug Administration, which tests vaccines in batches, has yet to approve any of Chiron's vaccine for distribution -- and that is contributing to the current supply problems. Chiron say it expects the approval to come in the next few weeks, but doctors who ordered supplies through the company or its distributors are still awaiting shipments.

In the meantime, the CDC is taking the routine precaution of recommending that flu-shot supplies be given only to high-priority individuals until Oct. 24, by which time it says supplies should be more plentiful. After the 24th, it is recommending flu shots for all healthy adults and children who want to reduce their chance of contracting flu.

The perceived disparities in how existing supplies are being distributed are generating frustration. Local health departments, which typically focus on inoculating high-risk populations, say it is unfair that some commercial suppliers appear to have had their orders filled more quickly. Some primary-care physicians, who administer most flu shots, are also frustrated. "How come all these large corporations have it before the family doctors?" says Dr. Joseph Blasiol of Topton, Pa., who hasn't been able to obtain enough vaccine for his patients. "If there's no shortage, then tell me where to get it."

The supply concerns reflect the complex nature of the nation's vaccine industry and can't be traced to any single factor. Currently, there are just four manufacturers that supply the entire U.S. market with flu vaccine: Chiron, Sanofi-Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline PLC and MedImmune Inc. Since Chiron hasn't shipped any vaccine yet this year, much of the burden for supplying the U.S. market early in the season has fallen to Sanofi-Aventis, the nation's largest flu-vaccine provider, which has pledged to supply about 60 million doses this year. But the company can't keep up with demand. "Frankly, we can't supply the entire nation," says Len Lavenda, a spokesperson for Sanofi-Pasteur, the company's vaccine unit. "There are always going to be providers who are unable to get as much vaccine as they want from us -- or even any."

GlaxoSmithKline, which recently won FDA approval to provide flu vaccine to the U.S. market, plans to supply about eight million doses; it has already shipped about five million. MedImmune is supplying three million doses of a nasal-spray vaccine, which contains live vaccine and therefore is approved for use only by healthy children and adults under 49 years old.

Vaccines are complex pharmaceutical products to make and distribute. Flu shots offer protection against the three strains of influenza that public-health experts deem to be most common, and must be reformulated each year as flu viruses evolve. This year, the shot includes immunity from the H3N2 and H1N1 strains of influenza A and one influenza-B strain.

To ensure the existing vaccine supplies are distributed as equitably as possible, the CDC has been working with companies on a distribution plan. Sanofi-Pasteur has been shipping only partial orders of vaccine so that most of its customers got at least some for high-risk patients. But many local health departments say they have received between 10% and 30% of their orders from the company, while some larger customers, which buy in bulk, say they have received closer to 50% of their orders.

Local health officials have expressed concerns that some immunization clinics aren't following the CDC guidelines and are already offering flu vaccine to healthy adults. Some pharmacies offering flu shots, such as the Medicine Shoppe chain in Washington state, are placing ads in newspapers that don't mention the CDC guidelines. The company says its franchises are complying with the guidelines.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112899473540665177.html?mod=health_home_stories

[NYer]

Experts call for creating US bird flu czar

Last Updated: 2005-10-13 10:38:12 -0400 (Reuters Health)

By Maggie Fox

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States needs a top official, backed by authority and cash, to prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic, experts said on Wednesday.

But the United States, and most other countries, are so badly behind in preparing for disease outbreaks in general that it will take years to catch up, they told a briefing of Congressional staffers.

"We need to make sure that in the federal government we have clear leadership," said Jeffrey Levi of the nonprofit Trust for Americas Health, which sponsored the briefing.

In the meantime, if H5N1 avian flu makes the jump from birds into humans, all that can be done is to minimize damage.

"This virus cannot now be eradicated from the planet," said Dr. Tara O'Toole, director of the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, based in Baltimore. "It is in too many birds in too many places."

The especially virulent H5N1 strain of avian influenza has been found in Asian flocks from Japan to Indonesia. It has been found in migrating waterfowl in Mongolia and Kazakhstan and officials in Turkey fear it has spread there, although test results are pending.

The virus has infected 117 people in four countries, killing 60, and is steadily mutating. Experts say it is only a matter of time before bird flu changes enough to make it a disease that transmits easily from human to human.

O'Toole said other "pressing issues" should be put aside while preparations for a pandemic are dealt with. "This is a special situation and calls for special organizational measures," she said.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is due to release its pandemic influenza plan any time now, but leaked versions suggest little has been done to prepare a creaky public health system for a devastating outbreak of disease.

Levi said the plan should provide details of how to fund each step. "We are going to need some serious money for us to implement a really good plan for us to be prepared," he said.

Levi and O'Toole called for public health professionals to staff a new federal office, with expertise in vaccines, drug development and communicating to the public.

At the very least, the experts told the briefing, the United States needs to begin stockpiling antiviral drugs and speed up work on new, quicker ways to make flu vaccine.

But there is only a limited supply of the two drugs known to work against H5N1 avian flu -- Gilead and Roche's oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and GlaxoSmithKline's zanamivir (Relenza).

Hospitals, already at capacity, will be unable to cope with any surge in patient numbers.

O'Toole said the federal government needs to know who is infected and where and what equipment and supplies are available. Hospitals need to be prepared to care for the sick.

"We will need to protect the well," she added.

President George W. Bush has called for special measures to use the military to enforce quarantines, and the Pentagon said on Wednesday it was looking at possible scenarios. But the experts said quarantines will not provide much help.

"Quarantines are not going to work in containing influenza," O'Toole said. "Even if it was possible to cordon off a city...that is not going to contain influenza."

People become contagious before they even begin to feel sick or show symptoms, and remain contagious long after they feel well. This is called "shedding virus" and it is one reason all types of influenza are so difficult to fight.

http://www.reutershealth.com/en/index.html

Somehow, I don't think this is what they had in mind ...

http://www.pe.com/imagesdaily/2005/03-23/snl_trump_300.jpg

[al-Canine]

Somehow, I don't think this is what they had in mind ...

http://www.pe.com/imagesdaily/2005/03-23/snl_trump_300.jpg

Well, if ANYONE could protect us from this scourge, it would be the Donald! He's a can-do fellow, and he is notoriously paranoid about germs... he doesn't even shake hands!


Bring him on!! DON-ALD! DON-ALD! DON-ALD!

[NYer]

Romania ...

Tests Confirm Deadly Bird Flu in Romania

Oct 15, 10:19 AM (ET)

By ALISON MUTLER



BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) - Tests have confirmed a link between the bird flu found in Romania and the deadly virus that has devastated flocks in Asia and turned up in Turkey, the European Commission said Saturday.

The announcement came after Romania's agriculture ministry said the flu detected in wild birds found dead in the Danube delta was the H5N1 strain.

"Tests confirmed that the virus in Romania was an H5N1 strain, but further tests were required to confirm the link with the strain found in Asia and Turkey," the European Union's executive body said in a statement. "This link has now been confirmed."

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20051015/D8D8H0780.html

[al-Canine]

The Fear Contagion

A Flu Quarantine? No, Sir

By Wendy Orent

For two years, a deadly strain of chicken flu known as H5N1 has been killing birds in Asia. While slightly more than 100 people are known to have contracted the disease, and 60 of them have died, there is still no sign that the flu has begun to spread from person to person.

That hasn't prevented a recent outbreak of apocalyptic warnings from health officials and experts about the specter of a worldwide pandemic. In Hurricane Katrina's wake, health officials in the United States are talking more and more about pandemic preparation. Some of these ideas -- such as stockpiling vaccines -- are sensible, whether or not bird flu turns into a human disease and begins to spread rapidly.

But other ideas aren't. A few scientists have suggested "priming" people with a dose of the new vaccine against H5N1 before we even know whether a pandemic is coming. Vaccinating large numbers of people against a disease that may never appear carries its own risks. Remember the swine flu debacle of 1976? At least 25 people died from vaccine complications and no epidemic ever erupted. That should be warning enough.

Another dangerous idea for pandemic preparation has come from President Bush. Earlier this month, he suggested using the military to enforce a quarantine. "Who best to be able to effect a quarantine?" he asked rhetorically at a press conference. "One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move."

The very term quarantine can be misunderstood (not to mention the military's role). Did the president mean gathering those exposed to flu in a single location and forcing them to stay there? Did he mean isolating them in their homes? Cordoning off whole communities where cases crop up? Not all quarantines are alike; each carries its own risks and benefits.

If this were idle presidential speculation, it wouldn't be worrisome. But he isn't the only one talking about quarantines and calling in the troops. In an Oct. 5 interview on "The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer," Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, also wondered whether the government would need to turn to "containment" or "quarantine the people who are exposed." She too remarked that the military or the National Guard might be summoned "to maintain civil order, in the context of scarce resources or an overwhelming epidemic. . . . It would be foolish not to at least consider it and plan for that as a possibility."

This is an example of a cure that is as frightening as the disease. It is hard to imagine how the military would oversee a quarantined area. If a health worker, drug addict or teenager attempted to break the quarantine, what would soldiers do? Shoot on sight? Teenagers and health workers were the people who most often violated quarantine rules in Toronto during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) scare in 2003. Moreover, the use of a quarantine to control a flu pandemic isn't only a potential threat to life and civil liberties; it's also a waste of money, resources and time. The reason: There isn't any kind of quarantine that will do any good -- at least not for a pandemic influenza.

Quarantine, from the Italian "quarantina," which means "space of 40 days," dates from 15th-century regulations devised in certain Italian cities to control the spread of plague by sequestering those thought to have been exposed to the disease. Along with isolation -- secluding those who are clearly sick -- it can be an effective tool for controlling outbreaks of certain types of disease. In 1910 and 1920, before antibiotics, plague experts in Manchuria controlled several deadly outbreaks of pneumonic plague using quarantine and isolation alone. But pneumonic plague, now rare, spreads in a very different way than flu does. Pneumonic plague germs are coughed out in large droplets that quickly fall to the ground. If you are more than six feet away from a plague patient, you're unlikely to catch the disease. Also, plague patients are typically very ill before they can transmit the germ to others. "There is no disease more susceptible to quarantine than plague," wrote the physician Wu Lien-teh, who helped break the Manchurian epidemics.

Influenza is entirely different. The virus spreads explosively. Coughing, sneezing, or even speaking launches flu particles in an aerosol cloud of tiny droplets, which can drift in the air for some distance. Physician and flu researcher Edwin Kilbourne, who worked with flu patients during the pandemic of 1957-58, points out that people with flu may shed the virus even before they know they're sick -- not much, but enough to transmit the disease. Worse, some 10 to 20 percent of flu patients have subclinical infections; they never look sick at all. Yet they can still spread infection. Faced with a flu pandemic, you'd hardly know where the disease was coming from.

How can you quarantine a disease like that? According to Kilbourne, you can't. "I think it is totally unreasonable on the basis of every pandemic we've had," says Kilbourne. "Every earlier pandemic seeded in multiple foci at the same time. Quarantine simply will not work."

Indeed, a strictly enforced quarantine could do more harm than good. Herding large numbers of possibly infected people together makes it likely that any influenza strain passed among them would actually increase in virulence. Usually, in order to spread, human flu germs need hosts mobile enough to walk around and sneeze on other people. Those flu strains so deadly that they kill or disable their hosts won't get the chance to spread and will die off. This keeps human flu virulence within bounds.

The signal exception is the 1918 flu, which acquired its extreme lethality, according to University of Louisville evolutionary biologist Paul W. Ewald, in the crowded and terrible conditions on the Western Front during World War I. Troops by the train and truckload were constantly being moved in and out of this petri dish, meaning a severely flu-stricken soldier didn't have to move much to infect others.

Suppose that a government official today decided to round up exposed people and move them to a space like the Superdome in New Orleans. It's unlikely that even a crowded Superdome could replicate the conditions on the Western Front. But, depending on how densely packed people were, you could expect the flu strain trapped among them to increase in virulence. You'd be breeding a deadlier flu.

If you let people walk around freely, only those strains mild enough to allow people to stay on their feet would spread easily.

If quarantine won't work, what would? What about medication? Kilbourne is not optimistic about the vaunted (and expensive) antiviral drug Tamiflu, which can be taken to prevent or treat flu. "The problem with antivirals is that they are untried on any mass basis," says Kilbourne. "How long are you going to keep people on antivirals? Also, we don't know about any side effects of the newer antivirals. Older antivirals cause neurological problems in older people."

Kilbourne thinks that preventive vaccines are our best, and only, strategy for combating a pandemic flu threat. The new vaccine, developed with National Institutes of Health sponsorship, shows some ability to protect. But Kilbourne, who in 1969 developed the first reassortant flu vaccine (one made by combining snippets of genetic material from different flu strains), isn't enthusiastic. First, the new vaccine must be given in two doses, at very high concentrations. And it's hard to grow. Kilbourne adds, "We don't have enough if a pandemic happened tomorrow."

Still, vaccination is the gold standard for pandemic preparation -- once we know that a contagious human disease is emerging and the risk of vaccination becomes less than the risk of disease.

That's a long way from now. Despite all the hysteria, there isn't a shred of evidence that a pandemic is actually on the way. Developing new flu vaccines is a useful thing to do. Pandemic or not, flu kills thousands every year. But devising quarantine plans is useless.

[i]Wendy Orent, an Atlanta-based writer, is the author of "Plague: The Mysterious Past and Terrifying Future of the World's Most Dangerous Disease" (Free Press).

© 2005 The Washington Post Company

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/15/AR2005101500102.html

[docj227]

if the government is so frightened of avian flu, then i would have to question why a) they don't have every research lab in the country working on a vaccine and/or an effective treatment. b) why every pharmaceutical company is not being forced to produce tamiflu and relenza until there are enough doses for the population. i realize that there are patent issues, as well as gear up time, but they didn't just find out about this yesterday. as usual, the government is either crying wolf or they are woefully unprepared.

[Atlas]

if the government is so frightened of avian flu, then i would have to question why a) they don't have every research lab in the country working on a vaccine and/or an effective treatment. b) why every pharmaceutical company is not being forced to produce tamiflu and relenza until there are enough doses for the population. i realize that there are patent issues, as well as gear up time, but they didn't just find out about this yesterday. as usual, the government is either crying wolf or they are woefully unprepared.

Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

Napoleon Bonaparte

[al-Canine]

Oh great, just what we need... the politicization of a pandemic.

MSNBC.com

Bird Flu: Top-Secret Briefings Short on Top-Secret Info?

Newsweek

Oct. 24, 2005 issue - Members of Congress are questioning why the Bush administration recently offered them confidential briefings about avian influenza. In meetings earlier this month in a secret room in the Capitol, representatives of the Health and Human Services Department and the intelligence community gave a "bird flu" presentation to congressional leaders and staffers that included at least one slide classified "top secret." But three officials familiar with the briefings, who asked for anonymity because the material is still classified, say the sessions contained little, if any, information those in attendance had not already heard from the media. The "top secret" element of the presentation, the officials say, was intelligence information raising questions about whether more than one foreign country was thoroughly monitoring, and disclosing the extent of, the spread of bird flu. But briefing attendees wondered whether the sessions were classified mainly to demonstrate to legislators that the administration was paying attention to the flu issue. A senior intelligence official, who makes public comments only when granted anonymity, maintained: "The briefings did contain classified information. The reason the information is classified is because some of it was acquired through clandestine means."


One bird-flu issue that U.S. agencies are monitoring is whether terrorists could use a bird-flu pandemic to cause mass casualties in America. Scientists recently reconstructed a live version of the deadly 1918 Spanish-flu virus; a U.S. official familiar with intel activities, who also asked not to be named because of the sensitive subject matter, says analysts were trying to keep tabs on whether terrorists could somehow duplicate this feat or otherwise exploit a flu outbreak. There is at present no evidence any terrorist group has tried to dabble in this form of bioterrorism. In case the bird-flu virus, which has been detected in East Asia and Eastern Europe, does spread farther, however, the administration is stepping up efforts to monitor visitors and residents coming into the Unites States from abroad. The Centers for Disease Control have expanded a corps of border-surveillance monitors to cover 18 U.S. airports, and preparations for a possible flu outbreak have also begun at the Homeland Security Department, say spokespeople for both agencies. U.S. intelligence agencies have also published a colorful brochure—labeled for official use only—advising public-health officials on what symptoms to look for in both humans and animals. A version of the brochure has been printed for distribution to foreign-government officials. But the version for foreigners differs from the U.S. version by omitting from its cover page logos for the various U.S. intel agencies—including the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and National Intelligence Council—which helped to prepare the booklet.

—Mark Hosenball

© 2005 Newsweek, Inc.

© 2005 MSNBC.com

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9711532/site/newsweek/

[NYer]

From Instapundit ...

S AVIAN FLU BEING OVERHYPED? Reader Patrick Cunningham emails:

As a medical researcher, I want to make a gentle but sincere plea to the blogosphere to calm down this flu hysteria just a bit. The main way that flu kills is by predisposing its victims to "superinfection" by bacterial illnesses - in 1918, we had no antibiotics for these superimposed infections, but now we have plenty. Such superinfections, and the transmittal of flu itself, were aided tremendously by the crowded conditions and poor sanitation of the early 20th century - these are currently vastly improved as well. Flu hits the elderly the hardest, but the "elderly" today are healthier, stronger, and better nourished than ever before. Our medical infrastructure is vastly better off, ranging from simple things like oxygen and sterile i.v. fluids, not readily available in 1918, to complex technologies such as respirators and dialysis. Should we be concerned? Sure, better safe than sorry, and concerns about publishing the sequence are worth discussing. Should we panic? No - my apologies to the fearmongers, but we will never see another 1918.

Patrick Cunningham M.D.
Assistant Professor of Medicine
Section of Nephrology
University of Chicago

I certainly hope that this is right. I do seem to remember seeing a study some years ago suggesting that many of those who died from the 1918 flu really died because inactive cases of TB reactivated under the stress of the flu infection. Far fewer people harbor inactive TB, in the U.S. at least, than did back then -- though in less developed countries I suspect the toll could be very high. However, as I've said repeatedly, much of the avian-flu preparation is also relevant to other possible pandemics, which might be even more dangerous.
posted at 01:30 PM by Glenn Reynolds Permalink
www.instapundit.com

[NYer]

And in case Avian Flu isn't being overhyped ( see previous post), a visit to your local Korean Grocery is in order. ( I Love NY!)

Kimchi Effective in Fighting Bird Flu
The Korea Times ^ | 10-12-2005 17:29 | By Lee Hyo-sik


A local animal feed manufacturer shipped a feed additive that may be effective in treating bird flu to Indonesia last week amid growing international concern over the spread of the virus.

``A veterinarian at an Indonesian zoo asked us to send our animal feed additive, which contains the bacteria leuconostoc citreum, a type of lactobacillus found in kimchi,’’ said Lee Jong-Dae, president of Celltech International.

``We shipped some 800 kilograms of the additive last week.’’

Lee added that if it is proven effective in treating chickens, ducks and other birds infected with bird flu virus there, the company will sign formal export contracts with Indonesia and expand its export market into other Asian countries grappling with bird flu outbreaks.

``We are sure that the additive will work in treating fowls with the avian influenza as our tests have shown that local chickens that were fed the additive had a much stronger immune system against a wide array of viruses compared to ones that it was not given to,’’ he said.

Seoul National University professor Kang Sa-ouk and his research team extracted leuconostoc citreum and eight other lactobacillus from kimchi.

Professor Kang and Celltech International launched a joint project to develop anti-virus and anti-bacteria animal feed additives by using kimchi lactobacillus.

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200510/kt2005101217270011950.htm

[Infidel]

I am on this trial in Adelaide - I had my shot on Friday - only side effect so far is a sore arm, slight fever and occasional headache. CMAX, which is conducting the trial, is looking for more volunteers but trial ends on 24 October.

[NYer]

I am on this trial in Adelaide - I had my shot on Friday - only side effect so far is a sore arm, slight fever and occasional headache. CMAX, which is conducting the trial, is looking for more volunteers but trial ends on 24 October.

Tip of the Mets Cap to You ...

[al-Canine]

Indonesia Neglected Bird Flu Until Too Late, Experts Say

By Alan Sipress
Washington Post Foreign Service

JAKARTA, Indonesia, Oct. 19 -- Indonesian officials covered up and then neglected a spreading bird flu epidemic for two years until it began to sicken humans this summer, posing a grave threat to people well beyond the country's borders, according to Indonesian and international health experts.

Unlike Southeast Asian countries that began to see human cases almost as soon as avian influenza was identified in their poultry, Indonesia had a generous head start to prevent an outbreak among people. But since July, it has registered more human cases than any other country, including three deaths confirmed by international testing. Influenza specialists agree that the actual number of human cases is higher and expect it to rise with the approach of the rainy season.

Health experts say the Indonesian epidemic started in commercial poultry farms, spread among the tens of millions of free-range chickens raised in back yards across the country and then finally infected people. At each step, the Indonesian government failed to take measures that could have broken the chain, while discouraging research into the outbreak.

As a result, specialists are concerned that the cases in Indonesia pose a worldwide threat if the bird flu virus changes and becomes contagious among humans.

"If the government had acted sooner to stamp it out, there would be no outbreak. They have wasted so much time," said Chairul A. Nidom, an Indonesian microbiologist who first identified the virus in this country's birds. "What terrifies me is that it just won't affect Indonesia."

In recent days, the virus has killed birds in Turkey, Romania and possibly Greece, for the first time presenting a danger to European poultry. Russia on Wednesday reported that preliminary tests, conducted after hundreds of birds died south of Moscow, showed the presence of the virus, according to news services. And China reported a fresh outbreak of bird flu in its northern grasslands, where 2,600 birds have died of the disease.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warned that the chances were increased that avian flu would move to the Middle East and Africa.

Health experts stress, however, that a human pandemic is still most likely to erupt in East Asia. Bird flu is already deeply entrenched among Asian poultry. Moreover, many countries in the region lack both basic agricultural safeguards to prevent the disease from spreading to humans and health care systems able to contain the virus if it does.

Since 2003, at least 60 people in Southeast Asia have died of the illness. U.N. health officials warn the threat could multiply if bird flu develops into a form easily passed among humans, potentially setting off a plague killing tens of millions of people worldwide.

Indonesia, in particular, is a worry to U.N. and other international experts, partly because it has Southeast Asia's largest population of both people and poultry. The country also has an impoverished health care system that has deteriorated significantly since the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the weakening of central government authority following the 1998 ouster of the longtime dictator Suharto.

In an interview with The Washington Post this spring, Tri Satya Putri Naipospos, Indonesia's national director of animal health, first disclosed that officials had known chickens were dying from bird flu since the middle of 2003 but kept this secret until last year because of lobbying by the poultry industry. She also revealed that the government had not set aside any money this year to vaccinate poultry against the virus though officials had trumpeted this as the centerpiece of their strategy to contain the disease.

Naipospos repeated her allegations late last month, but this time in Indonesian in an interview with the influential local newspaper Kompas.

A day after the article was published, the Agriculture Ministry fired her.

U.N. officials complained that her dismissal had set back efforts to fight the virus, faulting the government for ousting what they call its most respected animal health expert at the height of a crisis.

Naipospos alleged that bird flu has never been a priority in the Agriculture Ministry. Until recent months, she added, the ministry was even unwilling to tap its $3 million emergency account to pay for disease control measures.

"They could not see the potential threat until there was an actual threat," she said in an interview with The Post last week. "I talked to the minister about it many times. He said a disease outbreak is not a national emergency, not a disaster."

Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said the Indonesian government considers bird flu a matter of great concern. Every morning, he said, he files a report with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on efforts to battle the disease.

"That means our attention is very high on how to address this problem," the minister said in an interview. "The thing is, we don't want to publicize too much about bird flu because of the effect on our farms. Prices have dropped very drastically."

Apriyantono said he fired Naipospos because he was not happy with her handling of bird flu and her working relationship with top ministry officials.

When the virus first appeared in Indonesia in the summer of 2003, government officials were divided over whether the sudden death of hens on a commercial farm on Java island was caused by bird flu or a less virulent ailment, Newcastle disease. Nidom, a professor at Indonesia's Airlangga University, was called in. Within two months, he said, his laboratory research had determined that the ailment was indeed bird flu and was genetically related to a strain found seven years earlier in southern China.

But the owners of major poultry companies, who have personal ties to senior Agriculture Ministry officials, insisted that any containment efforts be done secretly, Naipospos recalled. These eight farming conglomerates, which handle 60 percent of the country's poultry, feared that publicity would harm sales of chicken and eggs. Offering new details in her interview last week, Naipospos said owners even lobbied Indonesia's president at the time, Megawati Sukarnoputri.

"They said, 'It's better to do it with confidentiality. Do a hidden, silent operation,' " Naipospos recounted. "I said, 'It won't work if you do a silent operation. This is a disease that can't be hidden. It's too risky.' "

In late January 2004, Nidom broke ranks and announced his findings to the Indonesian news media. A day later, the Agriculture Ministry confirmed the bird flu outbreak. But already the disease had spread across Java and on to Bali and Sumatra islands.

"It was too late. The virus was everywhere," Nidom recalled.

Last fall, with human cases mounting in Vietnam and Thailand, Nidom was growing increasingly nervous about the prospect of the epidemic spreading to Indonesians. He arranged an October conference at his university to examine bird flu and invited four of the world's premier influenza researchers, from the United States, Japan, Hong Kong and mainland China.

Shortly before its scheduled start, a senior agriculture official contacted Yoes Prijatna Dachlan, the head of Nidom's institute, and demanded that foreign participants and all media be banned, Dachlan said. Dachlan, chairman of the university's Tropical Disease Center, said he rejected the conditions and canceled the gathering. Nidom said officials threatened to have police break it up if it proceeded.

Apriyantono said in the interview that he was unfamiliar with the incident but that Indonesia was open to foreign researchers.

Through this summer, avian flu continued to spread, often unreported, and containment efforts remained unfunded. The disease reached two-thirds of the country's provinces. Then in July, a father and two daughters in an affluent Jakarta suburb died of respiratory disease. The father tested positive as the country's first bird flu victim. Health investigators concluded that his daughters likely died of the same cause.

Responding to public anxiety, Apriyantono went on television to oversee the culling of several dozen pigs and ducks on a farm 10 miles away. But when the cameras left, the campaign stalled. Officials backed away from a vow to kill about 200 swine in the area. Thousands of chickens, identified by health experts as the leading suspects in the outbreak, escaped slaughter.

As suspected human cases mounted last month, government officials said they would take extraordinary measures. Apriyantono said he was changing course and would order a mass slaughter of poultry in any area declared highly infected.

But one month later, Apriyantono acknowledged that he has yet to define such an area. As a result, he has now directed that culling be limited to the specific property where an infection is detected and that neighboring birds be spared.

Special correspondent Yayu Yuniar contributed to this report.

© 2005 The Washington Post Company

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/19/AR2005101902147.html

[Klaus]

Current avian flu is even more dangerous than 1918 Spanish flu pandemic
10/19/2005 19:02
The H5N1 subtype flu virus can affect not only lungs but also other organs

Last week, two scientific editions, Science and Nature, reported about the successful achievement of American researchers who reconstructed the Spanish flu virus that caused the massive 1918 pandemic. The researchers made a sensational statement that the 1918 virus that killed as many as 50 million people was actually avian flu.

It is important that the avian flu, the predecessor of the Spanish flu virus, became lethal after 10 important mutations of its genes as a result of which the virus easily adapted to the human organism. As of today, researchers have already determined 5 important mutations in the genes of the H5N1 avian flu.



More........

http://english.pravda.ru/science/19/94/377/16332_flu.html

[al-Canine]

Well, it's good to see Big Pharma doing the right thing. Now, we just have to hope that enough of the drug can be manufactured in time for any possible epidemic.

Roche to allow generic versions of Tamiflu

Drug maker agrees to license antiviral medication to other companies

Reuters
Updated: 4:40 p.m. ET Oct. 20, 2005

WASHINGTON - Swiss drug maker Roche AG has agreed to meet with four generic manufacturers willing to increase production of Roche’s antiviral drug Tamiflu to prepare for the possibility of a bird flu pandemic, Sen. Charles Schumer said Thursday.

The companies are Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd..

“Roche has agreed to meet with these companies as soon as possible, as early as next week, and to meet with additional companies who might also be interested in making Tamiflu,” the New York Democrat said after meeting with George Abercrombie, chief executive of Roche North American Pharmaceuticals.

Roche said it would sublicense Tamiflu production to any company that can produce it in sufficient quantities, Schumer said.

“Within a few months, we will have much more Tamiflu available than if Roche produced it itself,” he said.

Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, is considered the first line of defense against the H5N1 avian flu virus that experts fear could spark a deadly, worldwide outbreak in people.

Governments are rushing to stockpile the treatment. Forty countries have placed orders with Roche, and the company has been under pressure to allow others to produce Tamiflu so demand can be met quickly.

Some countries, such as Argentina, have said they will produce their own version of Tamiflu.

Roche said in a statement it was “assessing the ability of other companies and partners to either produce or provide capabilities in Tamiflu production.”

“We want to be sure that they can produce substantial amounts of Tamiflu for pandemic use in a timely manner in accordance with appropriate quality specifications, safety and regulatory guidelines,” the company said.

Some experts have cautioned that it will be difficult for generic companies to manufacture Tamiflu.

The four generic makers, however, believe they could be producing the drug within a month with Roche’s cooperation, Schumer said.

The decision on which companies get the licenses will be made in consultation with the U.S. government, he said.

Barr spokeswoman Carol Cox said it was premature to say how many doses the company could make or how long it would take.

“We need to meet with (Roche). We need to see their manufacturing process,” she said.

Roche has donated 3 million courses of the drug to the World Health Organization, and a small amount to Romania, one of the countries where bird flu has been detected.

Sixty-seven people in Asia are known to have been killed by the H5N1 virus. Experts fear it will mutate into a form that can pass easily from person to person, sparking a worldwide pandemic.

Tamiflu is not a cure for the flu, but it can lessen symptoms if taken shortly after they first appear. Researchers warned last week that they have seen signs the avian flu virus is becoming resistant to the drug.

Roche is locked in a legal dispute with Gilead Sciences Inc., the company that invented Tamiflu, over the rights to the drug. Gilead is seeking to regain the rights to Tamiflu, which it sold to Roche, saying the Swiss company has failed to adequately promote the drug.

© 2005 MSNBC.com

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9763074/

[NYer]

Avian Flu Update (http://www.techcentralstation.com/birdflu/)

[experiencediz]

Parrot in UK dies of bird flu
Saturday, October 22, 2005; Posted: 5:29 a.m. EDT (09:29 GMT) +

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The British government says a parrot imported from Suriname that died in quarantine two days ago was infected with the "highly pathogenic" H5 strain of bird flu.

It is not yet known if the virus is the same as the deadly Asian H5N1 strain found in Romania, Turkey and western Russia, which in some cases has jumped from birds to humans in Southeast Asia.

Because the bird was in quarantine, the UK's disease-free status is still in place, said Debby Reynolds, the country's chief veterinary officer.

Suriname, which sits on South America's northeast coast, has not reported the lethal H5N1 strain, according to the World Organization for Animal Health.

The bird was one of 148 parrots and "soft bills" that arrived in the country on September 16 for display and for collectors. Another parrot also died, but she did not know the cause.

Dispelling concerns, Ron Cutler, a bird authority at the University of East London, said the finding shows the "British quarantine system is working effectively."

Meanwhile, the European Union says it is preparing to ban poultry imports from Croatia after the country detected bird flu in some dead swans. The wild swans tested positive for the H5 virus, but it was not yet known if it was the deadly H5N1 strain...Read More (http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/22/birdflu.main/index.html)

[American_Jihad]

Quarantined parrot dies of avian influenza in Great Britain
Category: Flu/Bird Flu/SARS News
Article Date: 22 Oct 2005

A parrot that was imported from Surinam, South America, died in the UK of avian influenza (bird flu) while in quarantine. All pets in the UK have to spend some time in quarantine before entering the country. A Dept of the Environment Food and Rural Affairs confirmed that the bird died of bird flu while in quarantine.

The parrot had arrived in September, 2005. It is not yet known whether the parrot had the lethal H5N1 strain of the virus.

As the bird was in quarantine, the general population of farmed birds are still free of bird flu in the UK.

148 parrots and soft bills from Surinam were in quarantine alongside some birds from Taiwan. During their whole time in quarantine they were held in a biosecure quarantine unit. All the birds have been culled.

The UK has the strictest quarantine laws in the world for imported animals and pets. An official said this incident demonstrated the importance and effectiveness of the UK's quarantine laws.

All staff who had come into contact with the birds have been given antiviral treatment and are free of bird flu.
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=32453

[Dajjal]

They were quick to kill all the other birds. Makes me wonder what is going to happen to both wild and pet birds in the UK if things get bad.

[American_Jihad]

The reason I post it , they came from south
america. Thats close to home. What if this
starts coming into the US via illegal aliens?

[Catwoman]

Oh shit!

[Catwoman]

The reason I post it , they came from south
america. Thats close to home. What if this
starts coming into the US via illegal aliens?
Hence my response.

[American_Jihad]

and i have not seen anything
on the MSM news yet.

[sidthereal]

The reason I post it , they came from south
america. Thats close to home. What if this
starts coming into the US via illegal aliens?
damn, i didnt realise it that way....
a new form of bio-terrorism.

[American_Jihad]

ya what goes around comes around,
it would wipe them out also. Not
that they would give a dam.

[al-Canine]

Run on antiviral drug worries physicians

Bird flu fears spur hoarding of Tamiflu

By David Brown

What fallout shelters were to worries about the Bomb, and duct tape and plastic sheeting were to fears of terrorism after Sept. 11, Tamiflu is starting to be for the specter of pandemic influenza.

Across the country, people appear to be building home stockpiles of the prescription antiviral medicine, according to reports by drugstores, pharmaceutical benefit managers and physicians.

The run on Tamiflu was apparently spurred by government warnings, here and abroad, that chances for a worldwide flu epidemic are rising, and by news that Southeast Asia's H5N1 bird flu -- the leading candidate for a pandemic -- is moving westward.

For more than a year, demand for the drug, known generically as oseltamivir, has been rising as more than three dozen countries began to lay in millions of doses for national stockpiles. Retail demand, however, took a sharp upturn last month. A five-day course of two pills a day costs $80 to $90.

Healthy patients seek medicine

The trend worries many physicians and public health experts because widespread home stockpiling could undermine international efforts to fight a flu pandemic. Some doctors are refusing their patients' requests except in special circumstances.

"I do know that I personally can't give everybody who wants Tamiflu a prescription for it. It just doesn't seem right to me," said Harry Oken, 51, an internist in Columbia. "If there really was an avian flu epidemic, people who don't need it have it, and people who really need it can't get it."

Oken said he and his four partners at Charter Internal Medicine are each getting one or two calls a week from patients seeking the medicine. They have agreed not to prescribe it for home stockpiles.

"Last week a patient of mine called about having Tamiflu on hand, and I must have been on the phone with him for 20 minutes. He wanted four prescriptions. We went back and forth on all the issues, and he finally asked, 'Well, what would you do?' "

"I told him, 'Well, I'm not writing it for my family,'" Oken said. He knows that some doctors are keeping a supply for their own use but believes "that's not right, either."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Infectious Diseases Society of America are each drawing up advice to practitioners on the issue of home stockpiles, spokesmen said this week. With no vaccine available yet, an abundant supply of Tamiflu is one of the few weapons public health agencies could wield to try to stop an emerging pandemic. Mathematical models published this summer by two research teams concluded that spread of a contagious new strain of influenza virus could be slowed or even stopped by widespread use of Tamiflu at the outbreak site. Other experts, however, think that even with unlimited quantities of the drug, this is unrealistic.


Bird flu hard to catch

Human infections with the H5N1 strains are extremely rare -- but frequently fatal. Since late 2003, 118 people have contracted the disease and 61 have died. The most recent was a 48-year-old Thai man who died Wednesday. During the same period, 140 million domestic birds, mostly chickens, have been killed or culled in efforts to halt the spread of the virus.

H5N1 is transmitted easily among birds but is not easily passed between people -- and may never develop that capacity.

Tamiflu is taken once a day to prevent influenza or twice a day to lessen symptoms once infection has occurred.

Ironically, the drug's surging popularity comes as new research suggests that some of the H5N1 strains that have infected human beings are so virulent that conventional doses may not be effective. How the drug should be used in a pandemic -- or whether it would even work -- is uncertain.


Will medicine be where it’s needed?

Although some doctors in the Washington area are writing stockpile prescriptions for Tamiflu, they are reluctant to talk about it. Queries to 15 practitioners found none who said they prescribed the drug without a specific need.

Audrey P. Corson, a physician in Bethesda who has practiced for 20 years, agreed that "this is a tough issue." She said she firmly believes, however, "that you don't give out drugs without a sick patient." Her only exceptions have been for two or three patients traveling to Southeast Asia, where all 118 human cases of H5N1 influenza infection have occurred. She thinks practitioners should consider both public health and patients' desires when confronted with the requests.

"If there is an outbreak, we're going to have to rely on the CDC and state governments to put those drugs where we need them. And I don't want them in people's bathrooms," she said.

Tamiflu orders ‘spike’

Nevertheless, retail pharmacies and pharmacy benefit managers have noticed the rising demand.

Express Scripts, which handles prescriptions for more than 50 million people, has seen "a spike" in orders for Tamiflu, said Raulo Frear, vice president for clinical evaluation and policy. The St. Louis-based company, whose clients include 16,000 private employers, labor unions, HMOs and government agencies, typically sees prescriptions for the drug rise in early fall. Many doctors prescribe a course of treatment for high-risk patients to have on hand once flu season begins.

Last year, Frear said, Tamiflu prescriptions rose for about a month starting in late September, then plateaued for more than two months before rising again when flu season began after the new year. This year, the rise began in early September and has not yet peaked.

From January through August, about 1.7 million prescriptions for Tamiflu were filled in the United States -- more than three times the 2004 total of 497,000 prescriptions according to IMS Health, a pharmaceutical information and consulting company.

The pharmacies in the 165 Giant Food stores in the Baltimore-Washington area have filled about 1,000 prescriptions for Tamiflu in the past three weeks, 10 times as many as in the same period last year.

"We're not in the flu season by any stretch of the imagination, so it appears to be some stockpiling. I don't know what other reason there would be for it," said Russell B. Fair, Giant's vice president for pharmacy operations.

Terence J. Hurley, a spokesman for Roche, the giant Swiss pharmaceutical house that makes Tamiflu, confirmed that "prescriptions are up considerably compared to last year at this time." Specific numbers were not available.

Manufacturer may let others make drug

Roche is the only maker of Tamiflu, which takes more than six months to synthesize in a complicated and dangerous manufacturing process. The company said this week it is in discussions with four makers of generic drugs over possibly letting them produce Tamiflu, too.

Roche will soon start making the drug in the United States in an operation that involves six factories, the last approved for use on Monday by the Food and Drug Administration. Previously, Tamiflu was made only in Europe.

Hurley said about 40 countries have ordered Tamiflu, and the company expects to sell up to $270 million worth for national stockpiles in the second half of this year.

How many people those stockpiles could treat is a big question mark, however.

Experiments published in August by Hui-ling Yen, Elena A. Govorkova and others at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis found that Tamiflu was much less useful against recent strains of H5N1 than it was against strains that circulated in Hong Kong in 1997.

Mice infected with a fatal strain of the virus circulating in Vietnam were given a five-day course of oseltamivir at amounts roughly equivalent to a human dose. Half died. In previous experiments, treated animals infected with the Hong Kong strain all survived. But when mice with the Vietnam virus were treated for a longer period -- eight days -- 80 percent survived.

© 2005 The Washington Post Company

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9779471/page/2/

[pixikill]

the fucking canadians sent us some pigeons with bird flu antibodies. the canadians had "screened" them, in their quarranteen, or so they say, but when they got to aus., they were discovered as being carriers!
what is canada doing??? do they have a 'plan', to kill off the rest of the world????

[al-Canine]

A Threat Worse Than Terror

The government can't even give intelligent advice to its citizens.

By Fareed Zakaria
Newsweek

Oct. 31, 2005 issue - A flu pandemic is the most dangerous threat the United States faces today," says Richard Falkenrath, who until recently served in the Bush administration as deputy Homeland Security adviser. "It's a bigger threat than terrorism. In fact it's bigger than anything I dealt with when I was in government." One makes a threat assessment on the basis of two factors: the probability of the event, and the loss of life if it happened. On both counts, a pandemic ranks higher than a major terror attack, even one involving weapons of mass destruction. A crude nuclear device would probably kill hundreds of thousands. A flu pandemic could easily kill millions.

Whether this particular virus makes the final, fatal mutation that allows it to move from human to human, one day some virus will. The basic factor that is fueling this surge of viruses is China's growth. (China is the natural habitat of the influenza virus.) As China develops, it urbanizes, and its forests and wetlands shrink. That forces migratory birds to gather closer together—and closer to human habitation—which increases the chances of a virus spreading from one species to the next. Also, growth means a huge rise in chicken consumption. Across thousands of homes in China every day, chickens are slaughtered in highly unhygienic ways. "Every day the chances that this virus or another such virus will move from one species to another grow," says Laurie Garrett, author of "The Coming Plague," who has been writing brilliantly on this topic for years.

Nobody really disputes that we are badly unprepared for this threat. "If something like this pandemic were to happen today," says Falkenrath, "the government would be mostly an observer, not a manager." The government can't even give intelligent advice to its citizens because it doesn't actually know what to say. We don't know whether people should stay put, leave cities, stay home or go to the nearest hospital. During the cold war, hundreds of people in government participated in dozens of crisis simulations of nuclear wars, accidents and incidents. These "tabletop exercises" were conducted so that if and when a real crisis hit, policymakers would not be confronting critical decisions for the first time. No such expertise exists for today's deadliest threat.

Beyond short-term measures for this virus—mainly stocking up on Tamiflu—the only credible response is the development of countermeasures. The best response would be a general vaccine that would work against all strains of the flu. That's a tall order, but it could be achieved. The model of the Manhattan Project is often bandied about loosely, but this is a case in which it makes sense. We need a massive biomedical project aimed at tackling these kinds of diseases, whether they're natural or engineered by terrorists.

The total funding request for influenza-related research this year is about $119 million. To put this in perspective, we are spending well over $10 billion to research and develop ballistic-missile defenses, which protect us against an unlikely threat (even if they worked). We are spending $4.5 billion a year on R&D—drawings!—for the Pentagon's new joint strike fighter. Do we have our priorities right?

The final sense in which we are unprepared is that we have weak global organizations to deal with pandemics. The bird flu is a problem that began in Guangdong, China, and spread to Indonesia, Russia, Turkey, Romania and now possibly Iran. It may move next into Africa. Some of these governments are competent; others are not. Some hide information from everyone; others simply refuse to share it with the United States. We need a system that everyone will follow. The World Health Organization should become the global body that analyzes samples, monitors viruses, evaluates cures and keeps track of the best practices. Yet the WHO leads a hand-to-mouth existence, relying on the whims and grants of governments. A year ago its flu branch had five people. Now it has 12. It needs a much, much larger staff and its own set of laboratories around the world that would allow it to fulfill this clearinghouse function. Countries have finally agreed to a new set of conventions that give the U.N. and the WHO some of the authority they need. And Kofi Annan has appointed one person to coordinate the global efforts to fight pandemics.

Many people believed that globalization meant that government would become less important. But as we see, today's world has actually made government more crucial. Only government can tackle a problem like this one, not by being big but by being smart and effective. And we need good governance not just at home but beyond. Without effective international coordination, we are doomed to failure. John Bolton once said that you could chop off 10 floors of the United Nations and we'd all be better off. Let's hope that the scientists fighting global diseases aren't on any of those floors.

Write the author at comments@fareedzakaria.com.

© 2005 Newsweek, Inc.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9787690/site/newsweek/

[Atlas]

the fucking canadians sent us some pigeons with bird flu antibodies. the canadians had "screened" them, in their quarranteen, or so they say, but when they got to aus., they were discovered as being carriers!
what is canada doing??? do they have a 'plan', to kill off the rest of the world????

Every #$%^ time they get juiced up on that maple syrup, it's invade this, destroy that, conquer the other. They're polite, but evil

[Brat]

Bird flu death, spread shakes Asia

JAKARTA, Indonesia -- Indonesia said on Tuesday testing had confirmed that a man who died in September was positive for bird flu, raising the number of deaths from the virus in the country to four.

The announcement from Indonesia's Health Ministry came as China reported a fresh outbreak among geese in its eastern province of Anhui.

The latest victim, a 23-year-old from Bogor, West Java, was hospitalized in late September and died two days later, Hariadi Wibisono, a Ministry of Health official told The Associated Press on Tuesday. A Hong Kong lab confirmed the test results.

The lethal H5N1 strain that has decimated the bird industry in Asia and has reached Europe first surfaced in Hong Kong in 1997, before re-emerging in 2003 in South Korea. Since then it has spread to Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, China, Indonesia, Cambodia, Russia, Turkey and Romania.

While the bird flu has devastated the bird population, there have only been 121 cases where the flu has jumped to people since 2003. Of those, 62 have died, all after close contact with sick birds.

However experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that could be transmitted between humans, triggering a global pandemic.

As officials around the world scramble to get measures in place, China has told the United Nations that 2,100 geese were infected, news agencies reported on Tuesday.

More than 500 of the birds died and 45,000 were culled.

China last week reported another outbreak had emerged in the country's northern region of Inner Mongolia. Some 2,600 chickens and ducks were found dead at a breeding facility.

The Asian developments came as health ministers from around the world met in Canada to discuss how to tackle a possible pandemic. They emphasized that preventing the disease from mutating into a deadly human virus was as important as developing new vaccines against it.

Bans spread
On Monday, the European Union imposed a temporary ban on imports of live poultry, game and feathers from Croatia after at least six swans died from bird flu,

The swans landed in Croatia recently, but it is not known where they migrated from. Thirteen more swans have been found dead nearby.

EU officials also are considering a ban on imports of exotic birds after a parrot in Britain died in quarantine from the H5N1 strain.

Also Monday, Russia's Tambov region confirmed an outbreak of the same deadly bird flu strain, a senior regional animal health official said. The region is located 400 kilometers (250 miles) southeast of Moscow.

"Laboratory tests have confirmed the presence of the H5N1 strain ... in some dead fowl tissue samples," the official told Reuters.

He said the disease killed 12 hens at a dacha in Morshansk district last week, after which local veterinary authorities destroyed 53 ducks and hens remaining in the area, and imposed a quarantine on it.

Moscow confirmed last Wednesday an outbreak of H5N1 in the Tula region, some 200 kilometers south of the Russian capital.

Russia has been fighting bird flu since mid-July and has killed more than 600,000 domestic fowl.

Override Roche?
Because there is no vaccine for a bird flu should it mutate to spread between humans, several countries around the globe have started stockpiling the antiviral or treatment drug called Tamiflu in a bid to mitigate its effects.

The World Trade Organization in 2003 decided to allow governments to override patents during national health crises, though no member state has yet invoked the clause, AP reports.

India's government said it may consider whether to override Roche's patent protections and allow drug manufacturers to copy Tamiflu.

Meanwhile, India's western Gujarat state is gearing up to monitor for signs of the virus.

Field staff working in wetland sanctuaries have been instructed to keep an eye out for birds that appear ill.

Gujarat state has as many as 20 wetlands, considered major stopovers for migratory birds.


Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/condi...ain/index.html

[al-Canine]

Hoarding Prompts Halt in Flu Drug Shipping

By ANDREW POLLACK
Roche has temporarily halted shipments of the anti-influenza drug Tamiflu in the United States, saying it wants to prevent hoarding and ensure adequate supplies to treat conventional flu cases this winter.

Roche said companies had been creating their own stockpiles for use by their employees in the event of a pandemic caused by avian flu. That activity threatened to deplete supplies needed for the regular flu.

"At the present time, we do not have an avian influenza pandemic in the United States," George Abercrombie, president of the company's American subsidiary, said in a statement yesterday. "However, we need to make sure that people exposed to this year's seasonal flu virus will have access to Tamiflu."

Roche, which is based in Switzerland, said it would resume shipments of the drug when more flu cases occurred this winter.

The halt in shipments affects those to wholesalers and pharmacies but not those to the federal government for its stockpile.

Many nations are stockpiling Tamiflu as a first line of defense against a flu pandemic and Roche has been unable to keep up with demand. Under pressure, the company said last week that it would consider letting other companies make the drug.

The drug, also known as oseltamivir, can reduce the duration of conventional flu or prevent it. Scientists say it should also work, though perhaps not as well, against the avian flu that has killed more than 60 people in Asia.

But with the federal stockpile now able to cover only a few million people, individuals have been trying to get the drug on their own, as have "companies and other large entities," according to Roche, which would not identify any of them.

A spokesman said Roche was planning to supply twice as much Tamiflu for the seasonal flu this year as was used last year and did not anticipate a shortage.

Wholesalers and pharmacies now have enough for legitimate needs, he said. But in a letter to its wholesalers yesterday, Roche suggested that they might want to limit how much they provided to pharmacies to preserve their inventories until the beginning of flu season.

The number of prescriptions for Tamiflu in recent weeks has been up to 10 times more than in the same week last year, according to Verispan, a company in Yardley, Pa., that tracks prescriptions. Last week, there were 67,443 prescriptions for Tamiflu dispensed by retail pharmacies, Verispan estimated, nearly quadruple the 17,172 for the same week a year ago.

Drugstore.com, an online pharmacy, has sold more Tamiflu in the last month than it did in the last six months of 2004, said Greg French, a spokesman, adding that the numbers were "off the charts."

Since there has been no real outbreak of flu yet, it is believed that most of those prescriptions are for people who want to save the drug for use in the event of a pandemic.

Similar stockpiling is occurring abroad. Roche suspended shipments in Canada this week. There were also reports that Roche was limiting supplies in Switzerland and Germany, and that Sweden's government was limiting how much doctors could obtain.

Some infectious disease experts say that personal or corporate stockpiling could result in the drug's being wasted or used improperly, which would contribute to shortages in the future or allow the virus to become resistant to the medicine.

"They hear 'bird flu' on the radio and they'll take their Tamiflu that day," said Roger Baxter, an infectious disease specialist at Kaiser Permanente, which, he said, had stopped giving the drug to people who were not sick to save it for people who were.

Still, even infectious disease specialists are stockpiling. At a meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society of America this month in San Francisco, one speaker asked the audience how many had a supply of anti-influenza drugs at home. A fair number of hands, though clearly a minority, were raised.

He then asked how many were thinking of it. Most of the remaining hands went up.


Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/27/health/27flu.html

[The Beat]

This is a nonstory.

Less than 70 people have died of avian flu since 1997.

Over 30,000 just died from one friggin' earthquake. Over 40,000 die annually from other flu viruses. Why is the media harping on such an idiotic issue??

And the fact that Bush is harping on it proves my point.

There is NO pandemic

:add23:

[NYer]

"Top Dumb Guy Tips For Avoiding The Bird Flu":

Before eating chicken, soak it in Lysol;
Frighten birds by constantly meowing;
Stay away from basketball great Larry Bird;
Anti-bacterial smoothies;
Move to a place where there are no birds, like the moon;
Avoid birds that look like they're up to something;
Go back to the old Y2K bunker, start drinking;
Fill birdfeeder with Sucrets.

David Letterman

[al-Canine]

This is a nonstory.

Less than 70 people have died of avian flu since 1997.

Over 30,000 just died from one friggin' earthquake. Over 40,000 die annually from other flu viruses. Why is the media harping on such an idiotic issue??

And the fact that Bush is harping on it proves my point.

There is NO pandemic

:add23:

Hey, we ALL hope you are correct! But in the meantime, it doesn't hurt to stay current on the state of things. :)

[al-Canine]

Infection-Control Key to U.S. Flu Plan

By Lauran Neergaard
The Associated Press
Wednesday, November 2, 2005; 7:46 PM

WASHINGTON -- A flu pandemic that hits the United States would force cities to ration scarce drugs and vaccine and house the sick in hotels or schools when hospitals overflow, unprecedented federal plans say.

The Bush administration's long-awaited report Wednesday on battling a worldwide super-flu outbreak makes clear that old-fashioned infection-control will be key.

Signs that a super-flu is spreading among people anywhere in the world could prompt U.S. travel restrictions or other steps to contain the illness before it hits America's shores.

If that fails, the Pandemic Influenza Plan offers specific instructions to local health officials: The sick or the people caring for them should wear masks. People coughing must stay three feet away from others in doctors' waiting rooms. People should cancel nonessential doctor appointments and limit visits to the hospital.

A day after President Bush outlined his $7.1 billion strategy to prepare for the next pandemic, the details released Wednesday stress major steps that state and local authorities must begin taking now: Update quarantine laws. Work with utilities to keep the phones working and grocers to keep supplying food amid the certain panic. Determine when to close schools and limit public gatherings such as movies or religious services.

"This is a critical part of the plan," because states will be at the forefront of a battle that could have "5,000 fronts," said Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, who will work with governors in coming weeks to push local preparations. "Every community is different and requires a different approach."

Also Wednesday, the government for the first time told Americans not to hoard the anti-flu drug Tamiflu, because doing so will hurt federal efforts to stockpile enough to treat the sick who really need it. Tamiflu's maker recently suspended shipments of the drug to U.S. pharmacies because of concern about hoarding.

A key question is how much of the financial burden of preparing must be shouldered by cash-strapped states. Bush's plan provides $100 million to update state pandemic plans, but also requires states to spend about $510 million of their own money to buy enough Tamiflu for 31 million people to supplement the federal stockpile.

Some states might not be able to buy the drug, said Rep. Nita Lowey, D-N.Y.

"This is a national emergency. I believe very strongly it should not depend upon where you live as to what sort of protection you get," Lowey told Leavitt on Wednesday.

Lawmakers also grilled Leavitt _ who appeared before House and Senate health appropriations panels _ on why it took the administration more than a year to issue its plan.

"Could we have acted sooner to avoid the situation we are in now, in effect running for cover?" asked Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa.

Pandemics strike when the easy-to-mutate influenza virus shifts to a strain that people have never experienced before, something that happened three times in the last century.

It's impossible to predict when the next pandemic will strike, or its toll. But concern is rising that the Asian bird flu, called the H5N1 strain, might trigger one if it eventually starts spreading easily from person-to-person.

The new HHS pandemic plan outlines the worst-case scenario: If the next super-flu resembles the 1918 pandemic, up to a third of the population could get sick and 1.9 million Americans die.

The illness will spread fastest among school-aged children, infecting about 40 percent of them. At the outbreak's peak, about 10 percent of the work force will be absent because they're sick or caring for an ill loved one, wreaking economic chaos. Health costs alone could reach $181 billion.

A cornerstone of Bush's preparations is to modernize the vaccine industry, so that one day scientists could spot a novel influenza strain and quickly produce enough vaccine for everybody.

That, however, will take years.

So the administration is also beefing up attempts to detect and contain a brewing pandemic wherever it starts in the world _ with restrictions on international travelers attempting to enter the country as one potential step.

Here, HHS has the legal authority to order quarantines, if health officials think they would help stem infections. It's unclear how much quarantines would help fight influenza, as people can spread the virus a day before they experience symptoms, but the federal plan orders communities to get their own quarantine procedures in order just in case.

Also in the plan: Telling states how to prioritize who will get limited stockpiled doses of medication and vaccine.

The government wants to stockpile enough vaccine against today's version of the bird flu to treat 20 million people, with vaccine manufacturers, health workers and the medically frail first in line for shots.

It also plans to stockpile enough of the anti-flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza for 81 million people, provided states come up with their share _ enough for 31 million. Most of the drugs will be reserved for the sickest patients.

___

Associated Press Writer Kevin Freking contributed to this report.

On the Web:

Flu pandemic: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/02/AR2005110200349.html

[NYer]

BiondVax Bird flu shot on the way?

The start-up is developing a universal flu vaccine based on research by Prof. Ruth Arnon of Teva fame.
Gali Weinreb 27 Oct 05 11:11

BiondVax Pharmaceuticals is developing vaccines for all types of influenza, based on research by Prof. Ruth Arnon, the developer of Teva’s Copaxone drug for treating multiple sclerosis. The company has begun trails of its products for a number of types of avian flu. BiondVax hopes that, if avian flu develops into an epidemic, it will be ready with a relevant vaccine of proven effectiveness.

Current flu vaccinations are created by isolating the virus that causes flu, weakening it, and turning the weakened strain into a vaccine. The flu virus, however, undergoes many mutations, and changes rapidly. By the time a vaccine is produced, new and different types of flu virus may very well appear. BiondVax decided to take a different approach. The company first identified aspects in which most flu viruses were similar, then created a synthetic virus that attacks these aspects. Such a vaccine is expected to also be effective against flue strains not yet in existence.

The current avian flu virus can migrate from poultry to human beings, but one person cannot infect another, and therefore has not yet become an epidemic. It is feared that this virus will mutate into one that can also be transmitted from one person to another. BiondVax CEO Dr. Ron Babekof asserts that this is not an improbable scenario, because flu viruses are constantly mutating. A vaccine designed to protect against avian flu is already on the market, but it provides protection only against the current strain. There is no guarantee that the current vaccine will also be effective against the mutated avian flu epidemic.

"Globes": What stage have you reached in developing a universal flu vaccine?

Babekof: ”We’re now beginning human clinical trials. We’re building a facility where we can conduct them.”

Will you have to make a special investment to test the vaccine on avian flu?

”We’re already conducting trials on the dead virus. We’ll have to move to safer conditions for trials on the live virus, because the virus is very deadly. We need a special laboratory, and we’re in touch with the Israeli State Veterinary Services concerning a joint trial with them.

”We read in the newspapers that there are special grants for this, and we have already filed financial requests at the US National Institutes of Health. The approval procedure takes a long time, however, and we decided to begin trials before receiving their answer. We want to be sure that, if they need us, we’ll be ready in time.”

Is there a precedent for the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) shortening the approval procedure for drugs designed for treating deadly viruses?

”We’re not aware of a precedent for abbreviating procedures, and, of course, at this stage, when 60-80 people have died, there is no chance of this happening. At the same time, we believe that because of the fear aroused by the disease, bureaucratic doors will be opened to us, meaning that FDA representatives will agree to sit with us and discuss the structure of the trial, possibly ease their requirements regarding the facility where the trial will take place, and so forth. We also have no wish to shorten procedures designed to guarantee that the drug won’t hurt people.”

How soon will you be able to launch the vaccine?

”We’re planning to launch the universal vaccine in 3-5 years. If an epidemic occurs, we’ll of course redouble our efforts, and it will happen much faster.”

Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on October 27, 2005
http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000022707&fid=1724

[al-Canine]

The Tamiflu Tug of War

As bird flu panic spreads, demand for the influenza medicine—and the shares of its suppliers—is getting feverish. Among the beneficiaries: Donald Rumsfeld.

FORTUNE
By Nelson D. Schwartz

A year ago Tamiflu was known, if at all, as an obscure remedy for influenza, which doctors typically treat with bed rest and chicken soup. Today, with panic mounting over a potential bird flu pandemic, it's the most sought-after drug in the world, as everyone from suburban soccer moms in the U.S. to health officials in London and Taipei scramble to stockpile the pill. At the moment, it seems, virtually the entire world is on sick-chicken alert.

"One dead parrot in the U.K. and four dead ducks in Romania does not mean the pandemic has arrived," says William Burns, head of the pharmaceutical division of Roche, the Swiss company that manufactures Tamiflu. But the appearance in Europe of the H5N1 strain of bird flu—which has already infected 121 people in Asia, 62 fatally—has set off a stampede for the medicine and created a contagion of stock market speculation about Roche and the California biotech firm that first developed Tamiflu, Gilead Sciences. Despite worries about Tamiflu's effectiveness, the phenomenon is a reminder of just how quickly fear can spawn greed: The potential profit windfall for the drugmakers seems to be growing daily, and shares in both Roche and Gilead are surging.

Among the beneficiaries of the run on Tamiflu is Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who was chairman of Gilead from 1997 to 2001 and owns at least $5 million of the stock, which has jumped from $35 in April to $47. Former Secretary of State George Shultz, who is on Gilead's board, has sold more than $7 million worth of Gilead in 2005.

As the bird-flu issue heated up earlier this year, according to a senior Pentagon official, Rumsfeld considered unloading his entire Gilead stake to avoid any perceived conflict of interest. He sought the advice of the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the federal Office of Government Ethics. When those agencies didn't offer an opinion, Rumsfeld consulted a private securities lawyer, who advised him to hold on to the stock and be vocal about his earlier recusal from all matters involving Gilead, rather than sell and run the risk of being accused of insider trading. Holding on has paid off—it's made the Pentagon chief, already one of the wealthiest members of the Bush cabinet, at least $1 million richer. In late October, Rumsfeld had the Pentagon's general counsel issue instructions on what he could and could not do in the event of an epidemic.

Gilead developed Tamiflu on its own, then licensed it to Roche in 1996 to get help manufacturing and marketing it. But Gilead has complained for years that Roche wasn't aggressive on either front. In June, Gilead, which receives royalties equal to about 10% of Tamiflu sales, took the unusual step of terminating its licensing agreement with Roche and going into arbitration to win back exclusive rights to the drug.

Roche CEO Franz Humer rejects Gilead's claims that his company neglected Tamiflu. He points out that Roche has doubled Tamiflu production since last year, and will double it again next year. What's more, Humer is confident the two companies will come up with a compromise that leaves Tamiflu in Roche's hands. The most likely scenario would be that Roche simply coughs up more in royalties to Gilead. That prospect has Wall Street very excited. Analyst Sapna Srivastava of Morgan Stanley says she's been getting calls from brokers who want to know whether to buy Tamiflu, as well as shares of Gilead. "It's suddenly become a stock everyone knows and talks about."

And interest goes well beyond Wall Street. Already drugstores are finding demand for the drug, well, contagious. "We've got doctors getting it for their families, sometimes a double treatment," says pharmacist Joseph Damin of Spencer Pharmacy in Scarsdale, N.Y. In late October, Roche halted delivery of the drug to the U.S. and Canada, to prevent hoarding and make sure there's still some Tamiflu left when the normal flu bug arrives this winter.

While the soccer moms may be going overboard, the people who really should be worrying about the threat seem remarkably blasé. Although governments in Europe are buying enough Tamiflu to cover a quarter of their population—and the Pentagon has already ordered $58 million worth of Tamiflu for U.S. troops around the world—the U.S. government has purchased only 4.3 million doses of Tamiflu and another anti-viral, Glaxo's Relenza, enough for just 1.5% of Americans. Despite months of debate about an additional multibillion-dollar purchase, Congress and the White House haven't agreed on a final plan.

Making tons of Tamiflu isn't easy. The drug is derived from the pods of Chinese star anise plants in a yearlong process that is expensive and dangerous—at one stage the stuff is highly explosive. "It's not like you press the button in the morning and in the afternoon Tamiflu falls out," says Humer. "We don't yet have a firm order from Washington ... words are not enough."

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/print/0,15935,1124140,00.html

[NYer]

There are reports of increasing resistance (http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/13128991.htm) to Tamiflu.

More Bird Flu news can be found here. (http://www.thepoultrysite.com/LatestNews/?AREA=LatestNews&Display=6187)

[al-Canine]

Threat to Humans from Avian Flu Exaggerated, Veterinarians Say

By David Kassabian - A team of veterinarians cautioned Tuesday that exaggerated media and government reports of a deadly influenza pandemic triggered by the avian flu are causing needless public hysteria.

"We are very unlikely to get an avian flu strain that is infectious to humans," said Daniel Perez, an assistant professor at Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine. "The chances of getting hit by avian influenza from wild birds is the same as getting hit by a lightning bolt."

Perez, along with three other veterinary experts, said widespread prevention and detection methods are still integral in preventing an outbreak of the avian flu strain, also known as H5N1, which is currently infecting birds in Asia and Europe.

They spoke at a news conference sponsored by the Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine, which has three campuses in Virginia and Maryland.

A flu epidemic is unlikely this year, Perez said, but the continued detection of different bird flu strains is still important. Because a virus is highly pathogenic in one type of bird, like chickens, doesn't imply it will be infectious for other birds or humans, he said.

Tuesday's remarks by Perez and others come less than a week after officials from both the Department of Health and Human Services and the World Health Organization said separately that a human pandemic from avian flu is likely, if not this year then soon.

Another pandemic is virtually inevitable because of how fast the virus mutates, John M. Barry, author of the book "The Great Influenza," said last week during a Senate appropriations subcommittee hearing. He is also a visiting scholar at the Center for Bioenvironmental Research at Tulane and Xavier Universities.

"All influenza viruses originate as bird viruses, but their mutation rate allows them to jump species, from birds to humans, Barry told the committee. "The best-case scenario is bad enough to get the attention of any American."

Despite conflicting opinions about the likelihood of an outbreak, Tuesday's panelists endorsed President Bush's flu preparedness plan released last week.

"It's a good start," said C. Ed Hsu, assistant professor of public community and health at the University of Maryland. "It would be a good exercise for all kinds of pandemics that we would be dealing with in the future."

Avian flu is found in several different strains, and has affected the United States before, said Nathaniel Tablante, associate professor of poultry health at the Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine.

"We do have sporadic outbreaks of avian flu," Tablante said. "Most cases have been of the low-pathogen type."

Virginia, Maryland and Delaware are all major producers of poultry. Avian flu outbreaks in 2002 in Virginia and 2004 in Maryland and Delaware taught veterinarians the best ways to euthanize infected flocks and dispose of the carcasses to prevent the disease from spreading, Tablante said.

The H5N1 strain has not been found in North America, Tablante said. All poultry produced in the United States is safe to eat, he added.

http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/11310/

[Alli]

I heard a report on the radio, that eating a bowl of saurkraut :sex_14: each week helps lessen your chances of contracting the Bird Flu.

(no word on gastric side effects):add16:

[NYer]

I heard a report on the radio, that eating a bowl of saurkraut :sex_14: each week helps lessen your chances of contracting the Bird Flu.

(no word on gastric side effects):add16:

Sauerkraut could be the next Chicken Soup. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/health/2002608490_flucure07.html)

[Sanein One]

Interesting article, this so called flu "soup".

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...115?hub=Health

Duck virus tests taking longer than expected

Canadian Press

TORONTO — It's proving harder than anticipated to type the avian flu viruses wild ducks sampled in Canada were carrying because a number were co-infected with several strains, creating a viral "soup" that is difficult to separate down to its basic ingredients, government officials have admitted.

They say, however, that it appears that none of the viruses are highly pathogenic, a finding that would support the suggestion none of the birds were carrying the worrisome Asian H5N1 flu virus, which is a so-called high path virus.

"We can't say we don't have an H5N1," said Dr. Jim Clark, acting director of the animal health and production program for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, the lead government agency on this work.

"That's a possibility. But we can say with reasonable certainty that H5N1, if it is there, it's not the high path Asiatic subtype that's going on in Southeast Asia."

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses are lethal to domestic poultry. Viruses that are of low pathogenicity do not kill domestic flocks, though they can lead to a decline in egg production.

It has been over two weeks since federal officials said they had found H5 viruses in wild ducks sampled as part of a national surveillance project aimed at finding out what avian flu viruses might be present in this country.

Those findings were from sampling sites in Manitoba and Quebec only. Later, British Columbia authorities revealed they too had found H5 viruses. The results of sampling done in Ontario, Alberta and Atlantic Canada are still pending, Clark said.

At the time of the announcement, authorities believed they would be able to fully type the viruses -- determining what neuraminidases or Ns the viruses carried -- within days. But that estimate has proved to be too optimistic, because of the concurrent infections in many of the birds.

Dr. Frank Plummer, scientific director of the Public Health Agency of Canada's national microbiology laboratory, said laboratory technicians are finding a variety of neuraminidases, including N1s.

(To date the scientific world has identified nine different neuraminidases and 16 hemagglutinins -- the H in a flu virus's name -- that theoretically can come together in 144 possible combinations.)

"We're finding lots of different ones, including N1s. ... which is really not surprising because we've known from before that those different antigenic types are out there," Plummer said from Winnipeg.

"But knowing which goes with which is impossible from the soups that we have right now. It's just going to take some more time to sort it out."

The confusing findings are of little surprise to avian influenza researchers.

"It's typical," David Stallknecht, an avian influenza specialist at the University of Georgia's college of veterinary medicine, said of the viral melange Clark and Plummer described.

"What you get is a real soup. You get a lot of different serotypes."

Plummer said his lab has been doing genetic sequencing on genes from the viruses, but that isn't helping to clarify the picture.

"The sequencing's been problematic because the RNA is mixed up," he said.

"And it makes it difficult because you get two sets -- or three sets -- of sequences from this one sample. And they're all jumbled up. It's very hard to sort out."

"Say if you get an H5 and an N1, and an H7 and an N3 from a sample, you don't know which H goes with which N."

Clark said final results could be some time off - and it is conceivable all the viruses may never be fully subtyped.

"It could be months. Let's face it. Trying to get that pure virus may prove to be completely elusive. We may never get it."

[NYer]

WHO sees no sign of human to human transmission of Avian Flu in China. (http://pajamasmedia.com/newsml/html/2005/11/17/6419593_WHO_says_it_sees.shtml)

[hound of hell]

:love_02: i red a story about the virus in fact there r 2 viruses 1 got positive + while the other -..in fact the positive 1 can survive better in hot erea from temp 38-45occ-while the minus1|_ can survive in temp from 5+to-5 o cc.

[al-Canine]

WHO sees no sign of human to human transmission of Avian Flu in China. (http://pajamasmedia.com/newsml/html/2005/11/17/6419593_WHO_says_it_sees.shtml)

Hmmmmmm.... then THIS report is even more troubling! Is anyone paying attention there? China is the most likely place for this human-to-human pandemic to begin!


Expert says bird flu has killed 300 people in China

18:27 24 November 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Debora MacKenzie

A respected Japanese scientist, who works with the World Health Organization, says 300 people have died of H5N1 bird flu in China, including seven cases caused by human-to-human transmission.

He says he was given the information in confidence by Chinese colleagues who have been threatened with arrest if they disclosed the extent of the problem.

The allegations, which he revealed at a meeting in Germany, contrast sharply with China’s official position. It reports three confirmed cases of H5N1 in people: a boy in Hunan province who recovered, and two women who died in Anhui province, the latest of which was announced on Thursday. There may be another probable case in Hunan.

But Masato Tashiro, head of virology at Tokyo’s National Institute of Infectious Disease – a WHO-collaborating centre for bird flu – told the meeting of virologists in Marburg, Germany, on 19 November that “we have been systematically deceived”. His comments were reported in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

He told the stunned meeting, called to mark the retirement of a senior German virologist, that there have been “several dozen” outbreaks in people, 300 confirmed deaths and 3000 people placed in isolation with suspected cases.

Severe restrictions

Tashiro could not be reached for comment today. The newspaper reported that he said the numbers came from sources he trusted, while he was in Hunan province for the WHO, working with Chinese investigators on the recent H5N1 outbreak there.

He said five Chinese medical personnel had been arrested for trying to report these cases, according to the paper. China enforced severe restrictions on the investigation and reporting of suspected cases of bird flu in June 2005.

“These rumours have been investigated, and we’ve been told by the Chinese Ministry of Health that there’s no foundation to them,” Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization, told New Scientist.

Emergency workers

Virologists consider the relative absence of human cases of bird flu in China unusual, given its widespread infection in birds. China has reported poultry outbreaks in twenty counties all across the country since mid-October, the latest being on Thursday.

The WHO told the official Chinese news agency Xinhua last week that the virus causing the outbreak in Hunan is the same as the one in Vietnam and Thailand, where H5N1 has caused 113 confirmed human cases and 55 deaths so far.

There are other unconfirmed reports of human cases in China. Boxun News, an independent Chinese website, reported this week that 77 workers brought in to help control rampant H5N1 outbreaks in poultry in Liaoning province in November have died of the virus, listing 14 names.

Boxun reported the extent of the outbreak in wild birds at Qinghai Lake in central China in May, and alleged then that 120 people had been put in stringent hospital isolation in a nearby town, possibly with bird flu.



Related Articles

First confirmed human bird flu death in China
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8330
16 November 2005

Bird flu 'out of control' in Chinese province
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8306
11 November 2005

Claims of human bird flu cases in China denied
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7434
26 May 2005

Weblinks

Boxun News
http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/english/page1.shtml

Bird flu, WHO
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

Bird flu special report, New Scientist
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/bird-flu


http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8371

[Sanein One]

http://www.wincoast.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20941&highlight=human+transmission+avian+china

A previous post related to the Chinese avian flu issue. Of course the Communist control of this country would prevent any realistic assessment of the situation. By the way, where did SARS originate? China? The outbreak has probably already started.

[Klaus]

Source: NEIN

http://homelandsecurityus.com/home.htm


11 December 2005:
A growing threat to the security of the United States is what is known by various names, including "the bird flu," avian flu, and H5N1. Since early spring, the Northeast Intelligence Network has been monitoring the cases of H5N1, making direct inquiries with national and international agencies and officials. In a meeting at the White House on Saturday between cabinet secretaries, military leaders and other top officials , officials conducted a test of its readiness for a feared bird flu pandemic, warning that a pandemic "may be inevitable." Nonetheless, officials said federal agencies fared "quite well," but offered no specific details. Analysts at the Northeast Intelligence Network have found numerous inconsistencies and deliberate downplaying of the threat posed by H5N1, contrary to the standard public posturing of health officials. H5N1 is indeed a major health concern. Meticulous documentation has been maintained by the Northeast Intelligence Network illustrating the vast amount of conflicting information surrounding H5N1. Additional details will be provided in future reports.

[Dora]

:happy_11:

Hi Klaus! Thanks.

[NYer]

77 Deaths in Liaoning Province (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1529695/posts)( translation courtesy of Free Republic.)

[al-Canine]

U.S. FDA warns makers of 'bogus' flu remedies

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Tuesday it had warned nine companies to stop marketing "bogus" flu products.

The products, including capsules that allegedly contain bacteria from dirt and other assorted immune system "boosters," all claim or claimed to help prevent or treat avian flu.

"FDA is not aware of any scientific evidence that demonstrates the safety or effectiveness of these products for treating or preventing avian flu and the agency is concerned that the use of these products could harm consumers or interfere with conventional treatments," the agency said in a statement.

"The use of unproven flu cures and treatments increases the risk of catching and spreading the flu rather than lessening it because people assume they are protected and safe and they aren't," said Dr. Andrew von Eschenbach, acting FDA commissioner.

"I consider it a public health hazard when people are lured into using bogus treatments based on deceptive or fraudulent medical claims."

All of the companies sell via Internet Web sites and the FDA complained about several claims, including "prevents avian flu," "a natural virus shield," "kills the virus," and "treats the avian flu."

Most are promoted as being "natural" or "safer" treatments that can be used in place of approved drugs.

"In the Warning Letters, FDA advises the firms that it considers their products to be drugs because they claim to treat or prevent disease," the FDA said.

The H5N1 avian influenza is not yet spreading among people. It is affecting flocks of ducks and poultry, as well as some other birds, in several Asian countries as well as Romania and Ukraine.

It occasionally affects people and has killed 71 people out of the 138 known to have been infected. Experts fear it will mutate into a form easily passed from person to person and will cause a global pandemic.

Two FDA-approved drugs work to treat avian influenza but they are in short supply. There are no real alternatives.

The FDA found nine different Web sites claiming to offer remedies.

One it cites is Sacred Mountain Management Inc. whose Web site at http://www.absolutehealth.org offers a "probiotic" supplement containing beneficial bacteria.

"Avian flu prevention? The best defense I know of against the Avian flu is for Nature's Biotics to stimulate your body to produce a vast reservoir of uncoded antibodies ready to attack any new, unknown virus that comes your way," the site claims.

"The soil-based organisms in Nature's Biotics are able to stimulate the immune system in such a way as to help ward off attacks from mutated forms of the influenza virus (such as the Avian flu)," it says.

The site's owner, Sally Robinson of Colorado, did not immediately answer a telephone call.

Another Web site, http://www.bodestore.com/, had removed references to avian flu for its supplement Immutril by Tuesday afternoon. The company also offers remedies for joint pain, wrinkles and weight loss.

© Reuters 2005.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=2005-12-13T205431Z_01_MUN375194_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-FAKES.xml

[NYer]

Customs seizes phony Tamiflu. (http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1419789)

[al-Canine]

Bird flu victims died due to Tamiflu resistance

Two girls received early, aggressive treatment, concerned experts say

The Associated Press
Updated: 5:22 p.m. ET Dec. 21, 2005

In a development health experts are calling alarming, two bird flu patients in Vietnam died after developing resistance to Tamiflu, the key drug that governments are stockpiling in case of a large-scale outbreak.

The experts said the deaths were disturbing because the two girls had received early and aggressive treatment with Tamiflu and had gotten the recommended doses.

The new report suggests that the doses doctors now consider ideal may be too little. Previous reports of resistance involved people who had taken the drug in low doses; inadequate doses of medicine are known to promote resistance by allowing viruses or bacteria to mutate and make a resurgence.

Dr. Anne Moscona, a flu expert at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City, called the deaths frightening and said they demonstrate the dangers of hoarding drugs.

“People who stockpile will naturally share or take drugs at the wrong dose, and that’s really a bad idea,” said Moscona, who wrote an accompanying commentary in Thursday’s New England Journal of Medicine.

Since 2003, avian flu has killed about 70 people, mostly in Vietnam and Thailand, and nearly all involved close contact with infected birds. Health experts fear the virus could morph into a form that spreads easily between people.

Tamiflu and another drug, Relenza, are expected to be the front-line defense if that happens, but they must be taken soon after infection to be effective.


Tamiflu, made by Swiss-based Roche Holding AG, is the favored drug because it appears to be effective against all kinds of flu, including bird flu. GlaxoSmithKline’s Relenza requires an inhaler and has not been widely tested in people with avian flu.

Concerns about Tamiflu resistance surfaced in October when doctors discovered it in a 14-year-old Vietnamese girl who had been given low doses as a precaution because she was caring for a brother with bird flu. She survived, and doctors theorized the low doses caused the resistance.

The new report involved eight Vietnamese bird flu patients given Tamiflu upon being hospitalized in 2004 or 2005. Half of the patients died. Lab tests showed two of those who died — girls ages 13 and 18 — had developed resistance.

In the case of the 13-year-old, doctors were especially surprised to see resistance because she was treated within the time frame when the drug was supposed to be most effective.

The study was led by Dr. Menno de Jong of Oxford University.

David Reddy, who heads Roche’s influenza pandemic task force, said the study merits further investigation into whether patients need more of the drug.

Roche is conducting animal studies of different dosages to see which works best. Results are expected early next year.

In addition, Roche is working with the World Health Organization and the National Institutes of Health to begin a human experiment next year that would test whether doubling the current recommended Tamiflu dose is more effective, Reddy said.

Bird flu has some health experts worrying about hoarding of Tamiflu, which is tight supply as countries scramble to stock up.

In October, Roche announced it was suspending shipments to U.S. wholesalers and other private-sector recipients to ensure enough Tamiflu for the regular flu season. Roche is also negotiating with other companies to increase production.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10561923/

[NYer]

Hope those hoarding Tamiflu see news items such as this ...

[Atlas]

Hope those hoarding Tamiflu see news items such as this ...

A drowning man will grasp even the point of a sword.

I can't blame people for being scared. The press spews all this crap about avian influenza out without much explanation. I've been reading up on it. If the worse case scenario happens, we're screwed, it will be over and done with before we are able to react.

Every day that goes by with non human to human transmissibility puts us a little closer to a vaccine and lets the government get its ducks in a row about mitigating the effects.

[hound of hell]

birds flue..its all a jok from american who blow a biological bomb in aisa to stop the fast growth of there economy..y america did this its v simple even a litle kid can tel you y ...

[Klaus]

Respectable documentary on History Channel tonight called "Next Plague".
Worst case scenario Avian flu pandemic. Martial law.
Massive panic.
Most of the front-line Healthcare workers would be killed in the first wave.
Serious civil unrest.

Tamiflu...and tape and plastic.

[Atlas]

Respectable documentary on History Channel tonight called "Next Plague".
Worst case scenario Avian flu pandemic. Martial law.
Massive panic.
Most of the front-line Healthcare workers would be killed in the first wave.
Serious civil unrest.

Tamiflu...and tape and plastic.

Recent reports say avian flu is tamiflu resistant

[Klaus]

Very true.

[Klaus]

On History channel today (again) I saw a television commercial showing someone in a space suit and giving reminders to "cover your mouth when you cough", "wash your hands", etc...

and most importantly... "If you're sick, stay home."




www.cdc.gov/flu

[al-Canine]

Turkish bird flu victims 'were playing with chicken heads'

Luke Harding
Saturday January 7, 2006
Guardian

An 11-year-old girl became the third victim of bird flu in Turkey yesterday, days after her brother and sister died from the disease. Hulya Kocyigit, 11, died in a hospital in the eastern city of Van, as teams from the World Health Organisation and the European commission arrived in the region to assess the risk.

Doctors said the Kocyigit children had almost certainly contracted bird flu after playing with the heads of dead chickens at their parents' rural poultry farm. The girl's sister Fatima, 15, and brother Mehmet Ali, 14, died earlier this week. They are the first to have died from the H5N1 bird-flu strain in Turkey, prompting fears it could spread to mainland Europe.

"It looks like these cases have come from direct contact with poultry. We have seen this with most of the east Asian cases," Christine McNab, a spokeswoman for the WHO in Geneva, told the Guardian yesterday. She added: "If there is an outbreak of avian flu in poultry then eventually there will be human cases, especially if people touch infected chicken blood, feathers or insides. It's one of the major modes of transmission."

Some 30 people are in hospital with bird flu-like symptoms, officials in Van said. Three of them were in a serious condition. The condition of a fourth ill child from the same family had improved and he was no longer on a respirator.

The children were admitted with high fevers, coughing and bleeding in their throats. They had reportedly tossed the chicken heads "like balls" inside their home in Dogubayazit, a remote town close to the border with Armenia. "They played with the heads for days," Huseyin Avni Sahin, the head of the hospital, told agencies. "They were in very, very close contact with the dead chickens."

Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said people needed to be educated about the dangers after new cases were detected in five areas of eastern and south-eastern Turkey. The disease appears to have arrived via migratory birds from the Caucasus. Deaths of chickens from bird flu in the Dogubayazit district were first reported late last year. The disease in birds has also been discovered in Romania, Russia, and Croatia.

Yesterday, the Kurdish mayor of Dogubayazit accused the government of not doing enough. Mukkades Kubilay said the town did not have enough resources or medical facilities, Kurdish groups in London reported. Turkey said it was sending medicines to the area. The health minister, Recep Akdag, dismissed fears of a pandemic but said it was risky to have close contact with fowl.

Agriculture minister Mehdi Eker said the problem was aggravated as households with poultry allowed them in their homes at night when temperatures fell.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1681097,00.html

[NYer]

Is Avian Flu a threat? Yes. Is it a big or immediate threat? It's hard to say. (http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=010906A)

[NYer]

WHO: No evidence of Human - Human (http://www.di-ve.com/dive/portal/portal.jhtml?id=214823&pid=23) transmission of Avian Flu.

[NYer]

CDC is urging physicians NOT to prescribe two antivirals. (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,181678,00.html)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the recommendation covers the drugs rimantadine and amantadine during the current flu season.

"Laboratory testing by CDC on the predominant strain of influenza (H3N2) currently circulating in the United States shows that it is resistant to these drugs," according to a CDC statement.

The two drugs have been used for years to combat the type-A, or most common, strain of influenza.

The CDC tested 120 influenza A virus isolates from the H3N2 strain and found that 91 percent, or 109, were resistant to the two drugs, according to the statement.

"This represents a sharp increase from last year when only 11 percent of isolates tested were resistant and 1.9 percent were resistant the year before that," the statement said.

[al-Canine]

Wow, here's some really promising news!

http://www.latimes.com/la-na-birdflu27jan27,0,415814.story?

New Bird Flu Vaccine Is 100 Percent Effective in Animal Tests

By Thomas H. Maugh II | Los Angeles Times

Pennsylvania researchers have produced a bird flu vaccine made from a genetically engineered human cold virus and shown that it protected 100 percent of vaccinated mice and chickens.

While production of a conventional flu vaccine requires months of work and large numbers of fertilized chicken eggs, the researchers reported Thursday that they prepared their vaccine in only 36 days, growing it in a laboratory dish.

The ability to produce a new vaccine so quickly could give public health officials a powerful new tool to combat the H5N1 bird flu virus if it should mutate and begin infecting humans widely.

The team is working with the Food and Drug Administration to begin human tests of the vaccine, said Dr. Andrea Gambotto of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, who led the team. He said those trials could begin within weeks.

He said the vaccine should be equally effective in humans because it is based on a human virus.

Gambotto's research, conducted in conjunction with scientists from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is scheduled to be published in the Feb. 15 issue of the Journal of Virology and was made available early online.

The Pittsburgh team worked with a human cold virus, called an adenovirus, that had been stripped of the genes required for it to cause a respiratory infection.

Using genetic data from the CDC, they constructed the gene for a bird flu protein called hemagglutinin in the laboratory and added it to the adenovirus. The hemagglutinin protein allows the bird flu virus to bind to and enter cells that it infects.

The whole process of producing the vaccine took 36 days from the time the researchers received the DNA sequence information, Gambotto said.

Mice injected with the vaccine were 100 percent protected against the bird flu virus, the team reported, while those injected only with an unaltered adenovirus all died within a few days of being exposed to the bird flu virus.

Studying the mice, the team found that the vaccine produced two types of immunity -- antibodies that block the hemagglutinin and prevent it from binding to cells, and T-cells that attack the invading virus.

"This means that this recombinant vaccine can stimulate several lines of defense against the H5N1 virus, giving it greater therapeutic value," said microbiologist Simon Barratt-Boyes of the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health and a member of the team.

"More importantly, it suggests that even if H5N1 mutates, the vaccine is still likely to be effective against it," he said.

When the vaccine was given to chickens as a mist administered through the nose, about half the birds were protected from the flu. But when they were injected with the vaccine, they were 100 percent protected.

"This is a very potent vaccine," Gambotto said. "The results of this animal trial are very promising."

The team is not sure why the intranasal administration was not as protective, he added.

So far, the bird flu virus has infected mostly birds, although 152 humans have contracted it and more than 80 have died, according to the World Health Organization. Experts fear, however, that the virus will mutate slightly, allowing it to infect humans more easily and leading to a pandemic.

The virus originated in southeast Asia but has now spread to other areas, including Turkey, Siberia and Kazakhstan.

[nancydrew]

Bird Flu in Iraq
From Reuters at http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/COL043199.htm
nancy
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Iraq says dead teenager had bird flu
30 Jan 2006 18:31:39 GMT
Source: Reuters
Background
Bird flu questions and answers

FACTBOX: Bird flu threatens to become global pandemic

MORE

(Adds WHO comment on third possible case)


By Twana Osman

SULAIMANIYA, Iraq, Jan 30 (Reuters) - A 14-year-old girl who died in northern Iraq this month had bird flu, Iraq's health minister said on Monday, despite the World Health Organisation having initially discounted the virus as the cause of death.

A WHO official said preliminary results from a U.S. military laboratory in Cairo showed the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, but it was urgently seeking further tests at a British laboratory.

If confirmed it would be the first known human case of the avian virus in Iraq, whose northern provinces border Turkey, where more than 20 people have already been diagnosed with H5N1.

The girl died on Jan. 17 and her uncle died last Friday, also suffering from respiratory problems. Samples from him have been also sent to Britain for testing.

Iraq is investigating a possible third human case in the same part of northern Iraq, the WHO said. The patient was a 54-year-old woman who was taken to hospital with respiratory problems on Jan. 18 and is still being treated, a spokesman at WHO headquarters in Geneva said.

"In Iraq the authorities will move as if it is confirmed ... A mission from the WHO will travel to Iraq to assess the situation," said Zuhair Halaj, head of communicable diseases at the WHO office in Cairo.

So far there are no confirmed cases among poultry in Iraq, but the WHO says the emergence now of possible human victims underlines the need for better surveillance.

Iraq has banned poultry imports from Turkey, but officials admit the rebel violence and anarchy that have impoverished Iraq, leaving its frontiers porous and sanitary regulations unenforceable, will make it hard to control an epidemic.

The health minister of Iraq's largely autonomous northern Kurdistan region, where the girl lived, said all poultry in and around the city of Sulaimaniya would be destroyed in a bid to prevent the spread of the virus.

MIGRATORY BIRDS

Bird flu is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia and can infect people who come into close contact with infected birds. It has killed at least 83 people since late 2003 and recently spread to Turkey, where local officials blame it for the death of four children.

Scientists say the H5N1 virus is mutating steadily and may eventually acquire the changes it needs to be easily transmitted from human to human. Because people lack any immunity to it, it could sweep the world in weeks or months, killing millions.

Fourteen-year-old Tijan Abdel-Qader died in a hospital in Sulaimaniya two weeks ago after being brought from her home in Raniya, close to Lake Dukan, a magnet for many migratory birds.

"The test of Tijan's blood emphasised that she had bird flu from the kind that kills humans," Iraqi Health Minister Abdul Muttalib Mohammed Ali told a news briefing in Sulaimaniya.

The WHO said on Jan. 19 the teenager did not have bird flu. A WHO spokeswoman said at the weekend the statement had been based on tests carried out only in Iraq.

WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng said testing for bird flu was complex and it would not be the first time that first diagnoses had been revised.

Doctors usually test sputum, looking for the virus in lung secretions but it is possible to test the blood for antibodies against the virus a few days after infection.

The WHO's Halaj said the U.S. military laboratory had "done the preliminary test and it was H5N1 ... the next stage is another test which isolates the virus".

IRAQIS ALARMED

News of the positive result alarmed residents of Baghdad, who feared it would inflict further damage on their country's already battered economy.

"If there are more cases, the economy will detoriorate and our lives will be greatly affected, because then we will have to buy other foodstuffs rather than chicken and eggs. We ask the government to protect us," said Khalid Obaisy, 42, a labourer.

Sa'ad Adnan, 45, the owner of the Kahramana chicken restaurant said many people had already been put off eating chicken. "This news is going to cause panic and chaos," he said. (Additional reporting by Omar al-Ibadi in Baghdad, Richard Waddington in Geneva and Amil Khan in Cairo)

[NYer]

Potential Bird Flu Early Warning (http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/technology/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=178601553) technology

[al-Canine]

Three Days With a Bird Flu Sleuth

A WHO Epidemiologist Probes The Death of a Jakarta Nurse As Fears of Viral Mutation Grow

By Alan Sipress
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, February 6, 2006

JAKARTA, Indonesia The maroon minivan had just edged into morning traffic, but passenger Gina Samaan, a field investigator for the World Health Organization, admitted she was already a bit worried.

This much was for sure, she said, reviewing the case from the back seat on an excursion one day last month. A 29-year-old Jakarta woman hospitalized with acute pneumonia had died two days before, and the early diagnosis was bird flu. Her samples had tested positive for the avian influenza virus at a government laboratory and another, little-publicized lab run by the U.S. Navy across from the capital's main prison.

The local news media were reporting that chickens in the woman's neighborhood had recently fallen sick and died, suggesting she had caught bird flu from poultry like other Indonesian victims. But Samaan disclosed that bird samples tested by the city's veterinary department had all come back negative.

If the source was not chickens, could it have been another person? If so, it might mean the virus had mutated into a form more easily transmitted among humans -- signaling the earliest stages of a global influenza pandemic that could potentially kill millions.

That ominous prospect seemed to grow for a time as this influenza gumshoe followed a trail of clues that led her unexpectedly into a neighboring province and back again.

As in many cases on the influenza beat, Samaan, 29, might never be able to nail the culprit. But she was bent on determining whether human infection was at least the likely explanation.

If the evidence pointed to a chain of human cases, WHO might have to sound a global alert. Since the middle of last year, more people had died in Indonesi a from bird flu than anywhere else, and international health experts were warning that if a worldwide epidemic were to erupt, there was no likelier starting place for it than here.

Day 1: East Jakarta

Samaan, her dark eyes earnest and intent behind rimless glasses and her brown hair tied back in a ponytail, wasn't taking any chances. She had stashed several masks in the back of the WHO van. In her bulky brown pocketbook, she kept a small bottle of pink antiseptic hand sanitizer and a cheap thermometer. She had been taking her temperature twice a day since arriving in Jakarta eight months earlier from Australia's Health Department.

She had donned simple shoes with covered tops to protect her feet from sources of contamination, such as bird droppings, and with flat soles that were easy to clean. She said she washed them in the sink after each outing and, as a result, was going through a new pair every other month or so.

But for all her preparations, Samaan wasn't expecting what she saw when she pulled up in the victim's neighborhood, accompanied by her Indonesian interpreter and an official from the Health Ministry's national lab. WHO and Indonesian health officials allowed a reporter to join investigators on condition that the names of the victim and her relatives, home address and place of work be withheld for medical privacy reasons.

It was as if the whole neighborhood had turned out in a single grassy yard to wait for Samaan. Several men crowded around her, confirming that two chickens had died about a month earlier not far from the victim's home and that the carcasses had been quickly burned.

Samaan listened intently, lips pursed, jotting down the details in a spiral notebook. Two dead birds, no samples. It was hard to conclude they were the cause.

She found the victim's mother and ushered her to the shade of a tree in a quiet corner of the yard. The mother was a handsome woman in a plain orange dress, hair pulled back in a bun. Samaan inquired about the other members of the family, where they lived and whether they were healthy. Everyone, she was told, was fine.

Samaan asked whether the woman had noticed any dying birds.

"We didn't see any sick chickens. But most of the time we weren't home. We're a working family," the mother said, furrows deepening across her brow. Then she added, "My daughter's a nurse at a hospital."

Samaan's expression didn't change. But she later recalled feeling her heart drop. If the victim was a nurse, she might have been infected by a patient -- or, worse, passed the disease to others at the hospital.

"Which department did she work in?" Samaan probed. "ICU? Pediatrics?"

"I don't really know," the mother said. "She's a regular nurse."

Samaan asked to see the family's home and was led down a narrow concrete alley, past small, neat dwellings with laundry hanging out front. The victim had lived at the end of the block. Samaan took a quick tour of the house, peeking into the refrigerator for possible contamination, examining the hanging basket where the family kept eggs for any sign of bird droppings. Everything looked clean.

In fact, except for a pair of black hens hiding in a bush near the house of the neighborhood official for the block, there was no trace of poultry anywhere, Samaan noted.

Though Indonesian and foreign media would continue in the coming days to blame chickens for the woman's death, Samaan did not think so. It could be something far worse.

Day 2: West Java Province

Samaan had been so anxious about checking out the hospital where her victim worked that she hadn't had time to arrange for the WHO van to take her. She roused her interpreter with a playful, early morning plea: "C'mon, let's go save the world." Then they hailed a taxi on the street.

After waiting nearly an hour in the lobby of the modern, five-story hospital in Jakarta's southern suburbs, Samaan was escorted to a conference room, where four hospital executives joined her across an oval table. The hospital's personnel chief, a slight woman in a pink blazer, recalled that the victim had complained of fever and chills when she reported for work on New Year's Day, so she was sent home. She had usually worked in the maternity ward as a midwife.

That last detail was welcome news. It made it less likely that the woman had contracted the illness in the hospital, because the maternity ward's patients tended to be healthy.

The personnel chief produced schedules and time sheets. Samaan and several others huddled around them. Samaan made a mental note of two overnight shifts the midwife had worked on Dec. 27 and 28 -- the dates she was most likely to have contracted the virus.

Samaan asked whether there was any illness among women who had given birth in the maternity ward or their families. Nothing unusual, she was told. She asked about the other midwives. All were healthy. She requested to meet a few.

The maternity ward was clean and quiet. Four newborns slumbered in small, glass-sided cribs. The personnel director showed in two midwives. They reported that their health was good, further allaying Samaan's fear that the hospital was the source of infection.

Samaan inquired about their colleague's final days.

"She mentioned she had been coughing for a while. That's all," one said.

"Did she ever talk about going to a poultry market?" Samaan continued, following up on what the family had told her a day earlier.

The young midwife giggled softly, covering her mouth with her hand. "Sometimes she would go after work," she recounted. "She would go buy chicken feet. That was one of her favorite foods."

Day 3: East Jakarta

Markets made Samaan uneasy.

When she first came to Indonesia, she recalled, she was always fretting about catching bird flu. "I counted the sneezes I'd make," she quipped. As she learned more about the disease's behavior, she worried less about the risk of contracting it at victims' homes or from their families.

But traditional Asian poultry markets -- where butchers, birds and buyers come into intimate contact, blood flowing and feathers flying -- could be dangerous places.

After two days of detective work, Samaan believed she had now tracked the infection to a large, covered market in a teeming quarter of the capital. She suspected that the victim had come here to pick up some chicken after an overnight shift at the hospital.

Samaan and two Health Ministry officials walked up to the second floor and waded into the dim aisles, passing gold shops, cluttered grocery kiosks and music stalls blaring Indonesian pop tunes.

Soon they could hear the thud! thud! of a meat cleaver. They sloshed along tile floors slick with water, mud and rivulets of blood. On the counters, butchered chickens lay in rows, claws extended upward. Toward the back, a few survivors clucked in dissent, their legs bound to makeshift wooden cages.

"Her friends at the hospital said she really like chicken feet," Samaan said, pointing to a small pile on the counter.

Samaan and the other officials approached a merchant who was busy grasping chickens with his bare hands and slitting their throats. They asked whether the market had been checked for bird flu.

The merchant responded that local veterinary authorities tested the market once or twice a week.

"What did they find?"

Swoosh went the knife. "It's disease-free," the merchant said.

Samaan said she was skeptical about the quality of the local testing. Neither the merchant's responses nor the unsanitary conditions inspired confidence.

But then, emerging into the sunlight, she spied something else: several peasant women seated on the blacktop hawking chickens off wooden crates.

"She didn't have to go all the way in there," Samaan said, retracing the victim's steps in her mind. "She could have bought the chicken right here. That might be more risky."

Samaan had found no evidence that her victim caught the virus from another person. But she had been reluctant to end the probe until she was confident of a better explanation. Now, she said, she had uncovered the missing piece.

"There was plenty of potential for exposure here," Samaan concluded.

&#169; 2006 The Washington Post Companyhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/05/AR2006020500933.html

[NYer]

Avian flu hits Italy (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,184562,00.html)

Italy's health minister said Saturday that the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain had been detected in swans in the country — the first time the virus has been detected in Italy.

The virus was found in swans in three Italian regions: Puglia and Calabria in southern Italy, and Sicily, said Health Minister Francesco Storace. The swans had arrived from the Balkans, he said.

[al-Canine]

Now it's in Austria. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/4713536.stm)

Austria finds bird flu in swans
The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been confirmed in swans in Austria.
Austria's health authorities said the cases in two dead wild swans were the first to be found in the country.

The H5N1 strain, which can be deadly to humans, was also confirmed on Saturday in neighbouring Italy, as well as in Greece and Bulgaria.

[al-Canine]

H5N1 bird flu found in dead swans in Germany (http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-02-14T202331Z_01_L14609107_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU-GERMANY-TEST.xml)

Iran detects first cases of H5N1 bird flu (http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-02-14T125523Z_01_OLI444217_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-IRAN.xml&archived=False)

[Klaus]

www.cnn.com


SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- As many as 142 million people around the world could die if bird flu turns into a "worst case" influenza pandemic, according to a sobering new study of its possible consequences.

And global economic losses could run to $4.4 trillion -- the equivalent of wiping out the Japanese economy's annual output.

The study, prepared for the Sydney, Australia-based Lowy Institute think tank, says there are "enormous uncertainties" about whether a flu pandemic might happen, and where and when it might happen first.

But it says even a mild pandemic could kill 1.4 million people and cost $330 billion.

In its "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy is halved, the large-scale collapse of Asian economic activity causes global trade flows to dry up, and money flows out to safe havens in North America and Europe. Deaths could top 28 million in China and 24 million in India.

The report's release in Sydney Thursday comes as two more countries in Europe -- Germany and Austria -- report that the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in wild fowl (Full story).

The Lowy Institute's report, titled Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, looks at four possible scenarios:


Mild, in which the pandemic is similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu;


Moderate, similar to the 1957 Asian flu;


Severe, similar to the 1918-19 Spanish flu (which infected an estimated 1 billion people and claimed as many as 50 million lives);


An "ultra" scenario that is worse than the Spanish flu outbreak.

Although the 1918-19 flu outbreak probably originated in Asia, it was known as the Spanish flu because the Spanish media were the first to report on its impact.

Since bird flu first appeared in China's Guangdong province -- which adjoins Hong Kong -- in 1996, the disease has claimed more than 90 human lives -- almost all in Asia, with the most recent deaths in Turkey.

In addition, about 200 million birds around the world have died or been culled.

Outside of Asia, there have been bird flu outbreaks in Greece, Italy, Turkey, Croatia, Russia, Azerbaijan and Romania in Europe, Iraq and Iran in the Middle East and in Nigeria, Africa. (Full story)

This spread of the disease from Asia to the fringes of Europe in recent weeks has prompted massive global attention on possible prevention measures, with the U.S., the EU and countries such as China and Japan committing hefty financial and human resources to combating the disease.

But the new Lowy Institute report, by the Australian National University's Prof. Warwick McKibbin and research fellow Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, says the major difficulty with influenza vaccine development is "the need to hit the constantly moving target as the virus mutates very rapidly."

Their observation follows a scientific study released last week which said bird flu was much more diverse than previously thought, with at least four distinct types of the deadly H5N1 virus (Full story).

In that study, a group of 29 scientists around the globe found that the virus was both more genetically diverse and able to survive in birds showing no signs of illness.

One of the researchers, Dr. Malik Peiris, professor of microbiology at Hong Kong University, told CNN on February 8 that regional virus types meant there was a need to look for "broad cross-protection" rather than a single vaccine.

Peiris said that while wild birds may contribute to the introduction and spread of bird flu, the perpetuation of the disease was through stocks of domestic poultry. He said no country was fully prepared to combat the disease, which needed to be tracked back and tackled at its source.

Further mutation
So far, all but a handful of cases of human sickness have been caused by direct contact with sick birds, suggesting the virus is unable to move easily among humans.

But health officials have warned that with continued exposure to people, the virus could mutate further and develop that ability.

While scientists scramble to prepare an effective medical response, the Lowy Institute report primarily looks at the macroeconomic impact of a flu pandemic.

It said there would be four main sets of "shocks" for each scenario: shocks to the labor force (through deaths and dislocation to production); additional supply shocks through increased costs; demand shocks; and risk premium shocks, involving financial flows.

In the worst scenario, it said the death toll could reach 28.4 million in China, 24 million in India, 11.4 million in Indonesia, 4.1 million in the Philippines, 2.1 million in Japan, 2.0 million in the United States and 5.6 million in Europe. In the world's least developed countries, the toll could top 33 million.

The study's figure of 142 million possible deaths is similar to an earlier estimate of 150 million deaths by World Health Organization senior official David Nabarro, when he was named as head of the United Nations avian flu response team in September last year.

The Lowy Institute study found that East Asian economies would be proportionately more affected than the United States or Europe. In the "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy, for example, would shrink by more than 53 percent.

"This is clearly a major economic catastrophe," the report's authors note.

"The large scale collapse of Asia causes global trade flows to dry up and capital to flow to safe havens in North America and Europe."

Japan would experience a larger shock than other industrialized economies, but a smaller shock than the rest of East Asia. However, its integration with the collapsing East Asian economies means it would take a further shock through declining trade flows.

The authors say a "key part of the story" is the monetary policy response.

"Those countries that tend to focus on preventing exchange rate changes are coincidentally the countries that experience the largest epidemiological shocks," they say.

"This is particularly true of Hong Kong, which receives the largest shocks and has the most rigid exchange rate regime."

The report concludes that a "large investment of resources" should be dedicated to preventing an outbreak of pandemic influenza.

The Lowy Institute report is authored by Prof. Warwick McKibbin, professorial fellow at the institute and Professor of Economics at the Australian National University (ANU); and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, a research fellow at the ANU's National Center for Epidemiology and Population Health, and adjunct research fellow at the ANU's Australian Center for Economic Research on Health.

[al-Canine]

French duck is 'likely' flu case

The French farming ministry says a dead duck found near Lyon "very probably" had the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

It has been confirmed as the country's first case of the H5 virus, but tests are continuing.

The result makes it the seventh country in the European Union, including Germany and Austria, to confirm cases.

France, Europe's largest poultry producer, and the Netherlands have applied to the European Union to start preventative vaccination in some areas.

A European Commission spokesman said the vaccination plans would be considered by the EU's Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health next week.

The French authorities have notified the Commission that the duck found in Ain, near Lyon, had the H5 strain of bird flu and there was a strong suspicion that was H5N1.

Emergency plans

A 3km (2m) safety cordon has been established around the site where the wild duck was found, and wildlife surveillance stepped up across a 10km area. Vets will check all birds in the zone, in accordance with EU emergency measures.

It follows the confirmation of the deadly H5N1 virus in dead swans in Austria, Germany, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy in the last week.

Tests are still being carried out on two dead ducks found in the Somme region in the north of the France.

The French government has ordered all poultry and tame birds to be kept indoors, in a bid to halt the spread of the infection.

Earlier this week, the EU approved a series of measures to try to halt the spread of the virus, including the automatic creation of protection and surveillance zones around outbreaks in wild birds.

If the virus transfers from wild birds to poultry, "buffer zones" that could cover an entire region should be established and the transport of poultry restricted within them.

The H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus has killed at least 90 people around the world, mainly in South-East Asia, since it emerged in 2003.

It can infect humans in close contact with infected birds, but there is no evidence that it can be passed from human to human.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/4723688.stm

Published: 2006/02/17 17:29:04 GMT

© BBC MMVI

[al-Canine]

Malaysia treats seven as India awaits bird flu results

By Krittivas Mukherjee

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Seven Malaysians living near an area with bird flu were being treated in hospital on Wednesday, while India anxiously waited to see if a group of 12 in quarantine were the country's first human victims of the virus.

The seven, including five children aged between 2 and 12, all had respiratory problems and test results would be available within a day, Malaysia's health minister said. India is hoping results of its tests might come later on Wednesday.

Alarm is growing at the sudden resurgence of the H5N1 virus as it spreads rapidly across Europe, into Africa and now India, where hundreds of millions of people live in rural areas side-by-side with livestock and domestic fowl.....

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-02-22T141156Z_01_SP9253_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU.xml

[Klaus]

This virus only needs to mutate 2 or 3 more times to make the jump to H2H.
There's not enough Tamiflu to save everyone, if it does work.
But great news for VeriChip! Texas has passed legislation to require registration domestic and commercial poultry for GPS chip implants. It's all conditioning for the next phase. My sister's organic free-range chickens are being acosted by jack-booted thugs.

Bird flu is coming.

[al-Canine]

France Fights Panic Following Flu Outbreak

By ELAINE GANLEY
The Associated Press
Saturday, February 25, 2006; 3:56 PM

PARIS -- French President Jacques Chirac urged consumers not to panic Saturday, hours after the government announced the European Union's first outbreak of deadly bird flu in commercial poultry.

Chirac said chickens and eggs remained safe to eat as he munched a piece of the famously succulent chicken from the Ain region, where the lethal virus was confirmed in turkeys.

Panic among consumers is "totally unjustified," Chirac said during a visit to open the annual Paris Agriculture Fair. "The virus in question ... is automatically destroyed by cooking. So there is absolutely no danger."

Yet fear already was setting in, raising worries for a multibillion-dollar industry that makes France the premier poultry producer among the EU's 25 nations.

Japan's decision Friday to suspend imports of French poultry and poultry products, including foie gras, signaled the potential impact even before the confirmation that the deadly H5N1 virus had decimated a farm of more than 11,000 turkeys at Versailleux in southeastern France.

Japan imported 1,664 tons of duck and other poultry meat and 416 tons of internal organs, including foie gras, from France in 2005.

In France itself, there has been a drop of up to 30 percent in poultry purchases in recent weeks. Chirac noted the "economic and social consequences" of panic and said the French must not fall into such a trap.

The lethal strain has spread from Asia to at least 10 European countries and Africa, and scientists fear it could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted between humans, sparking a pandemic. The disease has killed at least 93 people, mostly in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia recorded its 20th human death from bird flu Saturday, as China reported two new cases of human infection and India said two poultry farms in western Gujarat state had been contaminated by the virus in that nation's second known outbreak.

No human cases of bird flu have been reported in the EU.

French authorities sealed off the infected turkey farm Thursday. The farm's veterinarian said nearly all the 11,000 birds there were sick and hundreds had died. Surviving birds were slaughtered.

The farmer's family was quarantined and vehicles passing through a protection zone around the farm were required to ride through a 100-foot-long trough of disinfectant.

News that bird flu had spread to farm stocks was particularly bitter for France, which has been working for months to prevent and prepare for an outbreak.

France has some 200,000 farms that raise 900 million birds each year. In 2004, the latest year for which figures are available, the French poultry sector generated more than $3.6 billion in revenues _ more than 20 percent of the EU's total poultry production.

The head of France's powerful farm union, Jean-Michel Lemetayer, asked Chirac to demand financial aid from the EU.

Agriculture Minister Dominique Bussereau said Friday that authorities were perplexed about how the virus appeared in commercial poultry despite precautionary measures.

The farm is located in a protection zone set up after two wild ducks died and were confirmed infected with H5N1. There was speculation the outbreak may have been caused by duck droppings on straw placed in the turkey pens, France's Poultry Industry Association said.

Claude Lassus, the veterinarian for the Versailleux farm, told France-Info radio Friday that he believed the straw theory was the only explanation for the infection.

Authorities in the eastern German state of Brandenburg said Saturday that two wild birds had tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, the first cases in that part of Germany.

The state's Agriculture Ministry said the two dead birds _ a swan and a duck _ were found around the town of Schwedt, northeast of Berlin and close to the border with Poland.

___

Associated Press writer Emmanuel Georges-Picot contributed to this report.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/25/AR2006022500920.html

[NYC]

It's going to be here in the US by summer

[NYer]

It's going to be here in the US by summer

Or Sooner. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/fronts/BIRDFLU?SITE=7219&SECTION=HOME)

[al-Canine]

Cat in Germany Has Bird Flu

The deadly strain of bird flu was confirmed Tuesday in a cat in northern Germany, the first time the virus has been identified in a mammal in the 25 nations of the European Union.

The cat was on the northern island of Ruegen, where most of the more than 100 wild birds infected by the H5N1 strain were found, the Friedrich Loeffler institute said.

The cat was found dead over the weekend and then tested positive for H5N1, laboratory leader Thomas Mettenleiter said.

In Geneva, World Health Organization spokeswoman Maria Cheng said this was the first time she knows of an animal other than a bird being infected in Europe. Tigers and leopards were infected by H5N1 in Thailand, where they were fed chicken carcasses in a zoo.

Bird flu infections also have been confirmed in January in humans in the Asian part of Turkey. Twenty-one people in the country tested positive for the H5N1 strain, and four children died.

It is not clear whether cats can pass the disease to humans, Cheng said.

"We know that mammals can be infected by H5N1, but we don't know what this means for humans," she said.

Mettenleiter said there are no known cases of the virus moving from cats to humans, but he still cautioned pet owners on Ruegen to keep their cats inside for now.

"An infection of humans, which theoretically cannot be ruled out, could probably only occur with very intimate contact to infected animals," Mettenleiter said.

In addition to the large cats infected in Thailand, three house cats near Bangkok were found to be infected with the virus in February In that case, officials said one cat ate a dead chicken on a farm where there was a bird flu outbreak, and the virus apparently spread to the others.

The H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus was detected in a fifth German state _ Bavaria, where wild birds were infected.

The Friedrich Loeffler institute determined that two wild birds found in the southern state tested positive for the strain, state officials said.

The first cases of H5N1 in Germany were found on Ruegen in mid- February.

The World Health Organization on Monday raised its official tally of human bird flu cases worldwide to 173, including 93 deaths. Almost all human deaths from bird flu have been linked to contact with infected birds.

Meanwhile, the United States has banned poultry and live bird shipments from southeast France, where H5N1 was found in turkeys, officials said Tuesday.

However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the ban applies only to Ain, not to all of France. Japan and Hong Kong have suspended imports of all French poultry.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/02/28/D8G27RJG4.html

[rectar]

They have been plunking birds and cats in the labs....

[uchiuke123]

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1001:6827072271703608309::NO::F2400_P1001 _BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,32189

"Iraq said on Tuesday [28 Feb 2006] it was making checks for 3 suspected
human cases of bird flu in Baghdad and one in the north eastern province of
Dayala."

Regis posted about this site a long time ago.

uchiuke123

[NYer]

Very valuable site, thanks!

[NYC]

Austrian Cats, Polish Swans Have Bird Flu
- - - - - - - - - - - -

By MELISSA EDDY Associated Press Writer
March 06,2006 | VIENNA, Austria -- Several cats have tested positive for the deadly strain of bird flu in Austria's first reported case of the disease spreading to an animal other than a bird, state authorities said Monday.
The World Health Organization called bird flu a greater global challenge than any previous infectious disease, costing global agriculture more than $10 billion and affecting the livelihoods of 300 million farmers.

Poland reported its first outbreak of the disease, saying Monday that laboratory tests confirmed that two wild swans had died of the lethal strain.

Dr. Margaret Chan, who is spearheading WHO's efforts against bird flu, told disease experts meeting in Geneva to discuss bird flu preparations that the organization's top priority was to keep the deadly strain from mutating into a form easily passed between humans. That could trigger a global pandemic.

Since February, the virus has spread to birds in 17 new countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East, she said.

"We truly feel that this present threat and any other threat like it is likely to stretch our global systems to the point of collapse," said Dr. Mike Ryan, director of epidemic and pandemic alert and response at WHO.

WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng said experts hope to isolate outbreaks and establish agreements allowing international health authorities to respond quickly, testing viruses and putting in place measures to contain the disease.

Two or three cats, all of which are still alive, have tested positive for the deadly H5N1 strain of the disease in Austria, Hans Seitinger, the top agriculture official in the southern state of Styria, told state broadcaster ORF.

German authorities last month confirmed that a cat on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen had succumbed to the deadly virus, which it is believed to have caught by eating an infected bird.

That would be consistent with a pattern of disease transmission seen in wild cats in Asia.

German officials have warned pet owners to keep their cats indoors and dogs on a leash in areas where the disease has been detected
Austria confirmed the nation's first case of H5N1 in a wild bird last month and has since detected several dozen cases in birds, including 29 in Styria alone.

Some of those cases were in chickens taken to an animal shelter near Graz, the capital of Styria. The shelter also houses cats. It was not immediately clear if the sick cats came from the shelter.

According to the World Health Organization, several tigers and snow leopards in a zoo and several house cats were infected with H5N1 during outbreaks in Asia in 2003 and 2004.

Poland announced that the infected swans were found dead Thursday in Torun, about 120 miles northwest of Warsaw. Samples were being sent to Britain for further tests.

According to the latest World Health Organization figures, the H5N1 strain has killed at least 94 people since 2003, mostly in Asia, and devastated poultry stocks. Scientists are concerned that the virus could mutate into a form easily spread between people, sparking a pandemic.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, based in Rome, reportedly criticized wealthy nations for a slow response to the bird flu threat. FAO head Jacques Diouf said "governments have sinned by failing to look ahead and have a sense of solidarity," according to the French daily Liberation.
"Developed countries thought that this was going on in Asia, that it was far away and that we were exaggerating the risks of the epidemic," Diouf was quoted as saying.

They "only began to respond when the flu reached Turkey" two years later, he reportedly said.

[NYer]

US to test new Avian Flu Vaccines. (http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/tb/2805)

The National Institutes of Health has already created and tested one vaccine against H5N1 flu, reported Leavitt at the National Immunization Conference of the CDC here yesterday. It provides an immune response that should be protective, although the required dose is relatively high.

He said that eight million doses of that vaccine are available, but the virus has continued to evolve. He said HHS intends to develop lots of a vaccine for a clinical testing pilot against the virus now circulating in parts of Asia, Europe, and Africa.

"We will continue this approach as different versions of H5N1 virus or other viruses with pandemic potential appear," Leavitt said in remarks prepared for delivery to the conference.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization believes that avian flu poses the greatest challenge to the world of any infectious disease, including AIDS.

[Klaus]

http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Cats-with-bird-flu-may-mean-human-danger/2006/03/08/1141701533026.html

Reports that a cat contracted bird flu could mean the virus is adapting to mammals and poses a potentially higher risk to humans, a World Health Organisation (WHO) official says.

Michael Perdue, a scientist with the WHO's global influenza program, said more studies were needed on infections in cats, including how they shed the virus.

But Perdue said there was no evidence cats were hidden carriers of the virus, which can wipe out poultry flocks in the space of 48 hours and infect people.

Austria said that a cat in an animal sanctuary in the southern city of Graz had tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus but had yet to show any symptoms of the disease.

However, the virus could take up to a week to strike and it was possible the cat in Austria could still develop clinical signs, Perdue said.

"We have to follow-up with laboratory studies to see if it (the virus) changed genetically and is not causing clinical signs," Perdue said.

"If it is true, it would imply the virus has changed significantly," he said.

The virus has killed 95 people in East Asia and the Middle East since late 2003.

Most of the victims contracted the disease directly from sick poultry, but experts fear the virus could mutate and spread easily among people, sparking a pandemic which could kill millions.

Animals carrying H5N1 without showing any signs of ill health could make it harder to detect and contain bird flu.

The longer the virus remains dormant in a mammal, without it getting sick or dying, the greater the risk of it also mutating into a more dangerous form.

[NYer]

Bird Flu pandemic is only One Amino Acid (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060307/43989397.html) away.

The world is one step away from a bird flu pandemic that cannot be averted by quarantine or vaccination, a Russian expert said Tuesday.

"One amino-acid replacement in the genome remains to make the virus transferable from human to human," said Dmitry Lvov, the director of a virology research institute at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.

Lvov said the pandemic virus could strike at any moment, and would most likely come from China, leading to tens of millions of human deaths, or one third of the global population. He added quarantine measures could delay the pandemic for a few days but not prevent it, and that vaccination would not stop people getting sick.

"A good vaccine will only save [people] from death and complications, but not from the illness itself," he said.

[Atlas]

Cameroon reports first case of bird flu

Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:38 AM ET


YAOUNDE (Reuters) - Cameroon on Sunday became the fourth country in Africa to report an outbreak of bird flu after the disease was detected in young chicks in the West African country's northernmost province.

"The first case of bird flu has been detected in the Far North province," the government said in a statement read on state radio.

"The case was detected after laboratory tests conducted on dead chicks in Maroua (in Far North province) were positive," it added.

The statement did not specify whether the outbreak was of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza strain, which has already been confirmed in domestic poultry flocks in Nigeria, Niger and Egypt.

Cameroon's Far North province borders to the west with Nigeria, where Africa's first outbreak of H5N1 bird flu was confirmed on February 8.

As the disease spreads in Africa, international experts are concerned that the world's poorest continent, already saddled with HIV/AIDS and malaria, is ill-equipped to combat this new health threat.

Suspected poultry outbreaks in Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia and Sierra Leone are already under investigation.

Bird flu has killed at least 97 people in Asia and the Middle East since 2003. Victims contract the virus through close contact with infected poultry.

Health officials are concerned that infection across Africa, where millions live in close contact with poultry in their homes and backyards, will increase the probability that the virus will mutate to become transmissible between humans.



http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-03-12T093804Z_01_L12640699_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-CAMEROON.xml&archived=False

[al-Canine]

Get out the duct tape! Um, I mean, TUNA FISH!! :D

FISHY BIRD-FLU ADVICE

Uncle Sam is advising people to store canned tuna and powdered milk under their beds to be ready for an avian-flu outbreak.

"What we're talking about here is preparedness, and preparedness saves lives," said Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt, who made the recommendation over the weekend in Cheyenne, Wyo.

Addressing the Wyoming Pandemic Flu Summit, the nation's health chief said, "When you go to the store and buy three cans of tuna fish, buy a fourth and put it under the bed. When you go to the store to buy milk, buy powdered milk and put that under the bed."

Leavitt also said people should try to accumulate up to a six-week supply of food, water, medicine and other essentials.

Preparations should be no different than for a two-week blizzard.

"It's just a good idea," Leavitt said. "It's called self-reliance."

His advice recalls a February 2003 recommendation from ex-Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge: Buy duct tape to seal up your home in the event of a chemical or biological strike.

The recommendation sparked a run on duct tape, but it was rescinded in a week after critics, such as Mayor Bloomberg, called it "preposterous."

http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/65242.htm

[NYer]

Word of warning re:Tuna. The mercury content in the White Tuna is significantly higher than in the Light Tuna. This has nothing to do with Avian Flu but if anyone out there is pregnant or contemplating pregnancy, you may wish to consider this.

[malum]

Has it been posted where the best source for purchasing Tamiflu would be? Please pardon if this is a repost.

[NYer]

Stockpiling Tamiflu May Not Help. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10851668/)

[al-Canine]

Five more nations hit by bird flu

MUMBAI, India (Reuters) -- Bird flu has been confirmed in four Asian nations and Denmark and may have killed turkeys in Israel, according to reports.

The latest outbreaks come as scientists outline the genetic changes needed to turn the virus into a human pandemic.

Afghanistan, India and Myanmar said tests had confirmed H5N1 caused recent outbreaks in birds, while Malaysia reported new cases in a wild bird and dead chickens.

Denmark, the latest European country affected, said tests showed a wild buzzard found south of Copenhagen had H5N1.

Israel suspects bird flu killed turkeys on two farms, although there were no test results yet, Agricultural Minister Zeev Boim said. Israel has so far been spared the virus.

In India, veterinary workers began killing more than 70,000 birds to try to control the latest outbreak there. Hundreds of people were also tested for fever.

"There is no time for niceties. The birds have to be killed as fast as possible," said Bijay Kumar, animal husbandry commissioner of the state of Maharashtra, where bird flu resurfaced this week in backyard poultry. (Full story)

Bird flu has spread with alarming speed in recent weeks across Europe, Africa and parts of Asia, leaving impoverished nations such as Afghanistan and Myanmar appealing for protective clothing and other basic equipment. (Full story)

Bird flu is hard for humans to catch, but people can contract it after coming into contact with infected birds.

U.S. scientists reported on Thursday that they had found two small mutations that the virus would need to make to evolve into a human pandemic form, and said field tests could be used to monitor for the changes.

The more bird flu spreads, the greater the fear the virus will evolve into a form that could easily pass between people, triggering a pandemic in which millions could die.

Three young women who died in recent weeks in Azerbaijan, on the crossroads between Europe and Asia, tested positive for H5N1 infection. If the World Health Organization confirms that, their deaths would take the human toll to more than 100.

In Serbia, a teenager from a bird flu-stricken area was put in isolation after developing a high fever.

"The boy is from the family where we found a rooster with clinical symptoms of bird flu," Syria's chief epidemiologist Predrag Kon told Reuters. He said the youth would be kept in isolation for 72 hours or until the possibility of bird flu had been ruled out.

U.S. market regulators said they were confident that a pandemic would not disrupt trading, if one came.

"We really believe that with proper planning, the markets can stay open, even with the most severe pandemic," said Alton Harvey, who heads contingency planning for the Securities and Exchange Commission.

"We think this is doable," he told a conference organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Because we have to -- we have no choice -- we will work it out. The markets will trade."

Swiss drug maker Roche AG said it was boosting output of its flu drug Tamiflu by one-third. Known generically as oseltamivir, it is one of the most effective treatments for people infected with H5N1, but in short supply.

Roche announced deals with external producers to boost capacity by 100 million treatments to a total of 400 million by the end of the year.

Dutch authorities launched a vaccination campaign for poultry. The Netherlands is one of the European Union's leading poultry producers.

So far the confirmed cases in Europe have been in wild birds, except for poultry in France, but producers worry that the virus could begin affecting flocks. Poultry prices have plunged in some countries.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/03/16/bird.flu.wrap.reut/index.html

[NYC]

also Israel has 1st confirmed bird flu now too http://www.gifs.net/Animation11/Animals/Birds/bird_2.gif

[NYer]

The Cost of Bird Flu Hysteria (http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/03/17/the_cost_of_bird_flu_hysteria/)

Dr. Marc Siegel, Associate Professor of Medicine at NYU, suggests Avian Flu may not live up to the hype.

the growing immunity to H5N1 worldwide may lessen the outbreak in humans even if the dreaded mutation does occur. As time passes, the chances of this mutation appear less rather than more likely. (The Spanish flu, by comparison, mutated before killing a lot of birds.)

If H5N1 takes hold in pigs and exchanges genetic material with another flu virus, the result is likely to be far less deadly. The swine flu fiasco of 1976 is an example of the damage that can be done from fear of a mutated virus that can theoretically affect us. More than 1,000 cases of paralysis occurred from a rushed vaccine given to more than 40 million people in response to a pandemic that never came.

Why provoke the public to see a potential pandemic in end-of-the-world terms? A pandemic simply means people in several areas having a disease at the same time -- but it may be hundreds rather than millions. The last flu pandemic, in 1968, killed 33,800 Americans, which is about the flu's toll in an average year. We don't need to panic in advance for that kind of pandemic.

Flu is worthy of our concern. But concern can lead to long term preparation whereas panic can be far more virulent and costly than the bird flu itself.

[Atlas]

Israel finds H5N1 in birds on two farms
Fri Mar 17, 2006 6:39 PM ET
By Yehuda Peretz

BEERSHEBA, Israel (Reuters) - Israel detected its first cases of H5N1 bird flu on Friday, saying the virus had killed thousands of turkeys and chickens on two farms.

Israeli authorities treated four people in hospital amid fears they had the virus, but Israeli media reported late on Friday the Health Ministry said none of the four poultry workers were suffering from bird flu.

Serbia said three children and a teenager from a bird flu affected area were in hospital after developing fever and flu-like symptoms.

Bird flu has spread with alarming speed in recent weeks across Europe, Africa and parts of Asia, stoking fears the virus could mutate into a form that could easily pass from one person to another, triggering a pandemic in which millions could die.

Three people who worked in poultry coops at Israeli farms where the virus was discovered were admitted to isolation units at Soroka Medical Center in the southern city of Beersheba.

A fourth worker who had also been in contact with turkeys at a farm about 70 km (45 miles) further north near the town of Kiryat Gat was admitted to hospital in Ashkelon.

Two farms were confirmed to have infected poultry. Tests were being carried out on another two farms where H5N1 is suspected.

Agriculture Ministry officials said that starting on Sunday morning, tens of thousands of fowl in the infected areas and their surroundings would be culled and that the carcasses would be buried in underground pits.

In a rare act of cooperation, Israel was also testing dead fowl found in the West Bank and Gaza on behalf of the Palestinian Authority to try to control the spread of the virus.

SERBIAN CHILDREN

The four youngsters in hospital in Serbia come from a southwestern area close to the Bosnian border, where there was a suspected case of the deadly H5N1 strain in a cockerel.

"Three children were admitted to hospital today displaying symptoms of respiratory infection," Serbia's chief epidemiologist Predrag Kon told Reuters.

"Two of them have signs of a viral infection. All three are coming from the outbreak zone and came into contact with infected poultry."

A teenager put into isolation on Thursday after developing fever was also moved to hospital.

Although it is hard to catch, people can contract bird flu after coming into contact with infected birds. The World Health Organization (WHO) says at least 98 people have died from H5N1 so far.

Three women who died in Azerbaijan recently are also thought to be bird flu victims, but the WHO is awaiting the results of further tests before confirming the cause of deaths.

The risk of human infection means people must wear protective clothing when culling birds in areas where H5N1 has broken out.

In Afghanistan, where bird flu was confirmed on Thursday, a lack of protective suits is delaying efforts to stop its spread, an Agriculture Ministry official said.

In further evidence of bird flu continuing to spread, Sweden confirmed it had found the H5 virus in a duck on a game farm in the east of the country, the European Union said.

Bird flu has shaken poultry markets around the world as consumers have lost their appetites for chicken, with some countries reporting a drop in sales of up to 70 percent.

The EU banned poultry imports from Israel after the discovery of H5N1 there, the EU's executive Commission said.

(For more stories, pictures and video on bird flu see http://today.reuters.com/News/GlobalCoverage.aspx?type=globalNews) (Additional reporting by Asian and European bureaux)


http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-03-17T233857Z_01_N12232814_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU.xml

[NYer]

U.S. study defines two clear bird flu strains

The H5N1 strain of bird flu in humans has evolved into two separate strains, U.S. researchers reported on Monday, which could complicate developing a vaccine and preventing a pandemic.

One strain, or clade, made people sick in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand in 2003 and 2004 and a second, a cousin of the first, caused the disease in people in Indonesia in 2004.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N2012779.htm

Ugh ...

[al-Canine]

Interesting article dealing with potential H5N1 in the USA food chain

Poultry Producers Prepare for Avian Flu in U.S.

By MELANIE WARNER | The New York Times

The deadly strain of avian flu has not been found anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, but Mark Holden, a chicken grower for Tyson Foods in Ellijay, Ga., is not taking any chances.

Every seven weeks a group of his chickens is tested before the birds are sent to be slaughtered. All people who enter or leave the chicken houses must walk through disinfecting baths. And visitors and workers must wear plastic booties over their shoes.

"Even though we don't have any outbreak now, we want to take all the precautions we can to protect our product," said Mr. Holden, who has been in the chicken business for 10 years and lives across the street from one of his chicken houses.

Poultry producers and restaurants doubt that their chickens will be infected by avian flu or that people would catch the virus even if there were contamination. But they are concerned that if the virus gets to the United States, people will eat less chicken, simply out of fear. And they are revving up big plans to be prepared.

In Senate testimony earlier this month, Michael Leavitt, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, declared that it was "just a matter of time" before birds infected with the virus found their way to the United States.

The stakes are enormous. United States poultry producers like Tyson, Pilgrim's Pride and Gold Kist sell 26 billion pounds of chicken each year. Restaurant chains — chief among them McDonald's, KFC and Wendy's — sell 45 percent of that.

Sales of chicken are growing. Over the last 10 years, consumption of chicken has increased by 22 percent, while beef consumption has remained flat, according to the Department of Agriculture.

If Europe and Asia are any indication, chicken sales could take quite a hit. In February, after avian flu was discovered in wild swans, poultry consumption declined 70 percent in Italy. In France, sales are down 30 percent since avian flu hit a turkey farm last month. In some areas of India, sales are down 40 percent since last month's discovery of avian flu in chickens.

These declines came even though none of the 175 human cases of avian flu confirmed by the World Health Organization since 2003 resulted from eating poultry.

Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization, said most of the cases of humans contracting avian flu have been from people coming into direct contact with infected poultry, though one case in Vietnam appears to have been a result of someone drinking infected duck blood.

Public health officials consider it unlikely that people will catch the virus from eating chicken. Chicken producers say that any sick birds would immediately be destroyed and would not enter the market. While the deadly strain of avian flu, called H5N1, now hitting Europe and Asia can reside in poultry meat, the virus is killed by the temperatures normally used to cook poultry.

Nonetheless, a Harvard School of Public Health nationwide telephone survey of 1,043 adults in January found that 46 percent of respondents who eat chicken said they would stop eating it if avian flu hit the United States poultry industry.

In October, Yum Brands, which owns KFC, told investors that, based on its experiences with avian flu in China, it estimated that in the worst situation, chicken sales would drop 10 percent to 20 percent if there were widespread concerns about avian flu.

Chicken processors and restaurant chains are already working feverishly to minimize any sales declines. Companies are working on communications strategies that can be set into motion at a moment's notice. These plans deal with avian flu in birds and not the feared hypothetical mutation of the virus into a human-to-human form. Future mutations could make avian flu contagious among humans, and possibly generate a pandemic.

Tyson, Pilgrim's Pride, KFC, Chick-fil-A and Popeyes Chicken and Biscuits all say they have formed internal avian flu task forces that meet regularly and include top executives and leaders from different departments. These executives have been meeting with government health officials, discussing what information should go on the companies' Web sites and when, and devising sales loss projections.

Popeyes Chicken and Biscuits, the country's No. 3 chicken chain behind KFC and Chick-fil-A, said its task force met weekly, often in conjunction with the Ledlie Group, an Atlanta-based crisis management agency. KFC said that it had created TV and print ads aimed at convincing people that eating fully cooked chicken was safe. The ad campaign, which was produced by Creative Alliance, an agency in Louisville, Ky., where Yum Brands is based, is ready to go if a crisis strikes.

"It's on the shelf collecting dust," said Jonathan Blum, a Yum spokesman.

Tyson, the country's largest chicken producer, is working on an ad campaign that will run if chicken sales decline, or if consumers start to get nervous.

McDonald's, the country's largest restaurant buyer of chicken, said it had been working on avian flu contingency plans, but declined to discuss details.

At many chain restaurants, including McDonald's, chicken has helped bolster sales more than any other menu item. In presentations to analysts and investors, McDonald's has credited its new line of higher-priced premium chicken sandwiches and its chicken-topped premium salads with increasing sales at outlets in the United States that have been open for more than a year.

Arby's, which is known for its roast beef sandwiches but gets 15 percent of its sales from chicken products, said it was spending more money than it had for any other new product to promote its new line of so-called chicken naturals. Chicken naturals are all chicken, with no added water or chemicals.

Some analysts think avian flu in birds, like mad cow disease in beef, may turn out to be a nonissue for consumers. Since mad cow was first discovered in the United States in late 2003, beef consumption has remained constant, according to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association.

"In the U.S. I think we generally have a greater trust in the government to ensure food safety than they do in Europe and Asia," said John Glass, an analyst at CIBC World Markets. "I'd be surprised if U.S. consumers really react to this."

But some in the chicken industry worry that avian flu will be much more frightening to consumers than mad cow. "I get asked about it all the time," said Steve Gold, vice president for marketing at Murray's Chicken, a producer of humanely raised chicken. "I think people have this idea that it's going to be like Alfred Hitchcock with all these birds flying into their community and everyone getting sick."

Mr. Gold notes that unlike mad cow, avian flu is highly contagious among birds and has the potential to travel long distances in unpredictable patterns.

He and others in the chicken industry are busy honing a message that the nation's chicken populations are well protected from wild, migratory birds that may be the initial carriers of the disease.

A Web site set up by the National Chicken Council, the National Turkey Federation and the Egg Safety Center (www.avianinfluenzainfo.com) promotes the industry's modern system of enclosed, confined chicken growing as an effective line of defense against the spread of avian flu.

The 20,000 to 24,000 birds that reside in a single growing house on the average industrial chicken farm lack access to the outdoors, or even to sunlight — something that has long drawn criticism from animal welfare activists and has helped fuel the growth in free-range and humanely produced chicken. The virtue of isolating chickens, said Richard Lobb, a spokesman for the National Chicken Council, is that no chicken is likely to come into contact with wild birds that may be infected.

"Things here are not like they are in Asia where chickens are running around outdoors in people's backyards," Mr. Lobb said. "It's much more controlled."

He added that while thousands of free-roaming and backyard chickens were infected in Thailand in 2004, none of the country's large-scale, commercial chicken flocks in enclosed facilities were hit.

Mr. Lobb said chickens sold as free-range or organic, meaning they are allowed access to the outdoors, may be more susceptible to avian flu transmission, but this group represents less than 1 percent of the chicken production.

The Egg Safety Center said that consumers should not worry about eggs being infected with the avian flu virus because sick hens either stop laying eggs or lay poor-quality eggs that would not be acceptable for sale.

Some government officials said that if avian flu arrived on United States shores, it would probably be from migratory birds.

Susan Haseltine, assistant director for biology at the United States Geological Survey and an expert on bird migration, said government scientists had their eyes on the bird pathways from Asia to Alaska. "One species with high potential is the pintail," Ms. Haseltine said. "It migrates from Alaska to the southern U.S., to the Gulf Coast and Southern California. They have the ability to fly long distances."

The Department of Agriculture said that since 2000, 12,000 tests had been done on birds in western Alaska and none had been found with the deadly version of avian flu. Ms. Haseltine said there was little bird passage across the Atlantic from Europe.

Other experts say that avian flu is more likely to reach the United States through the illicit trade of poultry from infected countries. Importing birds or poultry meat from countries that have had outbreaks of avian flu is banned, but Rob Fergus, science coordinator for the National Audubon Society, said there were probably instances of smuggled products. "There are a lot of holes in biosecurity in our ports. I'm much more concerned about poultry shipments than wild birds," he said.

There is, of course, still the small chance that North America may be somehow spared from avian flu. But companies like Chick-fil-A are not counting on that. "The question is not if, but when," said Don Perry, a spokesman for Chick-fil-A. "You can't put big nets in the sky to prevent birds from flying here."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/21/business/21poultry.html?

[NYer]

The Chicken was unavailable for comment.

http://www.narellecreative.com/images/kgbchick.jpg

[Dora]

The latest victim of avian influenza:
http://photobucket.com/albums/b180/CJBQ/bf.jpg
(Sorry AC - I just couldn't resist. Feel free to delete it.) :happy_11:

[NYer]

The latest victim of avian influenza:


http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f218/sono001/CHICKENDANCE.gif

[NYer]

Roger Simon points to this Ray of Hope. (http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ny-hsbird0323,0,6553458.story?coll=ny-leadhealthnews-headlines)

The avian influenza virus tends to penetrate so deeply in the respiratory tract it cannot be easily spread through coughing and sneezing, observations that may explain why there has been only negligible human-to-human spread, scientists report today.

To be easily spread from one person to another, the pathogen must first localize itself in the upper reaches of the "bronchial tree," where droplets can be propelled and sprayed.Virologist Yoshio Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin in Madison reports in the journal Nature today that only cells deep within the lungs possess the surface molecule -- the receptor -- to which the virus can dock and enter. Once inside the cell's inner labyrinths, the virus can commandeer cellular genes, using them to crank out scores of new viruses. While this scenario is potentially lethal, it is not ideal for disease transmission, Kawaoka said.

"We looked from the nasal mucosa all the way to the bottom of the lungs," Kawaoka said. "We examined eight people who had been infected with H5N1 and all of them had avian viral receptors in the lungs, but not in the upper portion of the lungs."

He said his findings provide a rationale for how H5N1 can replicate itself efficiently in the lungs, but rarely spread from one person to another.

Unfortunately, viral mutation remains an open question ...

[Bman]

Bird flu could reach Alaska in weeks

'Avian-flu index' is up 105% since last August

By Ciara Linnane, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:06 PM ET Mar 29, 2006


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. government officials monitoring the spread of avian influenza are expecting the first case to reach Alaska in about three weeks and to hit the West Coast by autumn, Prudential Equity Group said Wednesday.

The H5 pathogen has been confirmed in 51 or more countries, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health, causing the culling of millions of birds across Asia, Europe and, more recently, the Middle East.


The first cases in the U.S. won't necessarily make humans ill -- only the bird version of the disease is expected here, at least initially, said Kim Monk, a Prudential senior health-care-policy analyst.

"The virus might only spread bird to bird or, rarely, bird to human, and it may or may not ever mutate into a human-to-human virus," said Monk. "So for now, the only real threat is to the poultry industry."

More than 100 people have died since the H5 virus first occurred in Asia in 2003, most of them after direct contact with infected birds.

But scientists are worried the pathogen could mutate and become transmissible between humans, potentially creating a pandemic to rival the outbreak of Spanish Flu in 1918. That virus killed about 50 million people.
The Bush administration, like other governments, is bracing for a potential pandemic. It is seeking up to $7 billion to fund programs to develop and stock supplies of vaccines.

Among the companies most likely to benefit from the effort are Roche, the biggest manufacturer of Tamiflu; GlaxoSmithKline , which makes the antiviral Relenza; and makers of cell-based vaccines such as Chiron

A flu index

Trend Macroanalytics, a research firm serving institutional investors, has taken its analysis a step further and created an "avian-flu index" comprising 17 stocks in the health-care sector that can be expected to see a surge in demand for their products should the flu become a threat to humans.
The Trend Macroanalytics 'avian-flu index' comprises 17 stocks and is up 105% since it was created last August.

The index includes stocks like Embrex , a leader in "in ovo" technology for the poultry industry; Hemispherx , whose interferon inducer Ampligen is considered a strong candidate as a flu treatment, and BioCryst and Generex , which are both producing antivirals.

Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro, said the index has gained 105% since its inception last Aug. 31 and is up 40.5% so far in 2006.
Luskin said he considers the chance of mutation and a pandemic small.

"The reason why investors should buy these stocks, though, is because it is the vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics of the companies in this sector that are making sure the pandemic doesn't happen," he said.

"Lots of money will be spent by governments -- spent with these companies -- to be sure to prevent the worst case."

He likened the bird-flu situation to Y2K, when companies spent billions of dollars upgrading technology to ensure computers could cope with the switch to the new millennium. "The worst case didn't happen because people were warned," he recalled.

Among the companies outside the health-care sector that might attract a sales spurt from avian flu is Pall , which makes filtration systems that can also be used in vaccine production as well as breathing ventilators that can be used to discourage the spread of viruses such as SARS and certain flu strains.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1F67C352%2D55CE%2D4718%2D90A6%2 D04C9767A191D%7D&dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&link=&keyword=flu

[al-Canine]

U.S. Plan For Flu Pandemic Revealed

Multi-Agency Proposal Awaits Bush's Approval

President Bush is expected to approve soon a national pandemic influenza response plan that identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be the first vaccinated and expanding Internet capacity to handle what would probably be a flood of people working from their home computers.

The Treasury Department is poised to sign agreements with other nations to produce currency if U.S. mints cannot operate. The Pentagon, anticipating difficulties acquiring supplies from the Far East, is considering stockpiling millions of latex gloves. And the Department of Veterans Affairs has developed a drive-through medical exam to quickly assess patients who suspect they have been infected.

The document is the first attempt to spell out in some detail how the government would detect and respond to an outbreak, and continue functioning through what could be an 18-month crisis, which in a worst-case scenario could kill 1.9 million Americans. Bush was briefed on a draft of the implementation plan on March 17. He is expected to approve the plan within the week, but it continues to evolve, said several administration officials who have been working on it.

Still reeling from the ineffectual response to Hurricane Katrina, the White House is eager to show it could manage the medical, security and economic fallout of a major outbreak. In response to questions posed to several federal agencies, White House officials offered a briefing on the near-final version of its 240-page plan. When it is issued, officials intend to announce several vaccine manufacturing contracts to jump-start an industry that has declined in the past few decades.

The background briefing and on-the-record interviews with experts in and out of government reveal that some agencies are far along in preparing for a deadly outbreak. Others have yet to resolve basic questions, such as who is designated an essential employee and how the agency would cope if that person were out of commission.

"Most of the federal government right now is as ill-prepared as any part of society," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm said the administration has made progress but is nowhere near prepared for what he compared to a worldwide "12- to 18-month blizzard."

Many critical decisions remain to be made. Administration scientists are debating how much vaccine would be needed to immunize against a new strain of avian influenza, and they are weighing data that may alter their strategy on who should have priority for antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu and Relenza.

The new analysis, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that instead of giving medicine to first responders and health-care workers, as currently planned, it might be wiser to give the drugs to every person with symptoms and others in the same household, one senior administration official said.

The approach offers "some real hope for communities to put a dent in the amount of illness and death, if we go with that strategy," a White House official said.

Each year, about 36,000 Americans die from seasonal influenza. A worldwide outbreak, or pandemic, occurs when a potent new, highly contagious strain of the virus emerges. It is a far greater threat than annual flu because everyone is susceptible, and it would take as much as six months to develop a vaccine. The 1918 pandemic flu, the worst of the 20th century, is estimated to have killed more than 50 million people worldwide.

Alarm has risen because of the emergence of the most dangerous strain to appear in decades -- the H5N1 avian flu. It has primarily struck birds, but about 200 people worldwide have contracted the disease, and half have died. Experts project that the next pandemic -- depending on severity and countermeasures -- could kill 210,000 to 1.9 million Americans.

To keep the 1.8 million federal workers healthy and productive through a pandemic, the Bush administration would tap into its secure stash of medications, cancel large gatherings, encourage schools to close and shift air traffic controllers to the busier hubs -- probably where flu had not yet struck. Retired federal employees would be summoned back to work, and National Guard troops could be dispatched to cities facing possible "insurrection," said Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security.

The administration hopes to help contain the first cases overseas by rushing in medical teams and supplies. "If there is a small outbreak in a country, it may behoove us to introduce travel restrictions," Runge said, "to help stamp out that spark."

However, even an effective containment effort would merely postpone the inevitable, said Ellen P. Embrey, deputy assistant secretary for force health preparedness and readiness at the Pentagon. "Unfortunately, we believe the forest fire will burn before we are able to contain it overseas, and it will arrive on our shores in multiple locations," she said.

As Katrina illustrated, a central issue would be "who is ultimately in charge and how the agencies will be coordinated," said former assistant surgeon general Susan Blumenthal. The Department of Health and Human Services would take the lead on medical aspects, but Homeland Security would have overall authority, she noted. "How are those authorities going to come together?"

Essentially, the president would be in charge, the White House official replied. Bush is expected to adopt post-Katrina recommendations that a new interagency task force coordinate the federal response and a high-level Disaster Response Group resolve disputes among agencies or states. Neither entity has been created.

Analysts at the Government Accountability Office found that earlier efforts by the administration to plan for disasters were overly broad or simply sat on a shelf.

"Our biggest concern is whether an agency has a clear idea of what it absolutely has to do, no matter what," said Linda Koontz, director of information management issues at the GAO. "Some had three and some had 400 essential functions. We raised questions about whether 400 were really essential."

In several cases, agencies never trained for or rehearsed emergency plans, she said, causing concern that when disaster strikes, "people will be sitting there with a 500-page book in front of them."

The federal government -- as well as private businesses -- should expect as much as 40 percent of its workforce to be out during a pandemic, said Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program Office at HHS. Some will be sick or dead; others could be depressed, or caring for a loved one or staying at home to prevent spread of the virus. "The problem is, you never know which 40 percent will be out," he said.

The Agriculture Department, with 4 million square feet of office space in metropolitan Washington alone, would likely stagger shifts, close cafeterias and cancel face-to-face meetings, said Peter Thomas, the acting assistant secretary for administration.

The department has bought masks, gloves and hand sanitizers, and has hired extra nurses and compiled a list of retired employees who could be temporarily rehired, he said. A 24-hour employee hotline would provide medical advice and work updates. And as it did during Katrina, Agriculture has contingency plans for meeting the payrolls of several federal departments totaling 600,000 people.

Similarly, the Commerce Department has identified its eight priority functions, including the ability to assign emergency communication frequencies, and how those could be run with 60 percent of its normal staff.

Operating the largest health-care organization in the nation, the VA has directed its 153 hospitals to stock up on other medications, equipment, food and water, said chief public health officer Lawrence Deyton. "But it's a few days' worth, not enough to last months," he added.

Anticipating that some nurses may be home caring for family members -- and to reduce the number of patients descending on its hospitals -- the VA intends to put nurses on its toll-free hotline to help veterans decide whether they need professional medical care. At many VA hospitals, nurses and doctors would stand in the parking lots armed with thermometers and laptop computers to do drive-through exams. Modeled after its successful drive-through vaccination program last fall, the parking-lot triage is intended to keep the flow of patients moving rapidly, Deyton said.

Much of the federal government's plan relies on quick distribution of medications and vaccine. The Strategic National Stockpile has 5.1 million courses of Tamiflu on hand. The goal is to secure 21 million doses of Tamiflu and 4 million doses of Relenza by the end of this year, and a total of 51 million by late 2008.

In addition, the administration will pay one-quarter of the cost of antivirals bought by states. The Pentagon, VA, USDA and Transportation Department have their own stockpiles -- and most intend to buy more as it becomes available.

Blumenthal, the former assistant surgeon general, questioned why two years after Congress approved a $5.6 billion BioShield program to develop new drugs and vaccines, so little progress has been made.

Homeland Security's Runge has a different concern: "One of the scariest thoughts is, if this country has successfully developed a vaccine within six months of an outbreak or our supply of antivirals is greater, there may be a rush into the United States for those things."

And even if those fears do not materialize, officials have warned that the federal preparations go only so far. Much is left to the states, communities and even individuals.

"Any community that fails to prepare -- with the expectation that the federal government can come to the rescue -- will be tragically wrong," HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt said in a speech April 10. The administration is posting information on the Internet at http://www.pandemicflu.gov/ .

The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/15/AR2006041500901.html)

[snoop]

Are there any reliable projections on the economic impact to the poultry industry and thus the USA? I search and only find opinions and nothing with supporting numbers.

[NYer]

Have not seen any Industry numbers ...

However, some interesting Bird Flu stuff Here. (http://baldilocks.typepad.com/baldilocks/2006/04/a_news_report_a.html)

[pixikill]

Bird flu found in dead chickens
From correspondents in London
April 27, 2006
DEAD chickens on a farm in eastern England have tested positive for bird flu, the British government said today.
First tests suggest they had the H7 strain of the disease, and not the H5N1 strain which has killed more than 100 people since late 2003, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said in a statement.
"Further tests are being carried out to determine the strain of the virus and more will be known tomorrow," it said.

[NYer]

Bird Flu Vaccine Stops H5N1 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/02/AR2006050200385.html), Maybe Others.

[NYer]

The Mutant Chickens (http://www.slate.com/id/2141277/fr/rss/) are coming. Gregg Easterbrook writes on the silliness of Bird Flu Panic.

All this for a disease that since 2003 has killed 113 people worldwide. During the same span, about 4 million have died worldwide in traffic accidents. The number of these deaths is rising steadily in most nations, with road fatalities on track to become the world's third-leading cause of death—that is, traffic accidents look exactly like a pandemic. Also since 2003, at least 6 million people worldwide have died of diarrheal diseases, with about 1.5 million of those deaths attributed to rotavirus, which has spread in pandemic fashion. Yet the panic button has been pushed only for bird flu. Why?



More ... and have a nice bowl of chicken soup.

[al-Canine]

Avian Flu Wanes in Asian Nations It First Hit Hard

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

Even as it crops up in the far corners of Europe and Africa, the virulent bird flu that raised fears of a human pandemic has been largely snuffed out in the parts of Southeast Asia where it claimed its first and most numerous victims.

Health officials are pleased and excited. "In Thailand and Vietnam, we've had the most fabulous success stories," said Dr. David Nabarro, chief pandemic flu coordinator for the United Nations.

Vietnam, which has had almost half of the human cases of A(H5N1) flu in the world, has not seen a single case in humans or a single outbreak in poultry this year. Thailand, the second-hardest-hit nation until Indonesia recently passed it, has not had a human case in nearly a year or one in poultry in six months.

Encouraging signs have also come from China, though they are harder to interpret.

These are the second positive signals that officials have seen recently in their struggle to prevent avian flu from igniting a human pandemic. Confounding expectations, birds making the spring migration north from Africa have not carried the virus into Europe.

Dr. Nabarro and other officials warn that it would be highly premature to declare any sort of victory. The virus has moved rapidly across continents and is still rampaging in Myanmar, Indonesia and other countries nearby. It could still hitchhike back in the illegal trade in chicks, fighting cocks or tropical pets, or in migrating birds.

But this sudden success in the former epicenter of the epidemic is proof that aggressive measures like killing infected chickens, inoculating healthy ones, protecting domestic flocks and educating farmers can work, even in very poor countries.

Dr. Nabarro said he was "cautious in interpreting these shifts in patterns" because too little is known about how the disease spreads.

Other officials agreed.

"To say the disease is 'wiped out' there is probably too strong, too positive," said Dr. Wantanee Kalpravidh, chief of flu surveillance in Southeast Asia for the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, which fights animal diseases. The governments of Thailand and Vietnam "believe they got rid of it," she said, "but they also believe that it might be coming back at any time."

Very different tactics led to success in the two countries.

While Vietnam began vaccinating all its 220 million chickens last summer, Thailand did not because it has a large poultry export industry, and other nations would have banned its birds indefinitely. (Vaccines can mask the virus instead of killing it.)

Instead, Thailand culled wide areas around infected flocks, compensated farmers generously and deputized a volunteer in every village to report sick chickens.

It vaccinates fighting cocks, which can be worth thousands of dollars, and even issues them passports with their vaccination records so they can travel, Dr. Nabarro said.

Government inspectors sample birds everywhere; in February, Thailand reported that samples from 57,000 birds had come back negative.

According to Dr. Klaus Stöhr, a flu specialist at the World Health Organization, Thailand and Vietnam also delivered the antiviral drug Tamiflu to even the smallest regional hospitals and told doctors to treat all flu patients even before laboratory diagnoses could be made.

Dr. Nabarro particularly praised the leaders of the two countries for ordering high-level officials — deputy prime ministers — to fight the disease, and for making sure that enough cash to entice farmers to hand over their birds for culling flowed down official channels without being siphoned off.

Hints suggest that the disease is also being beaten back in China, the country where it is assumed to have begun. International officials tend to greet official public health reports from China skeptically, in part because it concealed the outbreak of the SARS virus there for months. It did not officially report any bird cases for years, even though many scientists contend the virus incubated there between its first appearance in humans in Hong Kong in 1997 and the current human outbreak, which began in Vietnam in 2003.

Some top Chinese officials have blamed the reluctance of local officials to report bad news to Beijing. Dr. Nabarro said he recently met a vice premier "who made it clear that they are absolutely determined to get the fullest possible cooperation from provincial authorities."

China's reported human cases have remained low: 8 last year and 10 this year.

Perhaps more important, its poultry cases — which lead to human cases and increase the risk of a mutant pandemic strain — seem to be dropping.

According to the World Health Organization, China said it had outbreaks in 16 provinces in 2004. In 2005, it reported outbreaks in only 12 provinces, but one in November was so large that 2.5 million birds were culled to contain it.

After that, the Agriculture Ministry announced that it would vaccinate every domestic bird in China, which raises and consumes 14 billion chickens, ducks and geese each year. The official news agency reported about the same time that a fake flu vaccine, possibly with live virus in it, might have spread the disease.

Dr. Stöhr, who is in charge of W.H.O. flu vaccine efforts, said he was told by Chinese agriculture officials that the country was now producing 46 billion doses of poultry vaccine a year, and was supplying vaccines to Vietnam.

China's most recent monthly reports describe much smaller outbreaks than were previously common: findings of a few dead wild birds and culls of 126,000 birds in one spot and 16,000 in another, for example.

"We are hopeful that China has turned the corner," Dr. Nabarro said.

In Cambodia and Laos, which separate Thailand and Vietnam, the situation is vague.

Laos has reported no human cases and last reported poultry outbreaks two years ago. Cambodia's reported human cases dropped to two this year, from four last year. No poultry outbreaks were reported, but surveillance is so spotty that some must have occurred and gone unnoticed, Dr. Kalpravidh said, because the country's six human victims were infected by poultry.

Cambodia was slow to compensate farmers for their birds because of problems with corruption in a previous cash-for-guns program.

Health specialists generally agree that there is little clear chance of infected birds landing in the United States.

Where the Southeast Asian governments have taken action, however, the risk of the virus returning is ever present, Dr. Nabarro said.

For example, he said, it probably exists in Vietnam in Muscovy ducks, which can harbor the virus but do not get sick, and it has turned up in isolated birds in open-air markets near the Chinese border. (Single birds do not constitute an outbreak.) Since Chinese farmers can get three times as much for a chicken in Vietnam as they can at home, the temptation to smuggle persists.

"Tomorrow, the whole thing could change again," Dr. Nabarro said. "We need to be on the alert at all times."

5 Cases Confirmed in Indonesia

JAKARTA, Indonesia, May 13 (Reuters) — Local tests have confirmed that three Indonesians who died in the past week had avian flu, a Health Ministry official said Saturday.

Authorities have sent blood and swab samples of the three people — all from one family — to a World Health Organization-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong. Local tests are not considered definitive.

A toddler and a 25-year-old man from the same North Sumatra family also tested positive for bird flu, but they are still alive, said Nyoman Kandun, a director general at the Health Ministry.

He did not say whether they had had any contact with sick fowl, the usual mode of transmission of the virus to humans.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/14/world/asia/14flu.html?

[NYer]

David Letterman:

"Top Surprises in ABC's Bird Flu Movie":

Thanks to sponsorship deal, flu is cured by delicious taste of Dr. Pepper;
Humans attacked by pigeons with tire irons;
20% of population comes down with less dangerous "bird hiccups";
Every time someone says, "chicken," all the characters chug a beer;
Every single person in the world ends up at General Hospital;
The big villain? Larry Bird;
Hilarious scene where the guy playing President Bush actually solves the problem;
Sole survivors Michael Jackson and Rosie O'Donnell are forced to repopulate the earth.

[al-Canine]

Well, so much for the light-hearted stuff.... this sounds a little ominous.

Disease trackers investigating possible human-to-human transmission

Seven Indonesian Bird Flu Cases Linked to Patients

All seven people infected with bird flu in a cluster of Indonesian cases can be linked to other patients, according to disease trackers investigating possible human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus.

A team of international experts has been unable to find animals that might have infected the people, the World Health Organization said in a statement today. In one case, a 10-year- old boy who caught the virus from his aunt may have passed it to his father, the first time officials have seen evidence of a three-person chain of infection, an agency spokeswoman said. Six of the seven people have died.

Almost all of the 218 cases of H5N1 infections confirmed by the WHO since late 2003 can be traced to direct contact with sick or dead birds. Strong evidence of human-to-human transmission may prompt the global health agency to convene a panel of experts and consider raising the pandemic alert level, said Maria Cheng, an agency spokeswoman.

``Considering the evidence and the size of the cluster, it's a possibility,'' Cheng said in a telephone interview. ``It depends on what we're dealing with in Indonesia. It's an evolving situation.''

The 32-year-old father in the cluster of cases on the island of Sumatra was ``closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection,'' The WHO said in its statement. Three others, including the sole survivor in the group, spent a night in a ``small'' room with the boy's aunt, who later died and was buried before health officials could conduct tests for the H5N1 virus.

`Directly Linked'

``All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness,'' the WHO said.

While investigators have been unable to rule out human-to- human transmission in the Sumatran cluster, they continue to search for other explanations for how the infections arose, the WHO statement said.

Health experts are concerned that if H5N1 gains the ability to spread easily among people, it may set off a lethal global outbreak of flu. While some flu pandemics are relatively mild, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

So far, studies of the Sumatran outbreak and genetic analyses of the virus don't indicate the virus has undergone major changes, Cheng said. Scientists at WHO-affiliated labs in the U.S. and Hong Kong found no evidence that the Indonesian strain of H5N1 has gained genes from pigs or humans that might change its power or spreading ability, WHO said.

Mutations

``These viruses mutate all the time and it's difficult to know what the mutations mean,'' Cheng said.

Health officials earlier found strong evidence of direct human-to-human spread of H5N1 in Thailand in 2004. Scientists reported in the Jan. 27, 2005, issue of the New England Journal of Medicine that the H5N1 virus probably spread from an 11-year- old girl in Thailand to her aunt and mother, killing the mother and daughter. People who had more casual contact with the girl didn't become infected.

In the Sumatran cluster, close, direct contact with a severely ill person was also needed for spread, Cheng said. Preliminary findings from the investigation indicate that the woman who died, considered to be the initial case, was coughing frequently while the three others spent the night in the same room. One of the three, a second brother, is the sole survivor. The other two, her sons, died.

``It looks like the same behavior pattern'' of close contact and caretaking during illness with the bird flu virus, Cheng said. To raise the level of pandemic alert ``it would have to be transmissible from more casual contact.''

General Community

The Indonesian Ministry of Health and international scientists are continuing their investigation to trace the origins of the infections, the WHO said in its statement.

"Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community,'' the WHO said. "To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia

[NYer]

One small isolated cluster does not a pandemic make ... That being said, forewarned is forearmed.

[NYer]

The WHO:

"We've taken samples and we've looked at them and the virus is not mutating. It shows no sign of the ability to transmit more easily between chickens and humans and no sign of any ability to transmit more effectively from human to human."

http://news.pajamasmedia.com/2006/05/24/8820961_WHO_Warns_About_.shtml

[al-Canine]

Indonesia puts villagers on home quarantine (http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-05-25T125235Z_01_JAK176767_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU-INDONESIA.xml&archived=False)

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Health experts have asked 33 people in a remote Indonesian village to quarantine themselves at home after the H5N1 bird flu virus killed as many as seven members of a family there earlier this month.

Epidemiologists have failed to track down the source of infection in Kubu Simbelang village in north Sumatra and the World Health Organisation said this week limited human-to-human transmission between family members might have occurred.

"There are 33 people identified as close contacts. We've asked them to observe home quarantine. That's something they are willing to do to protect themselves and their families," said Dick Thompson, spokesman for the WHO.

Meanwhile, local tests have confirmed an Indonesian child from the city of Bandung died of bird flu, a senior health ministry official said on Thursday.

Local results on bird flu cases are not considered definitive and need confirmation from the World Health Organisation.

I Nyoman Kandun, director-general of communicable disease control, told Reuters local tests have found two siblings admitted to hospital earlier this week in the West Java capital of Bandung was a positive H5N1 case.

"The two of them are now positive," he told Reuters in a telephone text message.

The younger sibling, a 10-year old girl, died on Tuesday. The condition of the 18-year-old brother was not immediately clear.

But attention is still primarily focussed on the Sumatran cluster, the largest to date.

Tests on samples taken from chickens, ducks and pigs -- animals that are most susceptible to the virus -- in Kubu Simbelang village and another nearby area have proven inconclusive.

Fuelling the suspicion hanging over person-to-person transmission is the unusually long time lag of 15 days between the first and the last person in the cluster falling ill.

The incubation period for the H5N1 is usually no more than seven days and if the family had been exposed to the same source, they would all have fallen ill at about the same time.

"You want to look at the dates of onset of the disease. If they are close together they may have had the same exposure," Thompson said.

The WHO has, however stressed that even if human-to-human transmission did occur, it was in a very limited way and the infection has not spread beyond the family cluster. In addition, scientific evidence has shown the virus has not mutated into one that can be easily passed among people.

H5N1 remains difficult for humans to catch, but experts fear it could evolve into a form passes easily from human to human, causing a pandemic that could kill millions.

[Klaus]

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10005969.shtml

WHO does not plan to raise avian/bird flu alert level in response to Indonesian cluster
By Finfacts Team
May 24, 2006, 15:19


The World Health Organization has decided not to convene a group of international health experts in the next few days to consider raising the pandemic-alert level due to an unusually large family cluster of bird-flu victims in Indonesia, a WHO spokeswoman said today.

Evidence that the bird-flu virus has evolved into distinct subgroups is challenging the wisdom of relying on a single strain of the disease to make a vaccine. A study published last February in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and produced by up to 30 researchers, analysed thousands of bird-flu samples taken from across southern China. The authors says that control measures in China, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have been less effective, allowing the establishment of virus endemicity and repeated interspecies transmission to humans. They say that results indicate that H5N1 virus has been introduced into Vietnam from southern China on multiple occasions; in 2001, 2003, and 2005. Therefore, control of this regional epizootic and its attendant pandemic threat requires that the source of virus in southern China be contained. --- Dr. Robert G. Webster one of the co-authors of the study, is a leading American influenza expert.



It is unlikely that WHO will raise the alert level in the immediate future, said Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the organization in Geneva. "We haven't seen evidence from Indonesia that the disease is passing easily from human to human," Ms. Cheng said.

The family cluster in an Indonesian village, where seven family members have now died, has raised concerns that the virus may be able to pass directly between people, although so far there is no sign that it has mutated or even spread beyond the family. Scientists have been on the lookout for such a broader, faster transmission that might signal that the virus had evolved into a form that could spark a pandemic, possibly killing millions.

The Indonesian cluster's unprecedented size, combined with the fact that the virus may have spread directly from a woman to her nephew and then from the nephew to his father, has raised the level of concern among health officials on guard against any sign the virus might be changing.

[al-Canine]

WHO Puts Bird Flu Drug Maker on Alert

May 27 (foodconsumer.org) - In response to a possible case of human-to-human transmission of bird flu in Indonesia, the World Health Organization (WHO) said Saturday that for the first time it had asked Roche, the Swiss drugmaker, to get ready to ship anti-viral drug Tamiflu to Indonesia, Reuters reported. With millions of treatment doses in stock, the company said it has been prepared to ship it at any time to anywhere.

The WHO put Roche on alert for stockpile of the drug hours later after its office in Jakarta was notified on Monday by the Indonesian Health Ministry of the current situation about the cluster of bird flu cases, The Associated Press cited Jules Pieters, director of WHO's rapid response and containment group as saying.

The WHO has not yet requested any Tamiflu shipped. Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the organization said "We have not asked that anything be sent, and nothing from Roche has been sent." Both Cheng and Pieters said that it is a standard procedure to ensure drugs were available for shipment when clusters of infections occur.

"Whenever there is a cluster, we contact Roche just to let them know that if we need to send the stockpile that they should be ready to do so," Maria Cheng was quoted as saying.

But news reports say that earlier clusters of bird flu, all smaller than the latest Indonesian cluster, have not triggered any WHO alerts for stockpiles of anything.

Roche spokesman Baschi Duerr said the stockpile of as many as 3 million treatment courses kept in Europe and the United States is ready to be shipped at any time to any place. Some news reports say a precautionary 9,500 doses of Tamiflu along with protective gear was already flown into Indonesia on Friday in response to the possible transmission of H5N1 among humans.

The Indonesian cluster in which as many as eight family members may have been killed by the H5N1 virus this month has gained much attention from news media. Epidemiologists and health officials have no idea about the exact source of infections. Human-to-human transmission seems likely in the family, the largest among seven clusters ever recorded. But how the initial or index case in the Kubu Simbelang cluster was caused is subject to everybody's guess.

In a latest development in Indonesia, five more cases of bird flu including three fatal cases, which locally tested positive for H5N1, were confirmed by a WHO-accredited laboratory in Hong Kong. In a latest case involving 2 siblings, it was confirmed that the 10-year-old girl died of the virus, Nyoman Kandun, director-general of communicable disease control said Saturday. She likely got the virus from sick poultry in her village in Bandung in west Java. Her 18-year old brother with symptoms similar to that in the girl also died, but the WHO lab could not confirm his death was due to the virus. Local officials suggested the Hong Kong laboratory must have made some mistake.

The other two confirmed deaths of bird flu occurred to a 39-year-old man in Jakarta and the 32-year-old man in the North Sumatra cluster, who was among the six members of the extended family who got infected with H5N1 and died. The three new deaths bring to 36 the total fatality from the virus in Indonesia, compared to 42 in Vietnam and 127 worldwide.

Another death in the Kubu Simbelang family occurred to a woman who was the first to die, but no test for the virus was possible because no specimen was taken before her burial. Although she was not counted officially as a case of bird flu, the fact that the woman showed bird flu symptoms prompted experts to believe she was infected with H5N1. Because of this, she was actually viewed as the source of other infections in the family. So far, officials have failed to identify the source of the initial infection, but believed that the woman acquired the virus from some sick chickens at a local market where she as a grower and seller of produce conducted business often. Or she might use contaminated chicken feces as a garden fertilizer, according to WHO officials.

Confirmed by the Hong Kong Laboratory were also two cases of H5N1 infection, one is an 18-year-old shuttlecock maker, who used to handle feathers in a factory in Surabaya in east Java, whereas another case involved a 43-year-ol in Jakarta, Both are alive with their conditions unknown, The Associated Press reported.

Although the virus could have spread among the Indonesian family members, the WHO has stressed tests indicated that the virus had not mutated into a type that can be easily passed among people, which would potentially trigger a deadly flu p andemic, killing millions of people worldwide.

Evidence also suggested that the transmission of H5N1 in the family is likely due to some genetic susceptibility among the blood relatives. Two wives in the family have been repeatedly free of bird flu while others got infected and died. In four earlier clusters of bird flu, WHO observed only direct blood relatives- not spouses- have gotten infected.

Indonesia, suffering the second largest number of deaths from bird flu in the world, seems to have lost control of H5N1. Critics say the government has not done enough to curb the spreading of the virus in the country with tens of thousands of islands where residents have refused to cull poultry in affected areas without compensations from the government. Mass slaughters are viewed as an effective way to protect against the spread of the virus.

The latest cluster of deaths has drawn widespread attention from all over the world, forcing the Indonesian government to intensify its protection against bird flu. With the resistance of local residents to outside assistance and their reluctance to cooperate, the government threatens that anyone would be put in jail if he dares to interfere in its effect in containing the disease.

source (http://www.foodconsumer.org/777/8/printer_Update_2_WHO_Puts_Bird_Flu_Drug_Maker_on_A lert.shtml)

[NYer]

Tamiflu resistance was reported last year ... so will the Tamiflu help the victims or the virus? Time will tell.

[NYer]

On a Lighter Note (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/06/060602-birdflu-dance.html)

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/06/images/060602-birdflu-dance_big.jpg

This isn't your grandfather's Funky Chicken.

A local deejay is attempting to lighten the mood after the arrival of the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) in early May. Twenty-one-year-old DJ Lewis has invented a wacky bird flu dance that is sweeping nightclubs in the West African country's major city of Abidjan (Ivory Coast map).

The infectious craze has hundreds of people shaking, flapping their arms, and clucking on the dance floor—an imitation of chickens' death throes when they are culled to stop the virus from spreading.

"I created the dance to bring happiness to the hearts of Africans and to chase away fear—the fear of eating chicken," Lewis told the BBC.

"If we kill all our chickens and poultry, our cousins in the village will become poor. So I created the bird flu dance to put joy back into our hearts."

[Klaus]

From West Africa to Eastern Europe...




http://www.news24.com/News24/World/Bird_flu/0,,2-10-1959_1937498,00.html


1 000s quarantined in Bucharest
22/05/2006 22:54 - (SA)




Bucharest - About 13 000 people were quarantined in the Romanian capital on Monday as troops and police sealed off streets in response to the city's second bird-flu outbreak, said officials.

The mayor of the southern fourth district, Adrian Inimaroiu, said residents would be cut off and all businesses in the area would be closed during the quarantine period of up to three weeks.

The move came after the agriculture ministry earlier on Monday confirmed the presence of the H5 bird-flu virus in dead chickens found in the neighbourhood, the latest of dozens of outbreaks of avian flu in Romania this spring.

Inimaroiu said, urging residents to stay calm, that "about 40 streets have been blocked" in the Luica quarter.

He said the quarantine would last for "a period of a week to 21 days and all the institutions in this quarter will be closed".

"About 2 500 birds from this area will be slaughtered as rapidly as possible," said the mayor.

A neighbourhood on the northern outskirts of the capital was put under quarantine on Sunday evening with fences blocking a dozen streets and police preventing anyone from going in or out, except for medical emergencies.





"Residents would be cut off and all businesses in the area would be closed during the quarantine period of up to three weeks"....




Be prepared.

[al-Canine]

This is frightening... :sad_02:

A Grisly but Essential Issue:
Pandemic Plan Skims Over How to Deal With Many Corpses

By Ceci Connolly
Washington Post Staff Writer

They brought in steam shovels to dig graves. Caskets were rented -- just long enough to hold a brief memorial service -- then passed on to the next grieving family. The death toll of the 1918 flu pandemic was so overwhelming that the military commandeered entire trains to transport dead soldiers; priests patrolled the streets of Philadelphia in horse-drawn carriages, collecting bodies from doorsteps.

"One of the most demoralizing things was the inability to move bodies out of the home," said John M. Barry, author of "The Great Influenza," the definitive work on the 1918 pandemic. "They just literally stacked up, sometimes for three, four or five days."

Now, with medical experts and government leaders racing to prepare for a potential pandemic, a cadre of mortuary specialists has begun quietly grappling with the grisly but essential question of what to do with the dead if it happens again.

Opinion is varied on when and how virulent the next global flu outbreak would be, but even a modest epidemic -- similar to the pandemic that hit in 1968 -- could kill between 89,000 and 207,000 Americans. If the next virus mimics the far more potent 1918 strain, the U.S. death toll could reach 1.9 million.

"It's almost too big to wrap your arms around," said John Nesler, a specialist in mass fatalities advising the military. If the worst were to occur, Nesler predicted the impact would be akin to "20 nuclear detonations" simultaneously knocking out multiple cities and towns.

In either case, experts foresee an 18-month period of funeral homes being short-staffed, crematories operating round-the-clock, dwindling supplies of caskets and restrictions on group gatherings such as memorial services. Morgues and hospitals would quickly reach capacity. And most of the federal Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Teams (DMORT) would be too busy in their own communities to deploy elsewhere.

"I can't see myself packing my bags to go to another state to help out," said Joyce deJong, a Michigan medical examiner who worked on DMORT teams after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and Hurricane Katrina. "I'll be here dealing with an increase in the number of bodies."

Some fear that the Bush administration, in all its detailed planning for pandemic flu, has paid scant attention to fatalities.

"It's the one thing nobody wants to address, because it's ugly. People don't want to think that anyone will die," said John Fitch, senior vice president for advocacy at the National Funeral Directors Association. "We can't put our head in the sand and say response stops at prevention and treatment."

In the 227-page response plan recently released by the White House, the term "medical examiner" appears just once -- and "autopsy" not at all. A single paragraph on page 112 recommends that hospitals, medical examiners and government officials "assess current capacity for refrigeration of deceased persons, discuss mass fatality plans and identify temporary morgue sites" to handle surges.

Officials say much more is happening behind the scenes. In March, the administration helped organize a two-day conference at Fort Monroe in Virginia with medical examiners, funeral directors, public health experts and casket makers. Among the more innovative, albeit jarring, ideas being considered are backyard burials, virtual funerals and storing bodies at ice hockey rinks.

Seattle's King County came up with the ice rink idea when officials realized their mass fatality plan would accommodate no more than 50 deaths, perhaps in a plane crash, said interim health director Dorothy Teeter.

"This is so much bigger," she said. "We project 11,000 potential deaths in six to eight weeks."

Several participants said they will have to consider temporary mass graves because they will not have the staff to keep up, especially if some of their workers or family members contract the flu.

"They would bury the person with all the identification material and carefully keep track of that information," said Ann Norwood, a senior analyst at the Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness at the Department of Health and Human Services. "After things calm down, we can locate the family, exhume the casket and put it wherever the family ultimately would like the body to rest."

"Virtual funerals" broadcast over closed-circuit television or the Internet would be advised, said Nesler, who ran the Fort Monroe conference. "The very worst thing you can do during an epidemic is have large gatherings of people" such as memorial services, he said. Some families may bury relatives on their own property, said deJong, who is also chairwoman of the mass fatality management committee of the National Association of Medical Examiners.

In a pandemic, one problem would likely trigger several more, Norwood said. Fuel shortages, for instance, would mean added complications transporting bodies and keeping refrigerated trucks cool.

If funeral directors and other mortuary workers are not given anti-viral medication or a vaccine when it becomes available, they will likely stay home, said Robert Fells, external chief operating officer for the International Cemetery and Funeral Association. "Ironically, funeral directors were at the bottom of the list," he said. White House officials said a priority list for medicine and vaccine has not been finalized.

"Noticeably absent from the discussion" at Fort Monroe were representatives of the Department of Homeland Security, even though they will have overall coordinating responsibility in a pandemic, said Fitch. "Right now, there is no single agency or individual responsible for mass fatalities."

However, much of the burden will fall to local communities and the states, Bush administration officials said.

Virginia's chief medical examiner, Marcella Fierro, said local hospitals, funeral homes and health departments must take the lead, but the state is trying to help now by developing software systems for clerical tasks such as keeping track of the dead and contacting next of kin. She is also compiling a list of retired employees who could step in.

One of the many lessons to emerge from Hurricane Katrina is that Americans are not accustomed to seeing unattended bodies on the streets of a major city, said Michael Osterholm, head of the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy at the University of Minnesota. He said less-developed countries may be better positioned to deal with huge numbers of flu fatalities.

If the next pandemic strikes with the same ferocity as the 1918 flu, even the most thorough planning will not prepare people for the emotional toll of such widespread death.

"We've forgotten that people do die from infectious diseases, and our process of dying has become very sanitized," said Norwood, who is also a psychiatrist. "For the whole Western world, it's going to be a shock."

The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/09/AR2006060900078.html)

[al-Canine]

Bird Flu Passed From Father to Son, W.H.O. Says

An Indonesian man who died of H5N1 bird flu caught it from his 10-year-old son, the first laboratory-confirmed case of human-to-human transmission of the disease, according to a World Health Organization investigation of an unusual family cluster of bird-flu cases.

The investigators also found that the virus mutated slightly when the son had the disease, although not in any way that would allow it to pass more readily among people. Flu viruses like H5N1 mutate constantly, although most of the mutations are insignificant biologically; that appears to be have been the case in the Indonesian cluster.

"Yes, it is slightly altered, but in a way that viruses commonly mutate," said Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization n Geneva, describing the findings, which were not publicly released. "But that didn't make it more transmissible, or cause more severe disease."

The greater importance of the slightly modified virus is that it allowed researchers from the organization and the United States Centers for Disease Control to document for the first time that the virus almost certainly passed from the son directly to his father.

In previous cases where human-to-human transmission was suspected, scientists were not able to say for sure, either because test samples from the patients were not available or because the virus in the patients was the same as that found in poultry in the area.

Scientists say the H5N1 virus, which has killed hundreds of millions of birds worldwide, does not spread easily to humans or among them. But they have worried that it might, through normal biological processes, acquire the ability to do so, potentially setting off a devastating human pandemic.

More than 200 people have contracted bird flu around the world, almost all of them after very close contact with infected birds.

International health officials have been in Indonesia for much of the past month, investigating a family outbreak that affected seven relatives in a remote region of Sumatra. Six of the seven died.

Although Indonesia has been struggling all year to control a series of bird flu outbreaks in poultry, the family on Sumatra had no known direct contact with sick birds, although the first death in the family was a woman who sold vegetables in a market that also sold birds.

Scientists have suspected that H5N1, though an avian virus, could also spread from person to person in rare cases if there were prolonged close contact.

The family members in the cluster had a banquet in late April, when the vegetable merchant was already ill and coughing heavily. Some spent the night in the same small room with her. Some members also cared for their relatives when they were sick.

In hospitals, doctors and nurses generally wear masks when treating people who may have bird flu.

The first five family members to fall ill had identical strains of H5N1, one that is common in animals in Indonesia. But the virus mutated slightly in the sixth victim, the 10-year-old boy, and he apparently passed the mutated virus to his father. The presence of that mutation allowed the lab to confirm the route of transmission.

Still, Mr. Thompson said there was no evidence that the mutated virus is any better adapted to human infection than before. In fact, the World Health Organization has been following 54 neighbors and family members who lived near the family for a month, and none has contracted the virus.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/23/world/asia/22cnd-flu.html?hp&ex=1151121600&en=f086bf34e7d67451&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[uchiuke123]

New bird flu outbreak hits Siberia

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060627/50551090.html

17:00 | 27/ 06/ 2006



NOVOSIBIRSK, June 27 (RIA Novosti) - A new outbreak of bird flu has hit the West Siberian region of Tomsk, the local administration said Tuesday.

A representative said a laboratory analysis of fancy pigeons that died in a village last week revealed the deadly virus.

"All the pigeons and chickens from the courtyard have been culled," the representative said. "The owner who had refused to vaccinate poultry will receive no compensation."

Governor Viktor Kress ordered vaccination as a preventive measure against an epidemic of the disease, which claimed over a million birds in Russia in February-April.

According to the Agriculture Ministry, bird flu was registered in 10 villages in three West Siberian regions in late May.

uchiuke123

[NYer]

Spain (http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2006-07-07T121806Z_01_L07601663_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-SPAIN.xml&src=rss&rpc=22)

[al-Canine]

Glaxo claims bird flu breakthrough

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- A bird flu vaccine for humans that uses only a very low dose of active ingredient has proved effective in clinical tests and could be available in 2007, its maker GlaxoSmithKline Plc has said.

The promising result means Europe's biggest pharmaceuticals group is on track to start making the vaccine in commercial quantities by the end of the year.

Glaxo believes its H5N1 vaccine will work more efficiently than rival ones in development because of the proprietary adjuvant used in its manufacture. Adjuvants are additives put into vaccines that boost the immune system and make it respond more efficiently.

A key challenge in the race to produce a vaccine for millions of people around the world -- which governments are keen to stockpile -- is how to make the maximum number of shots from the minimum amount of antigen, or active ingredient.

Glaxo's vaccine contains just 3.8 micrograms of antigen, yet more than 80 percent of healthy adult volunteers who received two doses had a strong immune response.

That level of protection meets or exceeds requirements set by regulatory agencies for approving new flu vaccines, and is twice as good at half the dose as results with an experimental vaccine produced by Sanofi-Aventis.

Breakthrough

Glaxo Chief Executive Jean-Pierre Garnier said it was a "significant breakthrough."

"All being well, we expect to make regulatory filings for the vaccine in the coming months," he said.

Sanofi in May reported good responses with a vaccine using a conventional adjuvant given at two doses of 30 micrograms. But when the dose was reduced to 7.5 micrograms, only 40 percent of people were protected.

While Glaxo's vaccine offers protection against the deadly H5N1 avian flu virus now circulating, its impact on any mutated strain of virus is not certain.

However, experts say it could "prime" a person's immune system so they will get stronger effects from a later, better-matched vaccine.

Glaxo said it would now also study the ability of its vaccine to offer cross-protection to variants of the H5N1 virus.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread rapidly out of Asia and has killed more than 130 people who have come into close contact with infected birds.

Experts fear it could trigger a global epidemic of flu that could kill millions, if it acquires the ability to pass easily from human to human.

Companies are racing to develop pandemic H5N1 vaccines that could save lives and buy time to develop a vaccine against a pandemic strain. It could take from four to six months from the start of a pandemic before a specific vaccine will be ready.

Other firms working on a bird flu vaccine include Novartis AG and Baxter International Inc.

CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/07/26/glaxo.vaccine.reut/index.html)

[NYer]

Bird Flu Monitoring Expands Nationally. (http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ats-ap_health10aug10,0,156441.story?coll=ny-leadhealthnews-headlines)

Monitoring of wild migratory birds to prevent a deadly bird flu virus is expanding to cover the entire nation and U.S. territories in the Pacific.

The stepped-up testing will be done by scientists in the lower 48 states, Hawaii and other Pacific islands. They will begin keeping an eye out for the deadly H5N1 strain of the avian flu that has killed more than 100 people, mostly in Asia.

In Alaska, where the first migratory birds began arriving, monitoring started just before summer.

"This move to test thousands more wild birds throughout the country will help us to quickly identify, respond and control the virus if it arrives in the United States," Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Wednesday. "Because we cannot control wild birds, our best protection is an early warning system."

Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne said more coordinated monitoring by federal agencies, states and universities "will be important this fall as birds now nesting in Alaska and Canada begin their migration south through the continental United States."

[NYer]

Low Path Bird Flu in Michigan (http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2006-08-28T223119Z_01_N28366402_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-MICHIGAN-USDA.xml)

A second round of tests on swans in Michigan confirmed the birds have a low-pathogenic strain of H5N1 and not the deadly avian influenza virus that has killed more than 141 people in Asia, Europe and Africa, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday.

Routine tests conducted in a Michigan gaming area earlier this month found two of about 20 swans had what was believed to be a low-pathogenic strain of H5N1.

"Genetic testing confirms that these swans were not carrying the highly pathogenic strain of H5N1 avian influenza that is circulating overseas," USDA said in a statement.

The swans had shown no sign of sickness, which indicated this was low pathogenicity avian influenza. Pathogenicity refers to the ability of the virus to produce a disease.

A low-pathogenic strain, which produces less disease and mortality in birds than does a high-pathogenic version, poses no threat to human health.

[NYer]

CDC issues Guidelines for Pandemic. (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/health/01cnd-flu.html?ei=5065&en=cdb820c97dd329e6&ex=1170997200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print)

http://rantburg.com/images/plagueinflorence.jpg
from Rantburg

Cities should close schools for up to three months in the event of a severe flu outbreak, ball games and movies should be canceled and working hours staggered so subways and buses are less crowded, the federal government advised today in issuing new pandemic flu guidelines to states and cities.

Health officials acknowledged that such measures would hugely disrupt public life, but they argued that these measure would buy the time needed to produce vaccines and would save lives because flu viruses attack in waves lasting about two months.

“We have to be prepared for a Category 5 pandemic,” said Dr. Martin Cetron, director of global migration and quarantine for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in releasing the guidelines. “It’s not easy. The only thing that’s harder is facing the consequences. That will be intolerable.”

In an innovation, the new guidelines are modeled on the five levels of hurricanes, but ranked by lethality instead of wind speed. Category 1, which assumes 90,000 Americans would die, is equivalent to a bad year for seasonal flu, Glen Nowak, a C.D.C. spokesman, said. (About 36,000 Americans die of flu in an average year.) Category 5, which assumes 1.8 million dead, is the equivalent of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. (That flu killed about 2 percent of those infected; the H5N1 flu now circulating in Asia has killed more than 50 percent but is not easily transmitted.)

[Klaus]

Is this is all hype? It can't happen here???
The US government has their websites all ready....just in case.


http://www.pandemicflu.gov/index.html

www.Avianflu.gov

The 1918 flu spread to pigs, and then to humans.

I read that in Indonesia they think it has "jumped" from birds to cats.
The REAL concern is the 3rd world countries who are not reporting it, or don't have the ability to recognize and contain. This is getting serious.

[Klaus]

IT'S COMING


http://www.cnn.com/2007/HEALTH/conditions/02/03/britain.birdflu.reut/index.html


HOLTON, England (Reuters) -- Britain tried to contain its first outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu in domestic poultry on Saturday after the virus was found at a farm run by Europe's biggest turkey producer.

Some 2,500 turkeys have died since Thursday at the Bernard Matthews farm near Lowestoft in eastern England. The Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said all 159,000 turkeys on the farm would now be culled.

"We're in new territory," National Farmers' Union Poultry Board chairman Charles Bourns told Reuters. "We've every confidence in Defra but, until we know how this disease arrived, this is a very apprehensive time for all poultry farmers."

The outbreak mirrored a similar case where hundreds of turkeys died at a farm in eastern France almost a year ago.

That outbreak was contained and there followed a lull in cases of H5N1 in European poultry until last month, when it was found to have killed thousands of geese on a farm in Hungary.

The strain tends to be transmitted to poultry by infected migrating wildfowl.

It has killed at least 164 people worldwide since 2003, most of them in Asia, and more than 200 million birds have died from it, or been killed to prevent its spread.

But it has not yet fulfilled scientists' worst fears by mutating into a form that can be easily transmitted between humans and could possibly cause a global pandemic.

Avian flu expert Colin Butter of the Institute of Animal Health said the British outbreak was surprising as it had happened outside the main bird migration period:

"We would not expect this to happen in the middle of winter. If it was going to happen we would expect it to happen in spring.

"The next thing we need to know is if this is a primary or secondary case. If this is a secondary case, it is much more serious. If this is the first case, or 'reference case', and we can stamp it out, the outbreak will be controlled."

The British government enforced EU-agreed controls to contain the outbreak, which means setting up a protection zone with a radius of 3 km (2 miles) and a surveillance zone of 10 km around the infected farm, the EU Commission said.

Britain's poultry industry is worth 3.4 billion pounds ($6.7 billion), with 800 million birds produced each year.

"As long as people don't walk away, the industry will be okay," added Bourns. "Hopefully they'll realize this is a disease of poultry and not people, and there is no danger from eating birds."

Police sealed off access to the sheds housing the turkeys at the farm, located on a former U.S. air base. Television footage showed dead birds being dumped into a waiting truck.

The Health Protection Agency said the current level of risk to humans from H5N1 was extremely low.

In May, 50,000 chickens at three farms in Norfolk, also in eastern England and home to some of Europe's biggest poultry farms, were culled after another strain, H7N3, was detected.

A wild swan found dead in Scotland in March had the H5N1 version of the virus. It was thought to have caught the disease elsewhere, died at sea and been washed ashore in Scotland.

Bourns said those two scares had cost the British poultry industry 58 million pounds ($115 million).

[al-Canine]

A vet involved in the bird flu outbreak in Suffolk is in hospital with a mild respiratory illness, the Health Protection Agency said.

The vet , who was not named but is believed to be in his late 50s, is being tested for H5N1, the potentially lethal form of avian flu, in an isolation ward at Nottingham City Hospital.

The HPA stressed last night that the tests were precautionary, and he would be tested for avian flu as part of many tests. Results are expected today.

A HPA spokesman said: "It is highly unlikely the worker has been exposed to H5N1 because of the strict precautionary measures followed. The individual had not been pre-exposed and was wearing full protective clothing. As a precaution we are testing for H5N1."

The government vet was reported to have spent two days investigating the H5N1 outbreak in Holton, Suffolk, before returning home to Nottingham on Monday. Yesterday, he began feeling slightly unwell.

A spokesman for the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said that all employees of the State Veterinary Service are issued with, and are trained to wear, respiratory protective equipment and protective eyewear. "They are also face-fit tested to ensure they receive maximum protection," he said.

Professor John McCauley, a bird flu specialist with the MRC National Institute of Medical Research, urged the public not to panic. He said the priority was to establish whether or not the vet had H5N1 but, even if that is so, with swift treatment the situation can be contained. "The infecting of one person is not a critical event," he said. "It is if the person spreads it to someone and then on to someone else that's when it becomes critical."

In 2003, a Dutch vet died after handling infected birds, although he was infected by the H7N7 strain, Professor McCauley said. "The message is, there is always the risk of someone who has been involved becoming infected, it has certainly happened in the past." He added: "It is bad luck. I hope the person is OK. I hope it is not flu, and if it is, I hope the Tamiflu works."

A spokeswoman for the Strategic Health Authority in East Anglia said: " All we can do is to wait and see whether or not it is a confirmed case," she said.

The H5N1 virus, which has killed dozens of people who work closely with poultry in Asia since 2003, has only passed from human to human in a possible four cases.

The Bernard Matthews food company, which runs the poultry farm where 160,000 turkeys have had to be culled, has defended its handling of the outbreak. The commercial director, Bart Dalla Mura, said the company had no idea the turkeys were suffering from bird flu until Defra told it on Friday. "We heard the birds weren't well on Wednesday, the mortality increased a bit more on Thursday and that is when our vet said: 'I'm going to contact the next stage of the line.' The last thing we thought is that they had avian flu," he said.

He said biosecurity at the Holton site, which employs 1,000 workers, was " good or better than required". He said the infection was confined to one out of 22 sheds and there was no evidence it had spread. A 3km (1.9 mile) protection zone is in place around the farm, which will reopen once Defra gives it the all clear.

EU vets said yesterday the outbreak is unlikely to be linked to one in Hungary last month.

The EU also said bans on UK poultry imports imposed by Russia and Japan were unnecessary.

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article2245118.ece

[NYer]

Islamabad Zoo closed because of Bird Flu. (http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2007-02-20T092207Z_01_ISL29191_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-PAKISTAN.xml&src=rss&rpc=22)

[Bman]

April 17, 2007

Nation’s First Vaccine Against Bird Flu Approved
More than 750 area residents have taken part in bird-flu research


The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today announced the approval of the first vaccine in the nation’s history designed to prevent bird flu.

Much of the testing of the vaccine, made by Sanofi Pasteur Inc., was done at the University of Rochester Medical Center and involved Rochester-area residents. Last year John Treanor, M.D., professor of Medicine and of Microbiology and Immunology, led a pivotal study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, that showed that large doses of the vaccine are safe and effective at protecting people against bird flu.

More than half of the 300 people worldwide who have been infected with the H5N1 type of bird flu have died, making the flu at least 20 times as deadly as the Spanish flu of 1918 that killed 50 million people. Thus far the number of deaths has been low because H5N1 hasn’t acquired the ability to spread efficiently from person to person. If the virus does gain the ability to spread quickly among people, the vaccine would provide early protection until a vaccine tailored to the pandemic strain of the virus could be developed and produced.

The vaccine has been purchased by the federal government and is being stockpiled for distribution by public health officials if needed.

The research comes through the University’s Vaccine and Treatment Evaluation Unit, or VTEU, part of a Federally funded network of seven centers that the nation relies on to protect its citizens against infectious threats. Because of the role of the Rochester VTEU testing vaccines, more people in Rochester have been immunized against bird flu than in nearly any other community in the world. More than 750 people in the Rochester area have taken part in studies of bird flu vaccines.

Currently, citizens in the Rochester area are taking part in five studies aimed at protecting people against the H5N1 virus. The studies are looking at a variety of issues, including vaccine safety, the potential effectiveness of a booster shot, the response of the elderly to the vaccine, and whether an additive might boost the effectiveness of a vaccine.

Earlier this month the University was awarded $26 million from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to establish the New York Influenza Center of Excellence. The center is part of a network recently established by NIAID to protect people against seasonal flu and future flu pandemics.


For more media inquiries, contact:
Tom Rickey
(585) 275-7954
tom_rickey@urmc.rochester.edu


http://www.urmc.rochester.edu/pr/news/story.cfm?id=1438

[NYer]

Chinese soldier dies of Bird Flu. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118102915540524903.html?mod=health_home_stories&apl=y)

A 19-year-old Chinese soldier has died of the H5N1 bird-flu strain, the country's 16th reported death from the virus, the World Health Organization and China's Health Ministry said Tuesday.

The man, stationed in the southern province of Fujian, died Sunday after being hospitalized May 14 with a fever and cough, said Joanna Brent, a spokeswoman for WHO's Beijing office.

The Health Ministry, which gave the soldier's surname as Cheng, informed WHO about the death on Sunday but didn't give any details about his case, including how he contracted the disease or exactly where he was posted, Ms. Brent said. "We're always concerned about cases of bird flu," she said.

[NYer]

Plans for Pandemic Flu. (http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/07/20070717-5.html)

[NYer]

Possible Bird Flu Outbreak in Bali. (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22235563-2,00.html)


HEALTH officials in Bali are investigating whether a woman and her daughter died from the deadly H5N1 strain of influenza.

If confirmed, the death of the 29-year-old woman and the five-year-old girl will become the first cases of the disease for the tourist island.

Doctors at Sanglah Hospital in Denpasar were awaiting test results after the death of Ni Luh Putu Sri Windani last Sunday, officials said.

Initial tests show she had the H5N1 strain.

[Klaus]

U.S. banks undergo largest ever test of financial systems
Martin Crutsinger
Associated Press
Sept. 24, 2007 03:57 PM

WASHINGTON - Hundreds of banks and other financial institutions are participating in the largest test of its kind ever conducted to ensure the nation's financial system can keep functioning in case of an outbreak of pandemic flu.

The test began Monday and is scheduled to run for three weeks. More than 2,700 financial institutions have signed up to participate, about five times the number the Treasury Department expected.

"This shows how much the business sector is focused on pandemic flu planning," Valerie Abend, Treasury's deputy assistant secretary for critical infrastructure protection, said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Treasury, aided by other federal agencies and the private sector, has devised a three-week script for how a serious outbreak of bird flu might affect operations at banks, from the very biggest to the smallest, as well as at credit unions, securities firms and insurance companies.

The exercise also covers companies that provide critical behind-the-scenes processing to keep the flow of checks and money circulating around the country.

According to the doomsday scenario devised by Treasury, a number of cases of bird flu in humans are reported overseas and the illness spreads quickly to the United States by people traveling on international flights.

From that beginning, the Treasury scenario presents financial institutions with a number of challenges over the course of the three-week exercise. The financial institutions got the first week's scenario over the weekend from an Internet site where the test is being conducted.

The whole exercise is part of a plan unveiled by President Bush in May 2006 directing various government agencies to upgrade their planning for pandemic outbreaks. The Government Accountability Office earlier this month criticized the administration for failing to conduct sufficient tests to make sure that the agencies understand their responsibilities.

One of the biggest challenges financial institutions will face is how to cope with absenteeism. In week one, the Treasury exercise directs the financial organizations to assume that 25 percent of their work force is not coming to work, either because of illness or because of fear of being infected or because they are staying home to take care of children who can't go to school because the schools have closed.

To decide who is absent, the Treasury directs the institutions to assume that everyone whose last name begins with certain letters, which could cover the bank president down to the local teller, cannot come to work. The 25 percent absentee rate will jump to 49 percent in week two.
Abend said the various projections were compiled with the help of government scientists. Government financial regulators also helped put together scenarios on how the stock market will behave as well as what the value of the dollar and various commodities such as oil will be doing.

The dollar is projected to rise as investors seek a safe haven with the spreading global illness while stock prices are projected to fall because of worries about what the pandemic will do to economic activity.

Absent employees won't be the only troubles facing the financial institutions. Under Treasury's scenario, they also will have to cope with shrinking Internet bandwidths as more and more people try to work from home. Cash withdrawals from ATM machines are expected to rise sharply and getting the machines refilled will present problems because of rising absentee rates at the armored car companies and the difficulty of getting fuel for the armored trucks as gasoline refineries curtail their production.

By the end of the three weeks, Abend said the government and the institutions participating will have a much better idea of just what a flu pandemic will mean in the United States. She said the test should get the institutions thinking about where they need to improve their contingency plans.

"What would you do if you don't have access to key people? Have you cross-trained enough employees to sufficiently cover that?" she asked. "We want to do a really robust test."

Of the more than 2,700 organizations participating, two-thirds are banks, 20 percent are securities firms and 10 percent are insurance companies. The size of the firms ranges from the very largest with more than 100,000 employees to small institutions with fewer than 250 employees.

After the three-week exercise is completed, Treasury plans to write a report detailing how institutions performed and where planning needs to be upgraded. The organizations will also be given the opportunity to make suggestions on any areas where they believe government regulations need to be amended to allow for a better response to a pandemic.

"The after-action report will allow institutions to benchmark their capabilities against other institutions," Abend said.

[Klaus]

http://www.myukm.com/blog/human-to-human-transmission-of-h5n1-confirmed

Reuters reports that matematical analysis has confirmed that the deadly bird flu virus was spread from human to human in Indonesia in 2006.

A mathematical analysis has confirmed that H5N1 avian influenza spread from person to person in Indonesia in April, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday.

They said they had developed a tool to run quick tests on disease outbreaks to see if dangerous epidemics or pandemics may be developing.

Health officials around the world agree that a pandemic of influenza is overdue, and they are most worried by the H5N1 strain of avian influenza that has been spreading through flocks from Asia to Africa.

It rarely passes to humans, but since 2003 it has infected 322 people and killed 195 of them.

Most have been infected directly by birds. But a few clusters of cases have been seen and officials worry most about the possibility that the virus has acquired the ability to pass easily and directly from one person to another. That would spark a pandemic.


The human-to-human transfer of bird flu is suspected in cases from Sumatra where a 10-year-old boy caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt and then spread the virus to his father. The outbreak in Sumatra was stopped before the virus could spread outside of the family.


The cluster contained a chain of infection that involved a 10-year-old boy who probably caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt, who had been exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of infection. The boy then probably passed the virus to his father. The possibility that the boy infected his father was supported by genetic sequencing data. Other person-to-person transmissions in the cluster are backed up with statistical data. All but one of the flu victims died, and all had had sustained close contact with other ill family members prior to getting sick — a factor considered crucial for transmission of this particular flu strain.



In an attempt to contain the spread of the virus, the local health authorities eventually placed more than 50 surviving relatives and close contacts under voluntary quarantine and all, except for pregnant women and infants, received antiviral medication as a precaution.



“The containment strategy was implemented late in the game, so it could have been just luck that the virus burned out,” Longini said. “It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control. The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time we might not be so lucky,” he said.


Now we know that H5N1 can be transmitted from person to person. Fortunately, the h2h transmission is not easy and does not appear to happen quickly. If the virus mutates and acquires the ability to easily transfer among humans then the possibility of global pandemic becomes much more likely.

[Kanuckistan]

It is now H7N3. What's the difference?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cpress/20070929/ca_pr_on_na/sask_chicken_farm

[al-Canine]

Roger Simon points to this Ray of Hope. (http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ny-hsbird0323,0,6553458.story?coll=ny-leadhealthnews-headlines)

The avian influenza virus tends to penetrate so deeply in the respiratory tract it cannot be easily spread through coughing and sneezing, observations that may explain why there has been only negligible human-to-human spread, scientists report today.

To be easily spread from one person to another, the pathogen must first localize itself in the upper reaches of the "bronchial tree," where droplets can be propelled and sprayed.Virologist Yoshio Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin in Madison reports in the journal Nature today that only cells deep within the lungs possess the surface molecule -- the receptor -- to which the virus can dock and enter. Once inside the cell's inner labyrinths, the virus can commandeer cellular genes, using them to crank out scores of new viruses. While this scenario is potentially lethal, it is not ideal for disease transmission, Kawaoka said.

"We looked from the nasal mucosa all the way to the bottom of the lungs," Kawaoka said. "We examined eight people who had been infected with H5N1 and all of them had avian viral receptors in the lungs, but not in the upper portion of the lungs."

He said his findings provide a rationale for how H5N1 can replicate itself efficiently in the lungs, but rarely spread from one person to another.

Unfortunately, viral mutation remains an open question ...



Ruh-Roh... so much for that "ray of hope..." :eek:


Scientists: Bird Flu Mutation Sets Stage for Flu Pandemic

Friday , October 05, 2007

The deadly bird flu virus has mutated and may infect people more easily if it begins spreading from human to human, according to a new study.

Scientist Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said the H5N1 virus, commonly referred to as the bird flu, has mutated and can now develop in the upper respiratory systems of humans, which may increase the chances of the virus spreading from one person to another.

Recent virus samples taken from birds in Africa and Europe show mutations that resemble human viruses, Kawaoka stated in a report published in the Public Library of Science journal PLoS Pathogens.

The bird flu usually doesn’t develop in the nose or throat of humans, said Kawaoka, but this particular strain allows the virus to live in cooler temperatures similar to those found in the human upper respiratory tract.

In the new study, conducted in mice, researchers found a small, but significant change in the virus that allowed it to settle in the upper respiratory system, which may allow the virus to infect more cell types and spread more easily.

"The viruses that are in circulation now are much more mammalian-like than the ones circulating in 1997," said Kawaoka.

Bird flu strikes chickens and other birds and can infect humans who are in close contact with the infected animals. The new strain of the H5N1 virus may allow the disease to spread from one person to another through coughing or sneezing, according to the report. Temperatures in the lungs are also higher and more amenable to the efficient growth of the virus.

To date, there have been more than 250 human bird flu cases and more than 150 reported deaths. There have been no reported human-to-human transmissions.

Kawaoka believes that, as more humans and animals are exposed to the virus, the virus may continue to mutate and has the possibility of becoming a pandemic.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,299561,00.html

[NYer]

H5N1 in UK. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7092988.stm)

The type of bird flu found in turkeys on a Suffolk farm is the virulent H5N1 strain, according to government vets.

The virus was discovered on Sunday at Redgrave Park Farm near Diss, where all 6,500 birds, most of them turkeys, are being slaughtered.

[al-Canine]

Human Source of Bird Flu Infection Can't Be Ruled Out, WHO Says

By Jason Gale and Belinda Cao

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Human-to-human transmission can't be ruled out as the source of bird flu in a man whose son died of the infection in eastern China six day ago, a World Health Organization official said today.

The WHO was informed of the case late yesterday and is ``hoping to arrange a meeting with China's Ministry of Health to offer support and to get more details'' on the case, said Joanna Brent, a Beijing-based spokeswoman for the United Nations agency.

The 52-year-old man from Nanjing in Jiangsu province was confirmed to have the H5N1 avian influenza strain on Dec. 6, the health ministry said yesterday in a statement on its Web site. He developed a fever on Dec. 3, a day after his 24-year-old son died. An initial investigation found no evidence the younger man had contact with sick birds prior to becoming unwell.

``We are not ruling anything in or out'' in determining the source of the father's infection, Brent said in a telephone interview. He may have been infected by a common virus source, a separate source, or from his son's respiratory secretions, she said.

At least 336 people in a dozen countries have contracted the virus since 2003. Three of every five cases were fatal and most were caused by contact with infected poultry, such as children playing with them or adults butchering them or plucking feathers, according to the Geneva-based WHO.

Disease trackers monitor clusters of two or more linked cases to gauge whether the virus is becoming adept at infecting humans not just birds. Millions of people could die if H5N1 develops the characteristics of seasonal flu and begins spreading easily between humans through coughing and sneezing.

Inefficient Transmission

The WHO ``would be concerned'' if the H5N1 virus had been passed between family members in China's latest case, Brent said. In the event that it did, it's unlikely that it would represent the ``efficient'' human-to-human transmission that could signal the start of a pandemic, she said. ``No further medical abnormalities have been detected'' by Chinese authorities in the 70 or more people in close contact with either man, she said.

Excluding the two most recent cases, China has reported 25 human H5N1 infections, 16 of which were fatal. The previous case had occurred in May in a 19-year-old male soldier serving in Fujian province. There had been no initial indication to suggest he had contact with sick birds prior to becoming unwell, the WHO said in a May 30 statement.

A study by researchers in China in June found that so- called wet markets where fresh meat and vegetables are sold might be an important host of avian flu viruses in urban centers.

Researchers led by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing looked for the source of H5N1 avian influenza infection in six patients who lived in cities and had no known exposure to sick or dead birds. They found all had visited so-called wet markets before becoming ill, and may have touched contaminated surfaces or inhaled virus-containing dust.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVbDhWQkg4s4&refer=home

[Casey]

H5N1 bird flu found at fifth site in Poland
Wed Dec 12, 2:43 AM ET

The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been found in wild birds at a fifth site in Poland, officials said on Wednesday.

A stork and two buzzards, which died from the virus, were being kept at a wild bird rehabilitation centre near the town of Orneta, northeastern Poland, regional government veterinarian Ludwik Bartoszewicz was quoted as saying on the TVN24 Web site.

Emergency services set up a safety perimeter around the site. The rehabilitation centre is home to several other wild birds, including cranes and swans. Since some of the species are endangered it was unclear if culling would proceed as usual.

Poland has suffered a spate of recent outbreaks. The first was discovered at a turkey farm 50 miles northwest of Warsaw earlier this month.

One of the EU's biggest poultry producers, Poland exported 230,000 tons of poultry to European markets last year.

(Reporting by Marynia Kruk; Editing by Michael Winfrey)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071212/wl_nm/poland_birdflu_dc;_ylt=AvkMm9FjHLJhnrvhlZXyeuZ0bBA F

[NYer]

Avian flu found in Pakistan. (http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/5529.php)

[Klaus]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12170706/H5N1_Pakistan_Tamiflu_Blanket.html

Tamiflu Blanket and H5N1 False Negatives in Pakistan

Recombinomics Commentary
December 17, 2007

Four brothers and a cousin from a family in Peshawar, near the border with Afghanistan, were among those who tested positive for the virus during the past three weeks, WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said.

While almost all human H5N1 cases confirmed by WHO have shown severe symptoms, such as pneumonia, in Pakistan at least two people had only mild disease. Anwar said this was probably because the patients had begun taking Roche Holding AG's Tamiflu one to two days before being tested, and the medicine reduced the severity of symptoms.

The above comments describe the use of a Tamiflu blanket in the recent H5N1 outbreak in Pakistan. Although this approach certainly has the potential for suppressing the spread of H5N1, collection of samples 1-2 after the start of treatment can generate false negatives.

This is a possibility for the sixth brother (38M), who lives in Nassau County, New York. As noted above, four of the brothers tested positive, and the fifth brother died with bird flu symptoms, so all five brothers of the New York resident were H5N1 infected. If the New York resident was in Pakistan for both funerals, and funerals followed the November 19 and 29 deaths, then the exposure period was extensive. Moreover, it is likely that he had received prophylactic Tamiflu treatment in Pakistan, which may have generated false negatives in tests in the United States conducted by New York and the CDC.

Similarly, the spread of H5N1 in Pakistan may have been masked by the Tamiflu blanket. Testing of contacts, including the brother in New York would be useful, to determine how efficiently the H5N1 in Pakistan infects contacts. Clearly, the infection of five brothers in the same family is an H5N1 cluster high, and strongly supports human-to-human transmission. This transmission may have also extended to the health care worker, who was also said to be positive, and who also was a likely recipient of prophylactic Tamiflu prior to collection of samples.

Media reports have indicated the brother from New York was H5N1 positive in Pakistan, was negative in the US but symptomatic, and was negative in teh US and asymptomatic. Similar mutually exclusive descriptions for the health care worker have also been published in media reports.

[Klaus]

Transmission, spread, and testing flaws....



Suspect H5N1 Spread to Assam and Meghalaya

Recombinomics Commentary 12:24
January 25, 2008

According to a section of officials of the State Veterinary and Animal Husbandry department, the virus is suspected to have reached Goalpara district and neighbouring Khasi Hills of Meghalaya from West Bengal.

Though the officials refused to confirm the detection of the suspected virus in poultry in Assam, it, however, asserted that the Central team, which is on a visit to the State, is suspecting the spread of the virus to the NE States also. The above comments described suspect H5N1 poultry deaths in neighboring Assam and Meghalaya (see satellite map). Thus, the H5N1 confirmed in West Bengal is spreading to adjacent districts in India as well as adjacent countries.

Although Assam has been instructed to seal its border with West Bengal, the above report suggest H5N1 has already moved into Assam. H5N1 or dead poultry has been reported in most of the blocks of Cooch Behar, and dead migratory birds have also been noted in the area, so spread is likely, without or without border sealing.

The above comments also raise questions about the “precautionary” culling in regions adjacent to West Bengal, like the Katihar district in Bihar, or the culling in North Dinajpur. Both areas are adjacent to Malda, where H5N1 has been confirmed, but it seems likely that the culling also involves dead poultry infected with H5N1. The most recent West Bengal update adds two more districts, Howrah and Purulia, to the nine previously confirmed. Thus, 11 of the 19 districts of West Bengal have laboratory confirmed H5N1.


Long Range H5N1Transport and Transmission by Migratory Birds

Recombinomics Commentary 20:41
January 24, 2008
"We know that some wild birds have probably moved short distances carrying viruses and then they died, but we have not been able to identify carriage of H5N1 across large scale spatial distances and then resulting in spread to other birds and mortality in poultry flocks," Newman told Reuters.
He said fecal tests on some 350,000 healthy birds worldwide had to date only yielded "a few" positive H5N1 results. Furthermore, in instances and places where wild birds were found with the disease, there were no concurrent outbreaks of the virus in poultry. "So we don't have at this point in time a wildlife reservoir for H5N1 ... so they can't be a main spreader of the disease," Newman said. The above comments on negative data on testing of fecal samples from live wild birds are remarkable. The fatally flawed approach was used over two years ago in Mongolia, when wild bird deaths were reported at the remote Erhel Lake. The failure to detect H5N1 in the live birds at the lake left little doubt that the approach was flawed. Now two and half years and 350,000 tests later, these data are used to “prove” that migratory birds are not the major transport and transmission vehicle of H5N1 in the 50 countries reporting H5N1 since the outbreaks in the spring and summer of 2005.

The role of the migratory birds was really decided in the summer of 2005, when false negatives were being generated at Erhel Lake. In the spring of 2005, H5N1 was found in long range migratory birds at Qinghai Lake in central China. The H5N1 reported was a novel variant, which had unique genetic features, including the acquisition of a “human” change in one of the enzymes used to copy the viral genome. This change PB2 E627K was a concern because it had never been reported in H5N1 from a bird, and the change allowed the virus to replicate more rapidly at 33 C, the temperature of a human nose or throat in the winter. Since the body temperature of a bird is 41 C, the “human” change slowed down the replication of the virus in birds. However, the H5N1 could still be quite lethal, since 5,000-10,000 wild birds died at Qinghai Lake.

The high number of deaths raised the possibility that the strain would “burn out” at the lake. However, Qinghai Lake is the largest lake in China and attracts a large number of species of birds, so when H5N1 was reported at Chany Lake in southern Siberia, which was 2,000 miles from Qinghai Lake, the role of long range migratory birds was becoming clearer. Prior to the summer outbreak at Chany Lake, Russia had never reported highly pathogenic H5N1, so the wild birds were the prime suspect. H5N1 was isolated from a healthy grebe, and the sequence was the Qinghai strain. Thus, at that point there was little doubt about the role of wild birds in the transport to Chany Lake, and the transmission to nearby poultry in Russia and Kazakhstan.

Any doubt that remained was removed by a similar, almost simultaneous outbreak at Erhel Lake in Mongolia. Like Russia and Kazakhstan, Mongolia had also never reported H5N1 prior to the summer of 2005. When wild birds began to die at the remote lake, conservation groups joined in the study. These groups initially said that the bird deaths couldn’t be due to H5N1 because there were fewer than 100 dead birds. When initial results of H5 came back, they again maintained that the H5 would not be from H5N1 because there were not enough dead birds.
Then when the H5 was determined to be from Qinghai H5N1, the conservation groups said H5N1would not pose a problem because the live birds at the lake tested negative for H5N1. At that point it was clear that the Qinghai H5N1 had the potential of causing greater problems because it was killing a small number of birds. Thus, it was more likely that live birds would transport the H5N1. The failure to detect the H5N1 in live birds in an area where dead birds were H5N1 positive, signaled a fatally flawed assay.

In Siberia, the number of reports of H5N1 in wild birds continued to grow during the summer, signaling further spread in the fall when the wild birds would head south. The potential for spread was great, because Chany Lake and other small lakes in southern Siberia or northern Kazakhstan hosted a large number of waterfowl in the summer, and these locations were in intersecting flyways, so the H5N1 could fly off in several directions. The flyways predicted that the H5N1 would move into Europe, the Middle East, and Africa in the ensuing months, which happened. Although none of the countries west of China had previously reported H5N1, the reports began in the fall of 2005. H5N1 was found in mute swans near the Volga Delta, at the northern end of the Caspian Sea. That was followed by H5N1 in mute swans in the Danube Delta on the western shores of the Black Sea, which was followed by H5N1 in wild birds in the Crimea Peninsula, which juts out into the Black Sea, which was followed by H5N1 in a healthy teal in the Nile Delta at the end of 2005.

Although H5N1 was reported in wild waterfowl at the above locations, countries in the EU denied H5N1 infections, as did countries in the Middle East and Africa through the end of 2005. However, after H5N1 caused human fatalities in eastern Turkey at the beginning of 2006, H5N1 was widely reported at all of the above locations in February and March of 2006. Moreover, all H5N1 reported was the Qinghai strain of H5N1, although there were regional differences in sequences, reflecting independent introductions by wild birds. In the summer of 2006, the cycle repeated. This time there was a massive wild bird H5N1 outbreak at the largest lake in Mongolia, Uva Lake near the Russia / Mongolia border. Most countries again denied H5N1 infections in the fall of 2006 and early 2007, but in the summer of 2007, H5N1 was found in multiple wild bird outbreaks in Germany, the Czech Republic, and France. In all cases the H5N1 was the Uva Lake strain, which was a variant of the Qinghai strain. The outbreaks in the summer in Europe signaled more activity in the fall and winter, which happened, and all reports in Europe have been the Uva Lake strain. Thus, the role of wild birds in the transport and transmission of H5N1 in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa is quite clear, fatally flawed live wild bird screening notwithstanding.

[Klaus]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02170801/Startled_Experts_H274Y.html

February 17, 2008

Influenza experts admitted Monday they have been startled by the discovery this season of an unexpectedly high number of human flu viruses that appear to be naturally resistant to Tamiflu

The above comments describe the reaction of influenza experts to the sudden and widespread appearance of Tamiflu resistance marker, H274Y, in H1N1 seasonal flu. Although H274Y has been reported previously in seasonal H1N1 in Japan, where oseltamivir dosages for children were somewhat lower than other countries, the earlier outbreaks in Japan were not limited to H1N1. Other Tamiflu resistance markers appeared in H3N2, and these marker increases were many years ago, and quickly faded away.

The current outbreak has appeared suddenly, and has not been reported in Japan (the first 71 H1N1 isoaltes tested did not have H274Y). Reported levels are highest in several countries in Europe, but the recent report of ten cases in Chicago, including eight at one facility, suggest the 16 previously reported cases in the United States this season will rise markedly in the upcoming days.

The experts are startled because H274Y was viewed previously as an adaptive mutation that could compete in the presence of Tamiflu, since wild type H1N1 would be inhibited by the drug, but could not compete in teh absence of Tamiflu. H274Y was thought to create a fitness penalty, which would limit the spread of H274Y in populations where wild type H1N1 was present, and Tamiflu was not.

However, the countries with high levels of H1N1 do not commonly use Tamiflu, and the patients harboring H274Y were not being treated with Tamiflu. Thus, the H274Y in circulation is able to effectively compete in an environment with wild type H1N1, and spreading in the absence of Tamiflu.

Moreover, the “fit” H274Y is not limited to a particular H1N1 strain. Earlier isolates in the US were the older New Caledonia strain, while more recent strains in the US and Europe were the newly emerging Brisbane/59 strain. Moreover, the resistance is limited to H1N1.

The change in human N1 is identical to the N1 change in avian H5N1, which has been treated with Tamiflu blankets. However, Tamiflu blankets can allow for undetected spread of H5N1, especially in mild human cases, which could lead to transfer of H274Y in avian N1 to human N1 in patients co-infected with H5N1 and H1N1.

The movement of H274Y onto human N1 along with additional markers which improved the human N1 fitness would create an human H1N1 which had H274Y and could compete. This new entity could then spread via human to human spread in countries that did not use Tamiflu.

[Klaus]

CDC: Flu season getting worse

ATLANTA (AP) — The flu season is getting worse, and U.S. health officials say it's partly because the flu vaccine doesn't protect against most of the spreading flu bugs.
The flu shot is a good match for only about 40% of this year's flu viruses, officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

That's worse than last week's report when the CDC said the vaccine was protective against roughly half the circulating strains. In good years, the vaccine can fend off 70 to 90%.

Infections from an unexpected strain have been booming, and now are the main agent behind most of the nation's lab-confirmed flu cases, said Dr. Joe Bresee, the CDC's chief of influenza epidemiology.

It's too soon to know whether this will prove to be a bad flu season overall, but it's fair to say a lot of people are suffering at the moment. "Every area of the country is experiencing lots of flu right now," Bresee said.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Atlanta | Type A | CDC | H3N | Dr. Joe Bresee
This week, 44 states reported widespread flu activity, up from 31 last week. The number children who have died from the flu has risen to 10 since the flu season's official Sept. 30 start.

Those numbers aren't considered alarming. Early February is the time of year when flu cases tend to peak. The 10 pediatric deaths, though tragic, are about the same number as was reported at this time in the last two flu seasons, Bresee said.

The biggest surprise has been how poorly the vaccine has performed.

Each winter, experts try to predict which strains of flu will circulate so they can develop an appropriate vaccine for the following season. They choose three strains— two from the Type A family of influenza, and one from Type B.

Usually, the guesswork is pretty good: The vaccines have been a good match in 16 of the last 19 flu seasons, Bresee has said.

But the vaccine's Type B component turned out not to be a good match for the B virus that has been most common this winter. And one of the Type A components turned out to be poorly suited for the Type A H3N2/Brisbane-like strain that now accounts for the largest portion of lab-confirmed cases.

Over the years, the H3N2 flu has tended to cause more deaths, Bresee said.

This week, the World Health Organization took the unusual step of recommending that next season's flu vaccine have a completely different makeup from this year's. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to make its decision about the U.S. vaccine next week.

H3N2 strains are treatable by Tamiflu and other antiviral drugs, but the other, H1N1 Type A strains are more resistant. Of all flu samples tested this year, 4.6% have been resistant to antiviral medications. That's up from less than 1% last year.

"This represents a real increase in resistance," Bresee said.

[Klaus]

H5N1 Found In MOSQUITOES
From Patricia Doyle, PhD
2-20-8

This confirms the obvious. Mosquitoes are man's deadliest enemy and they can, and do,
vector ANY virus, including HIV. Once a mosquito has fed upon an infected animal...bird or chicken, for example,
- or an infected human - they become instant carriers of the disease. Viruses can remain in the digestive tract of a mosquito for
days, or they can reside on and in the mouth parts of the insect and are easily injected into the next animal or person bitten. -ed


Source: Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2008 Feb;8(1):105-110
Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus In Mosquitoes

Collected From Thai Poultry Farm

The abstract reproduced below is from a paper published in the current issue of Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases. The paper is titled: "Detection of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus from Mosquitoes Collected in an Infected Poultry Farm in Thailand. The authors are Barbazan P, Thitithanyanont A, Misse D, Dubot A, Bosc P, Luangsri N, Gonzalez JP, Kittayapong P.; at the Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University at Salaya, Nakhonpathom, Thailand, and Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, IRD-UR 178, Paris, France.

"Blood-engorged mosquitoes were collected at poultry farms during an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Central Thailand during October 2005. These mosquitoes tested positive for H5N1 virus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Results were confirmed by limited sequencing of the H5 and N1 segments.

Infection and replication of this virus in the C6/36 mosquito cell line was confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR. However, transmission by mosquitoes was not evaluated, and further research is needed. Collecting and testing mosquitoes engorged with the blood of domestic or wild animals could be a valuable tool for veterinary and public health authorities who conduct surveillance for H5N1 virus spread."

http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/abs/10.1089/vbz.2007.0142

ProMed Mail
Communicated by
Shamsudeen Fagbo
oloungbo@yahoo.com

Patricia A. Doyle DVM, PhD
Bus Admin, Tropical Agricultural Economics
Univ of West Indies