Terrorist Threat

[Petronas]

Tightening al-Qaeda's European grip
Feb 19, 2005

RABAT - When he was arrested in Dubai in July 2001, Djamel Beghal, a French Algerian already known to French services, confessed he had been ordered by Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to set up a terrorist cell to strike US interests in France. He admitted he had attended meetings in Afghanistan's training camps in preparation to blow up the US Embassy in Paris. But when he was later extradited to France, Beghal denied any involvement in terrorist activities. During his trial in Paris, Beghal delivered a detailed testimony accusing Emirates interrogators of having psychologically and physically tortured him to accept an already established scenario. "This attack never existed, neither in my imagination, nor in reality," said Beghal.

Beghal, who is being judged with five co-defendants, is accused of recruiting terrorists and leading a terrorist cell in France with ramifications throughout Western Europe in Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom. Last week, the prosecution requested a 10-year prison sentence against Beghal, 39, and his suspected accomplice Kamel Daoudi, 30, the legal maximum for the "association of bandits in connection with a terrorist enterprise". The verdict is expected on March 15.

Beghal's arrest subsequently led to the dismantlement of the so-called "Beghal network" in Corbeil-Essonnes, France, where he had lived until 1997, before leaving for the United Kingdom - where he met the influential Salafist preacher Abu Qatada - and later Germany and Pakistan. The kamikaze in the alleged planned attack would have been Tunisian Nizar Trabelsi, a former soccer player. Trabelsi was arrested in Belgium in September 2001, two days after the September 11 attacks, and sentenced to 10 years in jail two years later. He admitted he was preparing a terrorist attack, but said his target was a military base in Belgium.

Beghal's main co-defendant Kamel Daoudi, a computer scientist suspected of taking care of the logistics, was arrested in England and extradited to France. Last June, four members of the network were sentenced in the Netherlands, including French convert Jerome Courtailler. Like Zakarias Moussaoui and shoe bomber Richard Reid, among others, Beghal attended the now famous Finsbury Park mosque led by Abu Hamza al-Masri. Several well-known Islamic radicals - among whom many have been involved in terrorism plots - found sanctuary in Great Britain, a country labelled "soft" on religious extremism.

From the early 1990s, North African militants - mainly immigrants who failed to fully integrate into their host country and turned to radical Islam, and a few converts - established sleeper cells in several European countries. At that time the ongoing Algerian civil war was partly fought from Europe, from the French neighborhoods to London, where Islamic leaders organized their support for armed groups in their war against the Algerian state. According to experts, Algerian-linked terrorist groups were actually prominent until 2001. "They were fierce, they had grand schemes [they hijacked an Air France airbus leaving for Paris in 1994]," says Evan Kohlmann, author of al-Qaeda's Jihad in Europe.

Most al-Qaeda cells discovered in Europe have links to the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat, known by its acronym GSPC, an organization suspected in several terrorist plots in Europe and the United States. A splinter group of the Armed Islamic Groups (GIA), GSPC was created under the initiative of bin Laden by GIA emir Hassan Hattab in 1998. A year earlier, the GIA had started losing foreign support due to its massive slaughter of Algerian civilians. Bin Laden, who had previously supported the GIA, financed this new Salafist organization which would distinguish itself from the then discredited GIA in order to continue to fight the "jihad" in Algeria.

The GSPC is accused of planning attacks during the soccer World Cup held in Paris in 1998 and against the Strasbourg Christmas market and cathedral in 2000. "GSPC remains a grave threat in Europe. There are networks linked to al-Qaeda and GSPC in England, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain ... This network of North Africans will continue to be a threat to international security in the short and long term," explains researcher Jonathan Schanzer.

According to Kohlmann, the Algerian branch is "still there but not as influential" today. More recent organizations like the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM), "the children of the GIA and GSPC", learned from their predecessors' mistakes and are now taking the lead of the terrorist network in the region. The GICM was involved in the terrorist attacks in Casablanca in May 2003 and Madrid in March 2004.

But although it has been weakened due to heavy losses in its ranks, the GSPC continues to be a nightmare for Algerian security services. On January 3, 18 soldiers and militiamen were killed in an ambush set up by the GSPC in the area of Biskra. Two policemen were later killed and one civilian was injured when suspected GSPC militants attacked a foot patrol in Tizi Ghenif, 100 kilometers southeast of Algiers. While vowing to maintain efforts to fight the GSPC, Algerian authorities have publicly expressed satisfaction at the near eradication of the GIA. With the killing last July of former GIA chief Rachid Oukali - alias Abou Tourab - publicly announced, as well as the death last December of its last chief Younes - alias Lyes - they proudly claimed only "about 30" GIA fighters were still at large.

The GIA, responsible for the blind murder of civilians, the targeted killings of intellectuals and the Paris metro bombings in 1995, had greatly declined in recent years. An amnesty launched in 1999 by Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, followed by hundreds of fighters, divided the group, already torn by internal power struggles. Lately, amid a heated debate surrounding an expansion of the amnesty, Algerian leaders promised the same fate to the GSPC, which has lost several members in military operations in recent months. But last Sunday, the GSPC announced the exclusion of its founder Hattab, officially for accepting the amnesty proposal.

The group is now part of the global al-Qaeda nebula. Recently, it re-expressed its ties to al-Qaeda by vowing allegiance to al-Zarqawi. In a statement on January 24, GSPC leader Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud expressed his congratulations to al-Zarqawi in response to the latter's message to international al-Qaeda "affiliate" organizations, among which the GSPC was included. Despite its weakening presence at home, the group may indeed be poised to pursue a different path on both shores of the Mediterranean Sea.

"The European network of the GSPC is sufficiently distinct and separate from its Algerian counterpart that it can survive independently," explains Kohlmann. "I think it is significant that Hassan Hattab has surrendered [apparently] because he was not in favor of using international terrorism as a prime instrument of policy. Those who have succeeded him in the GSPC harbor no such reservations. You might say that Hattab's downfall may ironically serve to remove a previous political roadblock to GSPC-inspired terrorist attacks in Europe."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GB19Aa02.html

[Petronas]

Scientists enlist cosmic rays to fight terrorism
Tuesday, February 22, 2005

WASHINGTON: Cosmic ray detectors, already used to look into the great Cheops pyramid in Egypt, could be enlisted to peer into cargo holds in a bid to prevent possible terror attacks, scientists said. The detectors read muon particles, which are more powerful than gamma or so-called X-rays. They would peek into the millions of shipping containers entering the United States by air, ship and land, to detect even nuclear materials wrapped in lead, physicist Chris Morris of Los Alamos National Laboratory told a conference this weekend of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

“Existing radiographic methods are inefficient for detecting shielded nuclear materials and present radiation hazards to inspectors and vehicle passengers,” Morris said. And, he said, the muon rays are already around, and represent no additional risk to anyone. The possibility of a nuclear or radiological “dirty bomb” has haunted US authorities since the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. However, just five percent of the millions of containers entering the country can be examined with existing equipment. “We believe we’ve worked through all of the major obstacles to building a prototype system for a range of security scenarios,” said Larry Schultz, also of Los Alamos National Laboratory, and a member of the team with physicist Rick Chartrand at Los Alamos.

Unlike X-rays in the dentist’s office, which emanate from one point, muons from space hit the Earth from all angles. So the challenge for any detection system is to improve computer algorithms to allow tomographic reconstruction, the scientists said. Their device would measure the muon’s path and energy as it comes in, and as it comes out the other side, of an object, such as a container. Comparing how much energy it loses and how much it diverged from a straight line as it passed through allows a computer to sketch the object inside, said Kanetada Nagamine, of KEK Muon Science Laboratory in Japan. Because the muon is so powerful, it can penetrate plutonium, uranium and lead, as well as steel and aluminum. That means a muon machine could sniff out a bomb, nuclear materials or a lead casing meant to block other, lesser X-rays, Schultz said.

The margin of error, including triggering false positives or missing the real thing, is less than three percent - something that Chartrand said will improve with time. A million-dollar muon detector could scan a truck in 20 seconds or a shipping container in a minute, he said. Muon detectors are already used in Japan to view the innards of volcanos in hopes of predicting their eruptions. Nagamine, a geophysicist, told reporters that he had examined several volcanos with the equipment, and has measured the amount of lava in the crater of one.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_22-2-2005_pg4_7

[Petronas]

Interpol sounds bio-terror alarm
Wednesday, 23 February, 2005, 01:44 GMT

The world is ill prepared for the looming threat of a biological terror attack, the head of Interpol has said. Ronald Noble told the BBC the danger of an al-Qaeda attack had not diminished since the 9/11 strikes on the US. The head of the global police body also denied governments had played up the risks for political gain. "I don't think it is the sounding of false alarms," Mr Noble said, citing recent evidence. "I think the alarm is real and it is continuing to ring."

Recent attacks around the world; indications that al-Qaeda plans to use biological and chemical weapons; and its statements claiming "the right to kill up to 4 million people" are "enough evidence for me to be concerned", Mr Noble said. In an exclusive interview with the BBC's Ten O'Clock News, he warned that the potential cost of a biological terror attack left no room for complacency. "When you talk about bio-terrorism, that's one crime we can't try to solve after it happens because the harm will be too great. How could we ever forgive ourselves if millions or hundreds... or tens of thousands of people were killed simply because our priorities did not include bio-terrorism?"

Around 400 police officers and health officials from around the world are going to the French city of Lyons next month to attend a bio-terrorism conference - the biggest ever organised by Interpol. Mr Noble acknowledged that governments and security agencies were better organised against the threat than ever before - but "none of us can let our guards down and assume that the problem has been addressed".

Were al-Qaeda to launch a "spectacular biological attack which could cause contagious disease to be spread, no entity in the world is prepared for it", he said. "Not the US, not Europe, not Asia, not Africa." Interpol's bio-terrorism conference, due to start on 1 March, will seek to encourage intelligence agencies and police forces to share information and co-operate more closely against the biological terrorism threat.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4289485.stm

[Petronas]

‘Theft of Russian nuclear material has occurred’
Thursday, February 24, 2005

WASHINGTON: US intelligence agencies have concluded that theft of radioactive materials from Russia’s nuclear complex “has occurred” and the country’s atomic power plants remain vulnerable to terrorist attack, according to a new intelligence report obtained late Tuesday. The unpublished analysis by the National Intelligence Council, a CIA-based think tank that serves the entire US intelligence community, came as US President George W Bush prepared for a potentially contentious meeting Thursday with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

The two leaders are expected to discuss in Bratislava what is seen here as flaws in the Russian democratic process as well as non-proliferation issues, including the security of Moscow’s nuclear stockpile. Russian officials have repeatedly denied terrorist groups could get access to either Russian nuclear weapons or weapons-grade materials. But in its report to Congress, an unclassified version of which was obtained by AFP, the council cast doubt on these assurances. “We assess that undetected smuggling has occurred, and we are concerned about the total amount of material that could have been diverted or stolen in the last 13 years,” the report said.

The Russian nuclear arsenal is estimated to currently include about 4,000 warheads deployed on land- and sea-based ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. But Moscow also retains several thousand non-strategic nuclear warheads in storage, plus a network of production and research facilities dealing with fissile substances, according to US officials. The US intelligence community, according to the report, retains high confidence in safeguards built around battle-ready weapons. But, said the council, “we continue to be concerned about vulnerabilities to an insider who attempts unauthorized actions as well as potential terrorist attacks.” Suspected terrorists have already shown their interest in the Russian nuclear arsenal, according to the report.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_24-2-2005_pg4_5

[Petronas]

Government unsure how many shoulder-fired missiles are missing
:35 p.m. February 24, 2005

WASHINGTON – It has been known for years that thousands of light and lethal shoulder-fired missiles are in black-market circulation. What is not known is exactly who has them and whether many have fallen into the hands of terrorists or criminals. A worrisome puzzle, it explains why the United States and Russia signed an agreement Thursday to cooperate in destroying surplus Soviet-era SA-7s and other portable anti-aircraft missiles. The smallest of these are durable, relatively cheap and easy to smuggle.

The United States also has understandings with several other countries, including Nicaragua, Bosnia, Cambodia and Liberia, for Washington to provide technical assistance or money to destroy anti-aircraft missiles. The State Department estimates that about 1 million shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles have been produced worldwide since the 1950s. The number believed to be in the hands of "nonstate actors," such as terrorist groups, is "in the thousands," the department says.

"What's driving this is concern about the threat to commercial aviation," said Wade Boese, research director at the private Arms Control Association. A single successful missile attack on a passenger plane could paralyze the airline industry, at enormous economic loss, he said. There has been only one known attempt against a commercial airliner outside of a war zone. In November 2002, two surface-to-air missiles barely missed an Israeli charter airliner taking off from the airport in Mombasa, Kenya, with tourists returning to Israel. Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network claimed responsibility for the attempt.

The U.S.-Russian agreement signed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov calls for sharing information about exports of these missiles to third countries. Of note, Boese said, is the absence of a commitment by either Washington or Moscow to halt the exports. The United States began selling its Stinger shoulder-fired missile to foreign countries in 1982. The CIA secretly transferred an estimated 2,000 to Afghanistan mujahedeen rebels in the mid-1980s, and they were used to down hundreds of Soviet helicopters and transport aircraft.

When the war against the Soviets ended in 1989, the CIA began offering to buy back the Stingers for as much as $150,000 apiece. In his book "Ghost Wars," author Steve Coll wrote that as recently as 1996 the CIA estimated there were about 600 Stingers still unaccounted for in Afghanistan. There also are an unknown number of SA-7 and other types of shoulder-fired missiles in the hands of insurgents in Iraq.

A study published last year by the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, said the U.S. government's records on exports of shoulder-fired missiles are "neither complete nor reliable." The GAO said the Army and the office within the Pentagon that manages arms transfers have conflicted figures on missile exports. One says 7,551 Stingers have been sold abroad since 1982 and the other puts the figure at 8,331. One says Egypt bought 89; the other says Egypt bought none. The biggest buyer over the period was Taiwan, with more than 2,200, followed by Denmark with 1,140; Japan with between 871 and 1,025, and Italy with as many as 885.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/terror/20050224-1435-missilethreat.html

[Petronas]

U.S. prepares for germ attack
Posted: February 23, 2005 1:00 a.m. Eastern

The world's richest governments are looking to create an international germ-warfare crisis center and vaccine bank as "a matter of top priority." According to Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor, the Group of Seven industrialized countries, also known as the G7, has agreed to locate the center in Canada's capital city of Ottawa, and will work in tandem with the United Nations' World Health Organization. The goal is to battle the threat of mass infections which could claim the lives of millions, whether sparked intentionally by terrorists or occurring naturally.

Joining the effort to defuse the threat of bio-terror attacks are some of the world's most advanced germ-warfare establishments originally built by the Soviets in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. "The Soviets are believed to have utilized as many as 50 biological agents in their weapons program, genetically engineering some of them to be resistant to antibiotics," reports Jane's. "Soviet Cold War secrets are now being used in the development of defenses against biological weapons of mass destruction."

Still, said U.S. Health Secretary Tommy Thompson, "despite our best efforts, we must concede that the terrorists can still hit any of us at any time." Thompson's comments were echoed by other foreign leaders. "A biological terror attack is not a virtual threat. It is a real threat," said Philippe Douste-Blazy, the French minister of health. British Health Secretary John Reid added, "The price of security is eternal vigilance, intelligence, surveillance, awareness and preparations to respond to such attacks."

The nations officially involved in the program not only include the G7 (the U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan), but also Mexico and the European Union as a whole. Russia is reportedly not interested, "perhaps because of the vast Cold War germ-warfare facilities and expertise that it has inherited from the Soviets," according to Jane's. On Jan. 26, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security decided to move forward with its long proposed $130 million National Bio-defense Analysis and Countermeasures Center in Maryland to handle immediate and future germ-warfare threats.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=42999

[SmokedYourDSM]

Taken from TB2K.... this is serious because it is indeed true and has been verified that something DID set off the detectors... There are few possibilities of what could have set it off.. ill give ya one guess to what it potentially could be.

[ALERT!]Gamma Radiation Alert--O.C.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This will be quick...this is all I know. We were just contacted by Border Patrol checkpoint south of San Onofre with a "Gamma Radiation Alert"--we're guessing something just went through the checkpoint that set off their gamma radiation sensors. I've never had this alert before here at the Fire Department. As soon as I know anything else I will share. I am very busy now with calls, so as soon as I can get back, I'll let you all know. PLEASE keep your eyes open to media. I do not have access to TV right now.
__________________

[Petronas]

San Onofre has a nuclear power plant, I believe. One of the three units is in the process of being decommissioned.

[Casey]

Terrorist Threat Archive
http://www.afghanistanwar.com/showthread.php?t=86

[MohammedAli]

Shoulder-fired missiles that nobody has ever used. Mini nukes of which not even one has ever been produced as evidence. Germ warfare weapons (a la WMDs in Iraq infamy). Chemical weapons in the hands of terrorists? Show us the evidence, even one iota of evidence. It has never been produced.

What we have seen are the moms and dads, the sisters and brothers, aunts, uncles, and cousins of all the hundreds of thousands of children and babies murdered by US government / military policies in the middle east, Africa, and elsewhere. We see them coming at us in bomb-laden cars and commandeered, fuel-laden aircraft in revenge against the murderous, oil seeking western powers of lies, deceptions, and slaughter of innocents. We see them doing exactly what any normal human being would choose to do whose cities and families are being murdered en mass. And all you no-goods can do is to vilify them.

I do not blame those people for wanting to kill you, and I would kill you too and give my life to do it under those circumstances. As a matter of fact, back in the early 1970s I was putting together just such an airplane attack against government in Florida, but obviously I did not follow through with it.

I say fuck you Amerikkkans who need to bolster you views of reality with lies and deceptions. If you need to use lies to back your arguments and views, then there is something very wrong with your views.

As any society would do, they have raised up leaders and friends to take the fight to their enemies---and you are the enemy. A just God has raised up friends to fight their battles for them. If I were you Amerikans and the lackey-led coalition members invading Iraq, I would refuse to follow orders and get the hell out of those people's territories. LEAVE THEM ALONE.

[Casey]

Hey John,

Rant & Rave is the place to really tell us how you feel. Get as mad as you want.

http://www.wincoast.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=2

[Scooter]

I'm guessing he either didn't read that user agreement on sign up...or he just doesn't give a damn. Too bad, really...this isn't the only place he's venting his spleen.

[Casey]

I'm guessing he either didn't read that user agreement on sign up...or he just doesn't give a damn. Too bad, really...this isn't the only place he's venting his spleen.
Yes, he wants to be heard. Just Google his name. He's all over the Internet.

[Petronas]

Annan: Nuclear terror a real risk
Thursday, 10 March, 2005, 15:51 GMT

Terrorists must be denied the means to carry out a devastating nuclear attack, the UN secretary general has told an anti-terror summit in Madrid. Kofi Annan was setting out a global strategy to fight terrorism which calls for preventive and deterrent measures - without sacrificing human rights. Mr Annan said the time had come to outlaw terrorism in all its forms. The summit comes nearly a year after the 11 March bomb attacks on Madrid trains which left 191 dead. About 400 international experts and academics have spent three days discussing ways to combat terrorism while maintaining democracy.

Mr Annan said priorities included making it difficult for terrorists to travel, receive financial support and obtain nuclear material. He urged UN member states to adopt the international convention on nuclear terrorism. "Nuclear terrorism is still often treated as science fiction - I wish it were. "But unfortunately we live in a world of excess hazardous materials and abundant technological know-how, in which some terrorists clearly state their intention to inflict catastrophic casualties," he said. "Were such an attack to occur, it would not only cause widespread death and destruction, but would stagger the world economy and thrust tens of millions of people into dire poverty," he said. "That such an attack has not yet happened is no excuse for complacency. Rather, it gives us a last chance to take effective preventive action."

He set out the five-point strategy as the need to:

- dissuade disaffected groups from choosing terrorism as a tactic to achieve their goals,

- deny terrorists the means to carry out their attacks,

- deter states from supporting terrorists,

- develop state capacity to prevent terrorism,

- defend human rights in the struggle against terrorism.

"It should be clearly stated, by all possible moral and political authorities, that terrorism is unacceptable under any circumstances and in any culture," Mr Annan added. Spanish King Juan Carlos also addressed the summit on Thursday.

Among the tasks for delegates at earlier sessions of the International Summit on Democracy, Terrorism and Security, was to decide on a universally acceptable definition of terrorism. The conference was organised by the Club of Madrid - a group of more than 40 former heads of state. The experts are due to issue a Madrid Agenda, with guidelines on how to tackle the terror threat while preserving democratic values and traditions. Organisers planned the conference to coincide with the anniversary of the Madrid attacks to "honour the courageous people of Madrid who have suffered immeasurable grief since the 11 March attacks and set out a way forward".

Twenty-two people have been jailed so far in connection with the bombings. The attack was claimed by a Moroccan cell with links to al-Qaeda, and most of the arrested are Moroccan citizens. On Friday, the final day of the event, a minute's silence will be observed to mark the anniversary of the attack, which injured 1,900 people.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4336713.stm

[Casey]

Pakistani, Afghan officials, top U.S. general skeptical of al-Qaeda's ability to launch new attacks with WMD

By Paul Haven
ASSOCIATED PRESS
10:42 a.m. March 13, 2005

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – Senior Bush administration officials have warned in recent weeks that al-Qaeda is regrouping for another massive attack, its agents bent on acquiring nuclear, chemical or biological weapons in a nightmare scenario that could dwarf the horror of Sept. 11.

But in Pakistan and Afghanistan – where Osama bin Laden and his chief deputy are believed to be hiding – intelligence agents, politicians and a top U.S. general paint a different picture.

They say a relentless military crackdown, the arrests last summer of several men allegedly involved in plans to launch attacks on U.S. financial institutions, and the killing in September of a top Pakistani al-Qaeda suspect wanted in a number of attacks – including the 2002 killing of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl and two failed assassination attempts against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf – have effectively decapitated al-Qaeda.

Pakistani intelligence agents told The Associated Press that it has been months since they picked up any "chatter" from suspected al-Qaeda men, and longer still since they received any specific intelligence on the whereabouts of bin Laden or any plans to launch a specific attack

They say the trail of the world's most wanted man – long-since gone cold – has turned icier than the frigid winter snows that blanket the mountains between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the terror mastermind is considered most likely to be hiding.

Pakistani officials have been quick to hail the long silence as a signal that it has already dismantled bin Laden's network, at least in this part of the world.

"We have broken the back of al-Qaeda," Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao said last month in a speech in Peshawar, the capital of the frontier province on the border with Afghanistan. Musharraf added last week that his government had "eliminated the terrorist centers" in the Waziristan tribal region and elsewhere.

"We have broken their communication system. We have destroyed their sanctuaries," the president told reporters. "They are not in a position to move in vehicles. They are unable to contact their people. They are on the run."

A senior official in Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency told AP he couldn't remember the last time the agency got a strong lead on top-level al-Qaeda fighters.

"Last year, we frequently heard Arabs on radios talking about their hatred for (Afghan President Hamid) Karzai and Musharraf for supporting Americans, and we were able to trace al-Qaeda hideouts in South Waziristan," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Lately, such conversations have decreased."

Pakistan's optimism seems to be backed by senior U.S. military officials in the region.

Maj. Gen. Eric Olson, the No. 2 American commander in Afghanistan, said he had seen nothing to indicate that al-Qaeda was attempting to get its hands on nuclear or biological weapons.

There is "no evidence that they're trying to acquire a terrorist weapon of that type and, frankly, I don't believe that they are regrouping," he told AP in a Feb. 25 interview.

"I think the pressure on them here, the pressure on them in Pakistan, the pressure on them in Iraq, is pretty great and it makes very difficult for them to operate," Olson added.

The skeptical assessments from officials here fly in the face of warnings out of Washington, where President Bush is pushing Congress to approve a $419 billion defense budget for 2006.

The Homeland Security Department late last month issued a classified bulletin to officials that bin Laden was enlisting his top operative in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to plan potential attacks on the United States.

There have also long been fears – though no evidence to date – that rogue Pakistani nuclear scientists might have provided bin Laden's men with the know-how to build a crude atomic device or dirty bomb.

Newly installed CIA director Porter Goss and other senior American intelligence and military officials warned last month that terrorists are preparing for new strikes.

"It may be only a matter of time before al-Qaeda or other groups attempt to use chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons," Goss said at the Senate Intelligence Committee's annual hearing on threats, urging approval of the defense budget.

But Sherpao scoffed at such warnings.

"That is simply out of the question," he said of al-Qaeda's ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction, adding that any al-Qaeda leader who has escaped arrest was "more worried about their own safety."

"How can such people launch attacks with nuclear or chemical weapons?" he asked.

Maj. Gen. Olson, who leaves Afghanistan next month to return to the 25th Infantry Division back in Hawaii, said al-Qaeda leaders were unable to use modern communications for fear of detection and were reduced to "16th century" techniques such as couriers. He said he wasn't discouraged by the success bin Laden and his deputy have had in releasing audio and videotapes filled with threats during the past few months.

"They can deliver all the videotapes they want, as long as they're not delivering weapons that can kill large numbers of people and I am convinced that their ability to coordinate large attacks like that is severely disrupted right now because of the pressure we have on them," he said.


Associated Press writers Munir Ahmad in Islamabad, Pakistan, Zarar Khan in Karachi and Stephen Graham in Orgun, Afghanistan contributed to this report.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/terror/20050313-1042-al-qaida-wmdthreat.html

[Petronas]

Feds Catalogue Possible Terror Attacks
Mar 16, 2005 8:34 am US/Eastern

WASHINGTON (AP) The agency charged with protecting homeland security developed an elaborate, confidential report to alert states to a host of terror-strike scenarios, but the document was inadvertently posted on several states’ public Web sites before being removed. The department has been working for a year on a National Planning Scenarios plan that outlines a number of plausible attacks -- including by nerve gas, anthrax, pneumonic plague and truck bomb.

The report, still confidential, was requested by a presidential directive in December 2003 and will be made public in upcoming months, Homeland Security spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said Tuesday. It was inadvertently posted on Internet sites of several states, including Hawaii, before it was taken down, Roehrkasse said. The other states were not immediately identified.

Homeland Security “has developed a number of scenarios that will aid federal, state and local homeland security officials in developing plans to become more prepared to prevent and respond to an act of terrorism, should it occur,” Roehrkasse said. The plan also “will help us better target our efforts and resources in improving the nation’s preparedness,” he said. Officials said there was no credible indication that such specific attacks were being planned. The draft plan was first reported Tuesday night on the Internet site of The New York Times.

The report does not hypothesize where such attacks would take place, Roehrkasse said. “The overall goal is to increase the overall baseline preparedness of all states and cities throughout the country,” he said. Besides identifying possible types of attacks, Roehrkasse said the report also estimates how many deaths and amount of economic damage the attacks would cause.

According to the Times, they include:

Blowing up a chlorine tank, killing 17,500 people and injuring more than 100,000.

Spreading pneumonic plague in the bathrooms of an airport, sports arena and train station, killing 2,500 and sickening 8,000 worldwide.

Infecting cattle with foot and mouth disease in several places, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.

But a nuclear bomb, an exploding liquid chlorine tank or a widespread and prolonged aerosol anthrax spray ranked among the most devastating attacks outlined in the report, Roehrkasse said.

An estimated 350,000 people could be exposed to an anthrax attack by terrorists spraying the biological weapon from a truck driving through five cities over two weeks, according to the report. An estimated 13,200 people could die.

The report also includes scenarios of natural disasters to hit major cities, including a 7.2 magnitude earthquake and a Category 5 hurricane.

http://wcbs880.com/terror/terror_story_075083553.html

[Petronas]

Transnational Threats Update
April 2005
Vol. 3, Issue 6

In this issue:

- Western Europe Faces High Risk of Terrorism
- Al Qaeda in Kosovo
- Guantanamo Detainees Reportedly Give Best Intelligence on Al Qaeda
- Arab Bank Linked to Terrorism Funding
- Australia's Trouble with Russian Organized Crime
- EU Ministers Boost Anticrime Efforts
- Arab Anti-Money Laundering Efforts Stepped Up
- Swiss Report Decrease in Money Laundering but Rise in Terror Funding
- Russia's Money-Laundering Problem Astronomic
- Major European Drug-Trafficking Gang Dismantled
- Growing Rate of Human Trafficking Worldwide

http://www.csis.org/TNT/ttu/

6 pages of worthwhile reading every month...

[Petronas]

How U.S. could be beat
June 19, 2005

Joining Sen. John Kyl, who warned of how an electromagnetic pulse attack threatens U.S. survival, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, chairman of the House Projection Forces Subcommittee, says an EMP attack – even by an underfunded, unsophisticated terrorist group – has the potential to cripple U.S. society. "Today we are very much concerned ... about asymmetric weapons," said Bartlett. "We are a big, powerful country. Nobody can contend with us shoulder-to-shoulder, face-to-face. So all of our potential adversaries are looking for what we refer to as asymmetric weapons. That is a weapon that overcomes our superior capabilities. There is no asymmetric weapon that has anywhere near the potential of EMP."

EMP attacks are generated when a nuclear weapon is detonated at altitudes above a few dozen kilometers above the Earth's surface. The explosion, of even a small nuclear warhead, would produce a set of electromagnetic pulses that interact with the Earth's atmosphere and the Earth's magnetic field. "These electromagnetic pulses propagate from the burst point of the nuclear weapon to the line of sight on the Earth's horizon, potentially covering a vast geographic region in doing so simultaneously, moreover, at the speed of light," said Dr. Lowell Wood, acting chairman of the commission appo9inted by Congress to study the threat. "For example, a nuclear weapon detonated at an altitude of 400 kilometers over the central United States would cover, with its primary electromagnetic pulse, the entire continent of the United States and parts of Canada and Mexico."

The commission, in its work over a period of several years, found that EMP is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold American society seriously at risk and that might also result in the defeat of U.S. military forces. "The electromagnetic field pulses produced by weapons designed and deployed with the intent to produce EMP have a high likelihood of damaging electrical power systems, electronics and information systems upon which any reasonably advanced society, most specifically including our own, depend vitally," Wood said. "Their effects on systems and infrastructures dependent on electricity and electronics could be sufficiently ruinous as to qualify as catastrophic to the American nation."

The commission concluded in its report to Congress earlier this year: "EMP is one of a small number of threats that may hold at risk the continued existence of today's U.S. civil society.''

"The number of U.S. adversaries capable of EMP attack is greater than during the Cold War," said Bartlett. "We may look back with some fondness on the Cold War. We then had only one potential adversary. We knew him quite well." Bartlett pointed out that Iran has tested launching of a Scud missile from a surface vessel, "a launch mode that could support a national or transnational EMP attack against the United States."

"Iran has conducted tests with its Shahab-3 missile that have been described as failures by the Western media because the missiles did not complete their ballistic trajectories, but were deliberately exploded at high altitude," he said. "This, of course, would be exactly what you would want to do if you were going to use an EMP weapon. Iran described these tests as successful. We said they were a failure because they blew up in flight. They described them as successful. Of course, they would be, if Iran's intent was practicing for an EMP attack."...

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/006714.php

[Petronas]

Saudi Expert: Al-Qaida Plans 'Catastrophic' Attack
Thursday, June 16, 2005 1:39 p.m. EDT

Al-Qaida is far from being neutralized and is planning its next "catastrophic" attack, according to a top expert on the terrorist organization. Dr. Saad al-Faqih, who heads the Saudi opposition group Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia, was asked in an interview in London if there is any credence to reports of al-Qaida's "demise." His response was chilling:

"Nobody knows how al-Qaida really works. Consider, for instance, that the time lapse between the Africa embassy bombings and 9/11 was more than three years. Therefore the fact that no major attack has taken place since 9/11 is not altogether very surprising. Al-Qaida is an extremely resilient organization and it will most likely surprise everybody by how, when and where it executes its next catastrophic attack."

Asked when a weapons of mass destruction attack is likely to take place, Dr. al-Faqih said: "It could happen at any time."

The al-Qaida expert told interviewer Mahan Abedin – an editor with the Jamestown Foundation's publication Terrorism Monitor - that the terrorist organization's operations in Saudi Arabia have been severely damaged by government offensives. "But of course al-Qaida is an ideology and its potency cannot be reduced to the number of men in its ranks," he cautioned. "Moreover, the invasion and occupation of Iraq gave al-Qaida a huge boost and the Saudi government has indirectly admitted that at least 2,500 Saudis are fighting in Iraq."

Al-Faqih said that for the first time, the Saudi government has begun to talk about the problem of Saudis returning to the kingdom after fighting against the Americans in Iraq. "A classified interior ministry report claims that at least 200 have returned and are currently plotting attacks inside the Kingdom. An attack on the royals will likely be carried out by returnees from Iraq."

But al-Faqih acknowledged that al-Qaida's activities in Saudi Arabia have turned many Saudis against the organization. "Al-Qaida has lost ground militarily, politically and ideologically. Attacking civilians proved to be a major blunder and it remains to be seen whether they can fully recover from it. Also, by attacking the security forces they lost a lot of sympathy inside these organizations." The feeling in Saudi society today is no longer particularly sympathetic toward al-Qaida, according to al-Faqih. "The situation was very different two or three years ago, when ordinary people were willing to give the jihadis shelter and other forms of support."

Al-Faqih also predicted that 'al-Qaida in Iraq' leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would likely be killed soon – and said that ordinary Saudis view their government's support for the occupation of Iraq as "treason.”

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/6/16/134231.shtml

[Petronas]

Risk of WMD attack on the rise
Thursday, June 23, 2005

WASHINGTON: A new survey released here this week says the possibility of a weapons of mass destruction (WMD) attack against a city or other target somewhere in the world is real and increasing over time.

The survey, in which a large number of experts participated, was made by Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The majority of those surveyed said that even within the short time frame of the next five years, the risks of a WMD attack were judged to be substantial. The median estimate of the risk of a nuclear attack during the next five years was 10 percent. The average estimate was 16.4 percent. When the time-frame was extended to 10 years, the median response doubled to 20 percent and the average response almost doubled to 29.2 percent. The estimates of the risks of a biological or chemical attack during the same time periods were each judged to be comparable to or slightly higher than the risk of a nuclear attack.

According to Sen Lugar’s report, the group saw the risk of a radiological attack as significantly higher. The median and average estimates of risk were 25 percent and 27.1 percent respectively over the next five years. Over 10 years, both the median and the average estimate of risk jumped to 40 percent. The median estimate of the probability of a radiological attack over 10 years was twice as high as the estimate for a nuclear or biological attack during the same period. “If one compounds these answers, the odds of some type of WMD attack occurring during the next decade are extremely high.

The report said, “Because the risks of each individual type of WMD attack are not statistically independent, one cannot calculate the risk of a WMD attack by just compounding through mathematical formula the median or average percentages for a nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological attack. But the survey responses suggest that the estimated combined risk of a WMD attack over five years is as high as 50 percent. Over 10 years this risk expands to as much as 70 percent.”

Experts were broadly agreed that nuclear weapons will proliferate to new countries in the coming years. Estimates of how many countries would be added to the nuclear club over the next five and 10 years were consistent. Large majorities judged that one to two new nuclear nations would be added during the next five years and that two to five would be added during the next 10 years.

Answers diverged somewhat when the group was asked to estimate how many new nuclear states would emerge over 20 years, but almost three-quarters estimated a number between four and 10. There was strong, though not universal, agreement that a nuclear attack is more likely to be carried out by a terrorist than by a government in the next 10 years. The group of experts was split 45 percent to 55 percent on whether terrorists were more likely to obtain an intact working nuclear weapon or manufacture one after obtaining weapons grade nuclear material.

A majority of the group designated a black market purchase as the most likely method by which terrorists could obtain nuclear weapons or fissile material. Almost four-fifths of the experts surveyed said that their country was not spending enough on nonproliferation objectives. None of the experts believed that their country was spending too much on non-proliferation. More than half of the experts recommended an increase of 50 percent or more in their nation’s non-proliferation budget. The majority of experts said the top non-proliferation priority should be to secure and dismantle weapons and materials of mass destruction in the former Soviet Union. The second most frequently listed ‘top goal’ was containing the nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea. The experts had a number of different ideas about which area of non-proliferation work was most in need of more attention. The most commonly cited area, by about 10 per cent of respondents, was the need to expand efforts to prevent terrorist use of chemical and biological weapons. Others said we should do more to prevent weapons scientists from selling their knowledge, to shut down black market networks, or to secure ports and shipping.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_23-6-2005_pg4_1

[al-Canine]

FBI: No Specific Terror Threat for July 4

By MARK SHERMAN
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- The FBI says there is no specific, credible threat of a terror attack timed to the Independence Day holiday but is warning law enforcement to remain vigilant because the celebrations are inviting targets.

FBI antiterrorism command posts in several cities, including Washington and Philadelphia, will be manned around-the-clock over the holiday weekend because of special events. The bureau has taken that precaution in Washington and Philadelphia every July 4 since the Sept. 11 attacks.

An intelligence assessment that was distributed this week to FBI offices nationwide said that while there is no specific threat, large gatherings pose a target for international and domestic terrorists, according to a law enforcement official who read it. The official asked not to be named because the FBI does not typically make the intelligence document public.

The muted assessment is in keeping with the reduced level of terror threat "chatter" that administration officials first described in January.

Washington's Fourth of July festivities include a concert by the National Symphony Orchestra and a fireworks display over the National Mall.

Philadelphia will host a crowd predicted at 1 million people for Saturday's Live 8 concert. And the USS Cole, a destroyer attacked by terrorists in Yemen in October 2000, is scheduled for a weekend visit.

___

On the Net:

FBI: http://www.fbi.gov
©*2005*The Associated Press

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/29/AR2005062902499.html

[Petronas]

E-mail today from DHS. This is only the fifth such e-mail I have received from them.

At a press conference this morning, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff announced a targeted raise in the threat level in light of today’s attacks in London, and added: "The thoughts and prayers of the American people are with the victims of this tragedy and our friends in Britain."

Secretary Chertoff explained that the United States Government is raising the threat level from Code Yellow – or Elevated – to Code Orange – or High – targeted only to the mass transit portion of the transportation sector. This only includes regional and inter-city passenger rail, subways and metropolitan bus systems. He added that at this time the United States has no specific, credible information suggesting an imminent attack in the United States, but that the intent of al Qaeda and affiliated organizations to attack in Europe and the United States has been well documented.

You may notice increased law enforcement presence, and as always are requested to immediately report any suspicious activities to local officials. Thank you for your continued vigilance.

Please do not reply to this email. For questions, you may contact the TSA Contact Center toll-free at 1-866-289-9673 or you may also E-mail us at TSA-ContactCenter@dhs.gov.

[Petronas]

Chronology of Terrorist Attacks Against Public Transit

http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/mass-transit-chron.htm

It covers from 1980 through today, and gives date, location, attack method, target, whether a suicide attack, and casualties. I just post the link, as it is a long table (14 pages if printed out).

[Petronas]

A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century

U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command
Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence
Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence – Threats

15 August 2005
Version 3.0

The handbook is a high level terrorism primer that includes an overview of the history of terrorism, descriptions of terrorist behaviors and motivations, a review of terrorist group organizations, and the threat posed to our forces, both in the United States and overseas. Additionally, it provides information on the various terrorist groups, the terrorist planning cycle, operations and tactics, firearms used by terrorists, improvised explosive devices, conventional munitions used by terrorists, and a discussion on weapons of mass destruction. The manual is designed to be used to help train and educate personnel on terrorism and assist units in recognizing the treat they face in planning for operations, both in the Continental United States and overseas.

http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/terrorism/index.html

[diamondgypsy]

A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century

U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command
Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence
Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence – Threats

15 August 2005
Version 3.0

The handbook is a high level terrorism primer that includes an overview of the history of terrorism, descriptions of terrorist behaviors and motivations, a review of terrorist group organizations, and the threat posed to our forces, both in the United States and overseas. Additionally, it provides information on the various terrorist groups, the terrorist planning cycle, operations and tactics, firearms used by terrorists, improvised explosive devices, conventional munitions used by terrorists, and a discussion on weapons of mass destruction. The manual is designed to be used to help train and educate personnel on terrorism and assist units in recognizing the treat they face in planning for operations, both in the Continental United States and overseas.

http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/terrorism/index.html

thanks!
from where?
Homeland Security or...CIA or FBI?

[JaneDoe]

thanks!
from where?
Homeland Security or...CIA or FBI?
fas.org is the Federation of American Scientists website. "The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) was formed in 1945 by atomic scientists from the Manhattan Project.....Today, the Federation continues its 60-year exemplary record of achieving meaningful results in strategic security, with research and education projects in nuclear arms control and global security; conventional arms transfers; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; information technology for human health; and government information policy."

[Petronas]

FAS's website is just one where the guide has been posted. Another one is: http://www.hitechcj.com/homelandsecurity/id7.html

[Petronas]

Interpol, U.N. to test terrorist attack readiness
Fri Nov 25, 2005 7:29 AM ET

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - Interpol will hold a global simulation under the auspices of the United Nations to test the world's readiness to deal with a natural disaster or terrorist attack, a top official said on Friday. "Basically it's looking at what we think will be a real incident, then having a real time response," Lord John Stevens, head of Interpol's Strategic Advisory Panel, told Reuters. The 10-member panel of senior figures in international law enforcement is meeting in Cape Town to help chart a global police response to security threats. Earlier this week, Interpol Secretary-General Ronald Noble said there was a real risk of an international biochemical attack, while security officials remain on high alert for bomb attacks following recent incidents in Britain, Bali and Egypt.

Stevens, a former London police chief, said the panel had unanimously endorsed the proposed exercise, which was likely to happen in New York early next year. Representatives from police forces and international organizations such as the World Health Organization and Civil Aviation Authority would take part. "This will be the first time ... that we will have a world-wide link into a table-top exercise ... it will certainly be next year and perhaps even in the first part of next year," Stevens said. All the lessons that had been learned from last year's Indian Ocean tsunami and from the attacks in New York, London and Bali would be tested again to enhance the response to future events, he said.

http://today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-11-25T122853Z_01_RID544906_RTRUKOC_0_US-SECURITY-INTERPOL.xml

[hound of hell]

http://www.geocities.com/mannah90/BABY.gif
look for israeili terrorism against yong child age 2 month!!!!!
http://www.geocities.com/mannah90/image002.jpg

[Petronas]

Algeria vetoes U.N. anti-terror statement
12.07.05, 19:23

The U.N. Security Council did not issue a statement condemning Monday's terror attack in Netanya , after it failed to agree on a version due to Algeria's objection to the proposed wording. Algeria is not a permanent member of the council, but is currently participating in its meeting as a representative of the Arab countries. The original version of the statement, drafter by the United States, included a harsh denouncement of the bombing, and a demand of Syria to close down the Islamic Jihad offices in Damascus. However, Algeria refused to fall in line with the other member states and sign the statement.

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton issued a statement Wednesday criticizing the Security Council for failing to condemn the attack. Bolton claimed that Algeria prevented the council from publishing a statement despite the fact that Palestinian Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has himself condemned the bombing. According to Bolton, Algeria objected to the reference to Syria and to the reference to Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

It is shameful that the U.N. Security Council is unable to speak up against the Netanya terror attack, Bolton said, adding that if the Security Council fails to do so, the U.S. will. Algeria's U.N. Ambassador Abdallah Baali stressed that he objected to the statement as it was "totally inaccurate and unfair," and that other countries including Russia disputed the proposed version. We are willing to reach an agreement on a version accepted by all, he concluded.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3181005,00.html

[Petronas]

Jihadist Forum Members Discuss the Use of Propane Cylinders in Bombing Operations
August 8, 2005

A recent discussion on a password-protected al-Qaeda affiliated forum concerned the use of propane cylinders in bombing operations, directed against myriad targets, including oil pipelines, buildings, and individuals. The member opening the inquiry proposed using the cylinders on oil pipes, and sought advice as to the advantages of such an operation. Those who replied maintain that it works well, and provides an equivalent destructive power to TNT; however, some members advocate detonating propane cylinders in car bombings, as they acknowledge the Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC) had utilized them, or for attacks upon tanks, like the “brothers in Palestine.”

One member in particular claims to have been a “helping agent in one operation,” and describes using propane cylinders as a component in a car bombing. He also suggests ways to augment the explosions, with the use of shrapnel, benzene, or napalm, or oxygen tanks in lieu of propane, and provides a mini-manual for preparing a car bomb with just the cylinder as the explosive.

http://siteinstitute.org/bin/articles.cgi?ID=publications80505&Category=publications&Subcategory=0

[al-Canine]

Alert: Man photographed trucks, tankers

Nation's truckers asked to be on the lookout

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Department of Homeland Security has tapped the nation's truckers to help find a man who has been seen taking photographs of tanker equipment.

On three separate occasions, the man also asked truck drivers several questions about deliveries and operations, according to the Highway Information Sharing and Analysis Center.

"The individual in question is also reported to have videotaped tank truck operations and deliveries as well as taken photographs of tanker equipment," states the "Be on the Lookout," or BOLO, alert. "Law enforcement has requested assistance in ascertaining the identity or whereabouts of the person in question."

Officials say the man has short, dark, wavy hair and a dark complexion. He is in his early 50s, and truckers who have spoken to him say it sounds like English is his second language. He was last seen driving a white car.

The alert describes three incidents that raised concern: one in Fort Myers, Florida, in April; another in Tampa, Florida, in May; and another in Ringgold, Georgia, in 2004.

The same man is believed to be involved in all three incidents. There have been similar, more recent incidents, but it's not clear whether they involve the same man.

Though the BOLO request was made public this week, several bulletins have gone out to law enforcement officials in the last eight months. None has yielded any useful information.

The BOLO alert emphasizes that the Highway Information Sharing and Analysis Center has received no indication that the man engaged in illegal activity during any of the three incidents.

The information was disseminated by the the Department of Homeland Security's Highway Watch Program.

The primary goal of the program is to help prevent attacks by teaching highway professionals how to avoid becoming a target for terrorists who would use a large vehicle or hazardous cargo as a weapon.

A secondary goal is to train highway professionals to recognize and report suspicious activity.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/01/12/trucker.lookout/index.html

[Petronas]

Al Qaeda Video is 'Green Light' for Attack, Analyst Warns
January 11, 2006

(CNSNews.com) - The recently released video message from al Qaeda's number two leader is part of a pattern that signals a countdown to a major terrorist attack within the next 30 days, warns a Washington D.C.-based analyst. The new video was aired by the Qatar-based al-Jazeera satellite network on Jan. 6. In it Ayman al-Zawahiri portrays U.S. government discussion of troop withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for Islam.

"If your forces with all its aircraft, missiles, tanks and fleets are moaning, bleeding and looking for an escape from Iraq, then will the hypocrites, conspirators, infidels (the Iraqi government) resist what the 'greatest power in the world' has failed to resist?" al-Zawahiri asked.

But it is not the content of the video that is a sign of a possible imminent strike, said terrorism expert Christopher L. Brown. Instead, it is the timing of the video that is consistent with previous patterns. Brown, a researcher with a Washington think tank, has briefed members of Congress and senior administration officials on key threats, and he has prepared testimony and briefing materials for officials at the Department of Defense, State Department, CIA, National Security Council and the White House.

The pattern Brown observed is that each Zawahiri video appears to be part of a pair, with the second video followed by a significant attack within 30 days, outside of the major combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The videos released on Sept. 9 and Nov. 9, 2004, were the first "set" and were followed by the Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, bombings on Dec. 6, 2004. The second "set" of videos was released Feb. 20 and June 26, 2005, followed by the July 7 London bombings. A third set of videos was released Aug. 4 and Sept 1, 2005, followed by the bombings in Bali, Indonesia, on Oct. 1, 2005.

A Cybercast News Service exclusive report on Sept. 8 of last year detailed Brown's warning regarding an impending October attack.

The fourth set of videos, according to Brown's theory was released on Oct. 23, 2005 and last week -- Jan. 6.

"This pattern has held for at least three of al Qaeda's last large-scale attacks," said Brown, "This most recent video is likely a signal that a large-scale operation is about to be launched within the next 30 days. The question is where."

A clue may be found in the Internet postings of the enigmatic Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades, said Brown. The brigades appear to be 'green-lighting' coming attacks prior to the release of the second video of each pair, Brown said.

The video that preceded the London bombings was itself preceded by a post by the "European division" of the brigades under the title, "Letter to mujahedeen in Europe." The posting stated in part, "We now call on the mujahedeen around the world to launch the expected attack." The message appeared on an al Qaeda-linked Internet forum.

Brown believes the larger pattern of two videos sandwiching an Internet posting by the Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades was repeated when a November web message declared that the upcoming attack would occur in the "land of the Romans," widely seen as a reference to Italy.

The Internet posting, under the name of al Qaeda's reputed military commander Saif al-Adel, mentioned future attacks involving unidentified poisonous substances and surface-to-air missiles procured from Chechnya. Brown notes that the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades are overseen by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the top al Qaeda terrorist in Iraq who is also known to have ties to Chechnya.

"It is even more interesting to note that Western intelligence officials believe that al Qaeda has had some of the most advanced Russian man-portable surface-to-air missile systems (the SA-18) within Europe for at least one year."

On Oct. 29, 2005, the London Telegraph reported that Abu Atiya, an al Qaeda operative close to al-Zawahiri, revealed to French authorities that a group called the "Chechen network" entered France with the missiles and chemical and biological agents such as botulin, ricin and cyanide. The missiles were reportedly purchased in 2002 and eventually smuggled through Georgia and Turkey to be used in a planned attack against French airliners in 2004.

Following the London bombings the brigades posted a communique on the Internet, stating: "We are in Italy, and not one of you is safe as long as you refuse [Osama bin Laden's] offer. Get rid of the incompetent (Prime Minister Silvio) Berlusconi or we will truly burn Italy."

A July 19, 2005, story in Italy's Corriere della Sera newspaper indicated that Italian intelligence feared the statement was a coded message activating known cells in Italy, which had previously been providing only logistical support.

Three more messages from the Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades were posted in July, promising to "burn Italy down.

"We will raze the cities of Europe to the ground and you will be the first, Berlusconi!" one of the messages declared. On July 31, the brigades claimed to be "calling up all our cells in Rome and other Italian cities for this war ..." Another Internet message followed in August.

However, the November reference to the "land of the Romans" could be misdirection Brown said, since al Qaeda is known to use coded language in many of its communications. The Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF) has indicated that al Qaeda intentionally labeled Italy as its target, prior to the London bombings.

If the "land of the Romans" doesn't refer to Rome, what might it refer to? Dan Darling of the Manhattan Institute believes it could be a reference to the United States. "It could just as easily apply to the U.S. -- America as the new Rome," said Darling.

Brown also believes the al Qaeda threat could apply to the U.S. and that America is the likelier target.

The "land of the Romans" could be a symbolic reference to the "countless examples of Romanesque architecture in Washington, D.C.," said Brown.

The missiles reportedly obtained from Chechnya have not been located and Brown believes it is possible that some of the weapons have been smuggled into North America since individuals involved in the "Chechen network" who procured the missiles were allegedly involved in the 1999 conspiracy to bomb Los Angeles International Airport.

About Brown's theory of a timing pattern and imminent strike, Dan Darling said "I definitely think there's something behind this theory. One of my earliest observations about al Qaeda is that when people look for patterns they tend to forget to include events in places like Kashmir, Chechnya, Iraq. "

Darling also noted that analysts often fail to take into account thwarted attacks. "Italy has arrested several members of GSPC cells intent on attacking Italy or U.S.-related installations," said Darling. The GSPC is also known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, an Algerian group linked to al Qaeda. Italian officials announced on Dec. 23 that the suspected terrorists had plans to carry out attacks against the U.S. that would have surpassed 9/11.

Terrorism expert B. Raman told Cybercast News Service that Brown's theory is "fascinating" but that he was not in a position to agree or disagree with it.

"I personally feel that while the London explosions were externally inspired from Pakistan, the timing and the modus operandi used were decided locally. I would have difficulty in connecting it to Zawahiri's second message," said Raman. He also believes that Zawahiri's importance as an operational head tends to be over-estimated by many Western analysts.

"I also feel on the basis of my reading of the situation that there is a very high probability of a terrorist strike against Italian lives and interests this year," said Raman.

"In Europe, Al Qaeda's next targets in the order of probability are Italy (its Prime Minister is closely identified with Bush), France (ban on head scarves, its interior minister is hated in the Islamic world) and Germany (its role in Afghanistan)."

Raman is the former head of the counter-terrorism division of the Research & Analysis Wing in India's external intelligence agency and director or the Institute of Topical Studies, Chennai, India.

Italy has been bracing for possible attacks targeting the February Winter Olympics in Turin or the April 9 general elections. Italian Interior Minister Giuseppe Pisanu told media last month, "The global resonance of the Games, and the coincidence with the election campaign could be of great interest to terrorist organizations, which carry out major attacks in order to rock public opinion and influence political stances."

The CIA has declined to comment on Brown's theory. "We don't comment on our own analysis. And we can't comment on Mr. Brown's theory either," said the spokesman.

Regarding the video release pattern, "once can be an interesting anomaly, twice could be a coincidence, but three times is a pattern," Brown said, indicating "that in all likelihood al Qaeda will launch a major attack sometime in the next month."

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewSpecialReports.asp?Page=/SpecialReports/archive/200601/SPE20060111a.html

[al-Canine]

Caller threatens al Qaeda attack on U.N.

Offices closed temporarily in southwest Pakistan, official says

QUETTA, Pakistan (AP) -- A threatening phone call that forced the United Nations to temporarily close offices in southwestern Pakistan said al Qaeda would attack the world body's offices there, the top U.N. official in Pakistan said Tuesday.

The phone call was received Monday by the U.N. High Commission for Refugees, and the United Nations closed all offices in the province of Baluchistan that day and Tuesday, said Jan Vandemoortele, the U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator in Pakistan.

"Al Qaeda was mentioned twice in the phone call," Vandemoortele said, adding that the caller said "they were going to attack the offices."

The call came the same day a suicide bomber drove a motorbike into a crowd at a wrestling match just across the nearby border in Afghanistan, killing 20 people.

That was the third deadly bombing in a little over 24 hours in the former Taliban stronghold of southern Afghanistan, which abuts Baluchistan.

"It was found to be a credible threat," Vandemoortele said. "Since security is priority No. 1 for me, I decided to withdraw our staff from the field."

There have so far been no attacks or suspicious movements against U.N. operations in the region, Vandemoortele said. The world body has about 25 staffers in the region, mostly based in the provincial capital of Quetta.

The United Nations will reassess the security situation on Wednesday and decide then whether to resume operations, he said. It was unclear who made the phone call, but the United Nations was able to log the caller's number and turned it over to authorities.

Pakistani police were investigating the incident, Vandemoortele said.

The United Nations has six main agencies operating in Baluchistan, another U.N. official said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Included in the closures were local offices of the World Food Program and the UNHCR.

Two years ago, aid workers from the United Nations and other international agencies sought refuge in a heavily guarded hotel after Pakistani authorities received intelligence reports that the Taliban were targeting their offices with suicide attacks.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/01/17/un.pakistan.ap/index.html

[Petronas]

Three Algerians arrested in Italy over plot targeting US
January 24, 2006
Tuesday Zil-Haj 23,1426 A.H.

ROME: Three Algerians arrested in an anti-terrorist operation in southern Italy are suspected of being linked to a planned new series of attacks in the United States, Interior Minister Giuseppe Pisanu said on Friday. The attacks would have targeted ships, stadiums or railway stations in a bid to outdo the September 11, 2001 strikes by Al-Qaeda in New York and Washington which killed some 2,700 people, Pisanu said.

The Algerians, suspected of belonging to a cell established by an Al-Qaeda-linked Algerian extremist organisation, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), were named as Achour Rabah, Tartaq Sami and Yasmine Bouhrama.

The first two were arrested Friday in the Salerno area south of Naples, and in Curingia, in the southern Calabria region, respectively. Bouhrama, 32, had been in jail in Naples since November 15 in connection with another investigation of the GSPC. He is believed to be the head of the Salerno cell and to have liaised with other cells in Milan, Brescia and Naples.

The three in custody are also alleged to have procured false papers and funds to finance the GSPC, a hardline fundamentalist movement that rejects the Algerian government's attempt to draw a line under years of Islamist rebellion. Pisanu said Friday's swoop was part of a wider operation involving other countries. Links were uncovered between the GSPC's Italian activities and groups in Britain, the Italian news agency Ansa reported.

http://www.geo.tv/main_files/world.aspx?id=99448

[al-Canine]

a propaganda campaign?

U.S. agencies find no proof of looming al Qaeda attack

By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Despite statements by senior al Qaeda leaders, U.S. intelligence agencies do not have information indicating the group is ready to conduct a major attack, U.S. counterterrorism officials said.

The audio and video statements appear to be part of a propaganda campaign by the terrorist group to bolster morale in its ranks, the officials said.

Intelligence officials said al Qaeda has been damaged since the beginning of the global war on terrorism in 2001 but remains capable of a major attack.

John D. Negroponte, the director of national intelligence, and senior intelligence officials are scheduled to testify today before the Senate as part of an annual threat briefing. Mr. Negroponte will highlight the continuing but changing threat posed by al Qaeda, which U.S. intelligence officials regard as the most serious national security challenge to the nation.

However, there are no signs of an impending attack like the hijacked airline strikes on the Pentagon and World Trade Center that killed almost 3,000 people on September 11, 2001, the officials said.

The officials discussed, on the condition of anonymity, the analysis of an audio statement by Osama bin Laden and a subsequent video from his key deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri.

Bin Laden said in an audio message broadcast by Arab satellite television station Al Jazeera on Jan. 19 that an attack "is being prepared and you'll see it in your homeland very soon."

Eleven days later, al-Zawahri appeared in a videotaped message, also broadcast on Al Jazeera, saying that the "truce" offered by bin Laden had been rejected because of a Jan. 13 U.S. air strike that killed several top al Qaeda leaders but missed al-Zawahri.

Al-Zawahri said in the message Monday that al Qaeda would conduct further attacks on the United States.

A U.S. intelligence official said no hard intelligence relates to the al Qaeda statements and nothing indicates that the group is set to carry out an attack.

"Not every tape that comes out has been followed by an attack," the official said. "However, when they make these kinds of statements, you have to take them seriously."

This official said al Qaeda, and specifically its leadership, has been "damaged" by U.S. efforts, including the captures and killings of numerous top leaders.

"There has been a great erosion of the leadership, but al Qaeda does remain a danger and has [attack] capabilities," the official said.

The official noted that other groups that are "inspired" by al Qaeda have formed and may have "faint" ties or no links to "al Qaeda central" -- the group led by bin Laden and al-Zawahri.

A second official said bin Laden's offer of a truce and al-Zawahri's statements against U.S. leaders are part of "a propaganda ploy" designed to "buck up the morale of the rank and file" and prove they are still alive.

"It's also part of an effort to make the United States and Pakistan appear ineffective" in the war on terrorism, the official said.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20060201-113852-8361r.htm

[Petronas]

Manual for Making Rocket Propellant
February 16, 2006

A manual posted online on a jihadist message forum provided instructions for making a kno3-sugar rocket propellant from using powdered sugar and potassium nitrate. The detailed instructions provide a method, adapted from amateur rocket manufacturing, for quickly making rocket propellant using very few resources, with illustrations at each step of the manufacturing process.

A translation of the manual is provided to our Intel Service members.

http://siteinstitute.org/bin/articles.cgi?ID=publications149006&Category=publications&Subcategory=0

[Petronas]

Terrorist growth overtakes U.S. efforts
March 2, 2006

Thirty new terrorist organizations have emerged since the September 11, 2001, attacks, outpacing U.S. efforts to crush the threat, said Brig. Gen. Robert L. Caslen, the Pentagon's deputy director for the war on terrorism.
"We are not killing them faster than they are being created," Gen. Caslen told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson Center yesterday, warning that the war could take decades to resolve.
Gen. Caslen said that two years ago the Department of Defense had not settled on a clear definition of the nature of the war. Moreover, because each government department had its own perspective, "we all had different strategies," he said.
The Defense Department now has defined the nature of the war, he said. The enemy, he said, is "a transnational movement of extremist organizations, networks and individuals that use violence and terrorism as a means to promote their end." It is not a global insurgency, the general said.
"We do not go as far as to say it is a global insurgency, because it lacks a centralized command and control," he said.
Groups such as al Qaeda, though, are constantly trying to increase their capabilities, and in some cases are outstripping the United States, Gen. Caslen said.
"We in the Pentagon are behind our adversaries in the use of communications -- either to recruit or train," he said. Compared with historical jihads, or enduring Muslim wars, this one "is accelerated because of its capability in communications."
The Pentagon official said Muslim thought ranges from secular and mainstream to extremist and intolerant.
The takfir (infidel) view of the world that falls under the Salafist teachings of the Sunni sect -- such as al Qaeda in Iraq -- is an example of the extremist view that condones violence to accomplish ideological ends, he said.
The general said the extremists' goal is to remove U.S. troops from Iraq and establish a radical state under Shariah, or Islamic law, remove what they consider the apostate governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt, and destroy Israel.
But the enemy has vulnerabilities.
"The ideology is not popular among most, even Muslims," he said. "We need to undermine support by amplifying the moderate forces and undermining the enemy's repressive and corrupt behavior."
Gen. Caslen said the government and military are working to integrate their strategies and plans, and that a national strategic presidential directive and homeland security presidential directive are being drafted to face the terrorist threat.
Leading the war on terrorism is Special Operations Command based in Tampa, Fla. The command is writing a military global campaign strategy with a specific plan to deal with each terrorist organization.
Gen. Caslen said a governmentwide plan to assign tasks and responsibilities to all U.S. government departments and the military also is being created.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/world/20060301-113323-8165r.htm

[Petronas]

Canadian trash may be threat to safety
Trucks could be used in a terrorist attack, report says
March 2, 2006

WASHINGTON - In addition to being a stinky nuisance and an environmental hazard, Canadian trash trucks coming to Michigan also could pose terrorist threats, a recently released Department of Homeland Security report shows. Fewer than 10 of the 415 trash trucks that come into Michigan each day from Ontario are physically inspected by Customs and Border Protection agents. That would make it easy for terrorists to smuggle chemical or biological materials into the state.

That's what Sens. Carl Levin, D-Detroit, and Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, say is in the classified report. The Homeland Security's inspector general on Monday posted an unclassified summary of the report on its Web site. Levin, Stabenow and U.S. Rep. John Dingell, D-Dearborn, asked the inspector general more than two years ago to investigate how well the Bureau of Customs and Border Protection screens trash trucks for terrorist contraband. "(The report) is so supportive of our position that the inspector general is afraid of making it public because it would show more vulnerabilities apparently in our security system," Levin said Wednesday. "It has so many vulnerabilities that I won't quote from it." ...

http://www.lsj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060302/NEWS01/603020349/1001/news

[death2aq]

Canadian trash may be threat to safety
Trucks could be used in a terrorist attack, report says
March 2, 2006

WASHINGTON - In addition to being a stinky nuisance and an environmental hazard, Canadian trash trucks coming to Michigan also could pose terrorist threats, a recently released Department of Homeland Security report shows. Fewer than 10 of the 415 trash trucks that come into Michigan each day from Ontario are physically inspected by Customs and Border Protection agents. That would make it easy for terrorists to smuggle chemical or biological materials into the state.

That's what Sens. Carl Levin, D-Detroit, and Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, say is in the classified report. The Homeland Security's inspector general on Monday posted an unclassified summary of the report on its Web site. Levin, Stabenow and U.S. Rep. John Dingell, D-Dearborn, asked the inspector general more than two years ago to investigate how well the Bureau of Customs and Border Protection screens trash trucks for terrorist contraband. "(The report) is so supportive of our position that the inspector general is afraid of making it public because it would show more vulnerabilities apparently in our security system," Levin said Wednesday. "It has so many vulnerabilities that I won't quote from it." ...

http://www.lsj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060302/NEWS01/603020349/1001/news

Sounds like someone needs to keep an eye on trash pickers at the sites where this trash is being dumped.

[Petronas]

Al Qaeda intent on attacking US oil facilities
Wednesday, May 17, 2006
By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: A leading expert on Al Qaeda has predicted that in the next phase of the terrorist group’s war on the US economy, the number of attacks on oil infrastructure targets will increase.

Michael Scheuer, who served the CIA for 11 years and was head of the agency’s Osama Bin Laden unit, told a meeting on the threat to Saudi oil industry, organised by the Jamestown Foundation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Monday that Al Qaeda and its allies are well placed throughout the Persian Gulf to attack oil facilities and officials.

Saudi successes in 2003 in killing and capturing several Al Qaeda figures may be one reason there have not been more attacks against the region’s oil facilities. He said Al Qaeda, apart from military actions, clearly intends to use its media apparatus to “stir the troubled pot of oil-related international worries” and thereby increase pessimism about the price of oil and the dependability of oil supplies. Al Qaeda websites, he noted, had even owned the string of attacks on Nigerian oil facilities called the attackers the “lions of Nigeria” and reminding them that “Allah supports you”.

Scheuer said Bin Laden’s intention is to bankrupt the US economy, which is “entirely likely” to lead to attacks on infrastructure targets inside the US by Al Qaeda, its allies and groups that may not necessarily be associated with either. The attacks would probably focus on large targets that could cripple parts of the US economy. Other groups, however, may be satisfied with staging small-scale attacks on pipelines, pumping stations, tanker trucks as in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In a password-protected Al Qaeda forum on the Internet, targets such as the Trans-Alaska pipeline are highlighted. The attacks could be staged by small teams of Muslims living in the US or trams that could be brought across the border from Mexico or Canada.

Scheuer said that Al Qaeda’s February 2006 attack on the Abqaiq refinery in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest such complex, should be seen as the beginning of a new and more systematic phase of Al Qaeda’s targeting of the oil infrastructure. The attack appears to have been well planned but badly executed. Even in failure, however, the attack boosted the price of oil by nearly $2 a barrel and added to the readiness of oil producers and their worried insurers to increase the “terrorism premium” already built into the basic price of oil. The orders for the Abqaiq attack came direct from Osama Bin Laden. Two days later, there was a fatwa from the Al Qaeda-related cleric, Sheikh al-Anzi, which said that such attacks are legitimate and they must be conducted in a way that does not produce permanent damage to the Muslim community’s ability to exploit and benefit from its energy reserves.

Another speaker at the event, British expert Stephen Ulph, said the threat to the oil sector looms like a “menacing spectre” over the Saudi and Gulf states. In his view the Abqaiq attack has done damage to the image of Saudi stability and won prestige for Al Qaeda. These events, he stressed, “command our attention” as Al Qaeda’s insurgent strategy, right from the beginning, has focused on the issue of Middle East oil wealth as a cardinal feature of its global struggle. Originally, Bin Laden advised against targeting these facilities on the grounds that they constituted a fundamental resource for the Muslim community. However, it elaborated a new “bleed-until-bankruptcy” strategy against the US as the prime backer of Gulf regimes. He pointed out that although the US military has removed itself form Saudi Arabia, the ‘mujahideen’ continue to use the slogan “expelling the polytheists from the Peninsula” as an “ideological banner” rather than as a political demand. This is because it is a struggle whose dimensions simply dwarf the banalities of temporary reverses on the ground. He said Saudi and American electronic espionage against the insurgent groups was much improved today over the past. After the Abqaiq attack, Saudi security forces conducted raids across the country and rounded up Islamist militants, half of them suspected of financially aiding terrorist attacks and propagating jihadists ideology.

According to Ulph, “Al Qaeda’s objective in these attacks is more abstract – prestige to the movement, damage to Saudi self-confidence and uncertainty on the global oil market. As world energy consumption is predicted to increase by more than 50 percent by the year 2025, concerns from the security of Saudi energy exports will increase accordingly. With this trump card handed to Al Qaeda in its asymmetric warfare, actual success in damaging the country’s energy facilities is not necessary to raise fears of insecurity. In this respect, Al Qaeda has correctly identified a fundamental weak point and scored what has in fact been an uninterrupted series of triumphs.”

Another expert, John SK Daly, who addressed the meeting, said should a major terrorist attack on Saudi Arabia’s major oil facilities succeed, the impact on global oil prices would be immense, dwarfing any other man-made event. He pointed out that the massive Abqaiq complex is a critical element in Saudi Arabia’s prosperity. He said Al Qaeda’s most fearsome weapon is the hijacked commercial aircraft and its interest in using one for an attack in Saudi Arabia predates 9/11. He said, “The Abqaiq attack is the first harbinger of Osama Bin Laden’s December 2004 statement urging militants to attack oil targets in the Gulf to stop the flow of oil to the West.” He pointed out that the immediate answer to the Abqaiq attack by the Saudi government was “repression and more security”.

However, the fact that Saudi Aramco vehicles were used in the attack indicates that Al Qaeda operatives at the very least have access to the oil giant’s assets, leaving open the possibility of future “inside jobs”. An attack could also be mounted from across the border in Iraq, where Saudi fighters are active. He said the possibility of such an attack is ‘inevitable’ and 100 percent security in the kingdom is impossible. Most of the oil facilities are in the Eastern provinces where a restive Shia population “chafes under the austere tenets of Wahabism”.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006/05/17/story_17-5-2006_pg7_45

[Petronas]

Transnational Threats Update
May/June Issue
Vol. 4, Issue 6

In this issue:


Violence in Somalia Said to Be Fueled by Al Qaeda–linked Fighters
Colombian Drug Lord Captured; Submarines Used for Transport; Imprisoned Organized Crime Figures Wield Power from behind Bars in Brazil
North Korean Counterfeiting Ring Spreads Worldwide Ripples
Courts Sentence Islamist Terrorists for Plotting Chemical Attacks in Paris
Planned Attack on Israeli Airliner in Geneva Connected to Cells in France and Spain
Australia Convicts First Terrorism Crime
Israel to Participate in NATO Naval Exercise
Bangladesh is a Major Trafficking Route
Iranian Officials Assert Their Role in Stopping Narco-Trafficking to West
E-Passports to Be Issued in EU Member Nations
U.S., Afghan, Pakistani Special Forces Conduct First Antiterror Drill
Violent Jihad in the Netherlands: Current Trends in the Islamist Terrorist Threat


http://www.csis.org/TNT/ttu/

[al-Canine]

Mideast Violence May Raise Odds of U.S Attack: Experts

The Bush administration’s tacit support for Israeli military strikes on Lebanon may have increased the danger of militant retaliation against the United States and U.S. interests abroad, some experts say.

U.S. and European authorities have stepped up vigilance against groups including Hizbollah, which intelligence experts say has cells in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

Israel’s attempt to cripple Hizbollah in Lebanon may have strengthened the Shiite organization by winning it fresh political support among moderate Arabs and Muslims, former officials and other experts said.

The Bush administration’s stance that calling an immediate cease-fire would not be productive has also angered many Arabs at a time when bombings in Lebanon are causing large numbers of Muslim civilian casualties, they added.

Washington argues it is supporting long-term efforts against terrorism in the region.

One European counterterrorism official said it was widely recognized there that Middle East hostilities could become a motivating factor for Sunni groups inspired by Osama bin Laden who ordinarily dislike Hizbollah but might try to exploit the outrage in Arab communities.

"Even al-Qaida itself may be ready with an attack, and they may choose to use it now," said Michael Scheuer, a former CIA counterterrorism official who ran the agency’s bin Laden unit.

But Peter Brookes of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, said the Middle East crisis had not increased the already tangible danger of attack. "We’ve always been a target, and Hizbollah already has American blood on its hands," Brookes said.

GROWING DANGER

Some former intelligence officers were adamant about a growing danger, however.

"There will be revenge attacks," said one former U.S. official, who remains up-to-date on counterterrorism strategy.

"The concern now is that there’s rising animosity that will be exploited, not just by Hizbollah," said the former official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, adding: "Then there are people being driven over the edge by what’s happening, who aren’t necessarily members of any group, but who might strike."

Hizbollah had roles in a number of attacks on American targets in the 1980s and 1990s, including the 1983 barracks bombing that killed 241 U.S. Marines, Navy personnel and Army soldiers in Beirut, according to the State Department.

But intelligence officials said the group was believed to have suspended hostilities against the United States in the 1990s. There was currently no evidence of an imminent attack or any sign Hizbollah had changed its policy, officials said.

"That said, you can’t rule it out and people aren’t ruling it out," said a U.S. counterterrorism official.

Hizbollah has long supported Palestinian militant groups. In 2004, it signed an agreement with Hamas for joint attacks on Israel, the State Department said.

Scheuer said this would be extraordinary opportunity for al-Qaida to emerge as "the champion of the Palestinian people."

The United States could face spontaneous violence soon from local Islamist groups inspired by al-Qaida, or well-planned attacks over the longer term by professionals from Hizbollah or al-Qaida, former intelligence officials said.

"It takes time to prepare a terrorist attack and we’re watching closely. So far no one’s seen anything, but it’s not likely they’d see a lot if an attack is being planned by professionals," one former officer said.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=1975134&C=america

[The 801]

Sometimes you have to wonder how much they pay these guys, don't ya?

[Alli]

The Bush administration’s tacit support for Israeli military strikes on Lebanon may have increased the danger of militant retaliation against the United States and U.S. interests abroad, some experts say.
What about other nations that support Israel?

Like al creepa suddenly liked the US over the past few years, and now they don't again. :rolleyes:

[kotzi]

What about other nations that support Israel?


You mean the UK? What other?

[Solo]

Experts fear terror attacks

By Jonathan Lyons in Jakarta

August 02, 2006 01:36pm
Article from: Reuters


SECURITY experts are bracing for a possible attack by Indonesian militants which would fit a pattern of yearly high-profile bombings dating from the 2002 Bali blasts that killed 202 people.
Three other big attacks have taken place since then, one each year and all between August and mid-October.

"There is no reason to think they will all of a sudden stop," Ken Conboy, a security consultant in Jakarta who closely monitors Indonesia's militants, said.

US-based analyst Zachary Abuza agrees. "We know there is tremendous pressure on them to pull off an attack by this fall," Mr Abuza said.

Proponents of this view say such regular cycles are dictated, in part, by the need for the bombers to go to ground for six to eight months after an attack, emerging just long enough to plan and execute their next operation.

But others question whether Jemaah Islamiah, blamed for the four earlier bombings in Bali and the Indonesian capital Jakarta, or any of its factions, now have the ability or the will to carry out a vigorous new strike.

Arrests, deaths, and what appears to be a "re-think" among some militants about the efficacy of violence in support of their stated goal of an Islamic superstate in southeast Asia, have all taken their toll.

So, too, has an apparent split within Jemaah Islamiah, into a political wing under the fiery preacher Abu Bakar Bashir and a pro-bombing wing led by Noordin Top, who remains at large.

Arabinda Acharya, of Singapore's International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, said Bashir, released in June after serving time in jail for a role in the 2002 Bali bombing, was taking more of a political tack these days.

The emergence of what some are now calling JI Mainstream, under Bashir, may pose a greater danger than any would-be bombers on the loose, he said.

"Although JI mainstream places a high emphasis on proselytising, they also provide military training to their members."

Most senior figures were veterans of the same US-backed campaign against the Soviets in Afghanistan that gave birth to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda.

"Over time, their consolidated strength will be greater than the decentralised and ad hoc (pro-bombing) factions."

Meanwhile, the experts agree there is no shortage of recruits prepared to carry out attacks, including suicide missions. Sporadic religious clashes in Indonesia and an active radical movement provide breeding grounds for new militants.

"Unfortunately, the suicide volunteers is the easiest part," said Mr Conboy.

More daunting is the expertise to construct complex bombs. The death of Azahari bin Husin in a shootout with Indonesian police in 2005 deprived JI of a master bomb-maker, one of the few figures with the skill to wire and detonate powerful car bombs.

Other police operations in Indonesia and nearby Malaysia have further reduced JI's striking power, said Mr Abuza. But this has only spawned a new generation of unidentified militants.

"The good news is they are less capable as a result. The bad news is no one has ever heard of them," making detection by the authorities that much more difficult.

Widodo Adi Sucipto, Indonesia's chief security minister, said on Tuesday more incidents could be expected despite police successes.

"There have been significant results but we still have to prepare because... terrorism exists and Indonesia has become the target and the victim," he said.

[Petronas]

Worldwide: Media reports issued on 4 August 2006 indicate that more than 200 Islamic militants from various Southeast Asian countries are planning to conduct suicide bomb attacks against Israeli targets and against businesses and countries that support Israel, including the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The threat was disseminated at a press statement by the chairman of the Jakarta, Indonesia-based ASEAN Muslim Youth Movement (AMYM), and is aimed at punishing Israel for its military actions in Lebanon and Palestinian-controlled areas. Thousands of militants, 40 percent of whom have military experience, reportedly volunteered to be sent abroad; however, only 200 will depart immediately due to financial restraints. Approximately 3,000 of the volunteers are expected to rally in Indonesia's Pontiak, West Kalimantan, on 5 August. The validity of the threat cannot be independently corroborated and no additional information concerning possible targets is available.

http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/HotSpots.asp

[Petronas]

Bernard Lewis: August 22 "might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world"
August 08, 2006

In the Wall Street Journal (thanks to Sam), world-renowned Middle East scholar Bernard Lewis echoes some observations about possibilities regarding Iran ...

What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/012603.php

[Petronas]

Here is an event those who can might find it worthwhile to attend. I plan to go.

I am particularly interested in meeting Walid Shoebat ( http://www.shoebat.com/bio.php?PHPSESSID=a28b9b2df74a227bb00db6e18805b8e1 ) ( http://www.shoebat.com/media/cn8_2006_01.wmv?PHPSESSID=a28b9b2df74a227bb00db6e1 8805b8e1 ) and Wafa Sultan ( http://blog.iamnotashamed.net/2006/04/06/wafa-sultan-al-jeezera-interview/ ) (click on the arrow on the "MEMRI TV" box half a page down).

Las Vegas, Nevada
November 10th & 11th, 2006

Understanding the Threat
of Radical Islamist Terrorism

In Negotiations R. James Woolsey - Vice President for Booz Allen Hamilton and former Director of the CIA from 1993 to 1995. Mr. Woolsey served as Chairman of Freedom House and as a Trustee for the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Confirmed Joe Kaufman - Chairman of Americans Against Hate. He is also an investigative journalist for Frontpage Magazine, the host of The Politics of Terrorism radio show. Joe has been featured on Fox News and has appeared on numerous local and national television and radio talk shows.

Confirmed Laura Mansfield - Author and counter-terror analyst. She uses her knowledge of the Arabic language and of Islamic culture and history to investigate jihad and jihadis both in the US and throughout the world.

Confirmed Harvey Kushner, PhD - Noted author, lecturer, professor and internationally recognized authority on terrorism. Dr. Kushner has advised and provided training to numerous government agencies, including the FBI, FAA, INS, and U.S. Customs.

Confirmed Robert Spencer - Director of Jihad Watch, a writer and researcher who has studied Islam for more than twenty years. He is an Adjunct Fellow with the Free Congress Foundation and has written a selection of critically acclaimed books on the subject of Islam including The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam (and the Crusades).

Confirmed Walid Shoebat - As a former member of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, Mr. Shoebat participated in acts of terror and violence against Israel, and was later imprisoned in the Russian Compound, Jerusalem's central prison for incitement and violence against Israel. He has since had an epiphany as to the evils of radical Islam and has become an advocate for his former enemy.

Confirmed Bruce Tefft, PhD - A 21 year veteran of the CIA, including 17 years abroad, and founding member of the CIA’s Counter Terrorism Center in 1985, Mr. Tefft has accumulated over 30 years experience in foreign affairs, intelligence, security operations and counter-terrorism.

Confirmed Paul Williams, PhD - Journalist and author of Al Qaeda Connection: International Terrorism, Organized Crime, and the Coming Apocalypse and Osama's Revenge: The Next 9/11: What the Media and the Government Haven't Told You. He has served as a consultant for the FBI, as well as an adjunct professor of humanities at the University of Scranton.

Confirmed Dr. Wafa Sultan - a secular Syrian-American psychiatrist who lives in Los Angeles, Dr. Sultan has become notable since the September 11, 2001 attacks for her participation in Middle East political debates, with Arabic essays that circulated widely and some television appearances on Al-Jazeera and CNN. Her thesis, described as witnessing "a battle between modernity and barbarism which Islam will lose", has brought her telephone threats, but also praise from reformers. Her comments, especially a pointed criticism that "no Jew has blown himself up in a German restaurant", brought her an invitation to Tel Aviv, Israel by the American Jewish Congress.

http://www.americastruthforum.com/symposium.htm

[Petronas]

NYC Still a Terror Target, Police Warn
Sep 8, 2006

Five years after the attack on the World Trade Center, Islamic extremists including members of Hezbollah still view the city as a prime target for another terrorist strike, police say. The threat "is a permanent condition, and in all likelihood will worsen," the New York Police Department's top counterterrorism official, Richard Falkenrath, told an audience of private security executives Thursday. "It's a very sobering conclusion and I don't reach it at all happily, but I do think it is true," he said.

The NYPD summoned the executives to offer the terrorism threat assessment and to outline security measures for the upcoming United Nations General Assembly. Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly said there were no specific threats involving the annual U.N. event opening Sept. 12. But guarding the concentration of world leaders "always is a large undertaking for us," he said.

Aside from putting hundreds of additional officers on patrol, authorities plan to create a frozen zone around the United Nations using checkpoints fortified by hydraulic metal barriers. All vehicles entering the area will be stopped and checked for explosives.

The briefing at Police Headquarters in lower Manhattan was part of a program designed to encourage more vigilance by private security at large hotels, Wall Street firms and other companies.

While al-Qaida operatives and their homegrown imitators remain the greatest concern, Hezbollah should not be ignored, police officials said. They emphasized the point by showing footage of a Hezbollah rally in Lebanon where a massive crowd chanted, "Death to America." Historically, the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and is called a terrorist group by the United States, has been most active in the Middle East, but "we're worried that may be changing," Falkenrath said.

The city has pockets of Hezbollah loyalists who could be incited to violence, the NYPD intelligence analysts said. They said they suspect that Iranian spies working on the group's behalf had already done reconnaissance on landmarks, large synagogues and other potential targets in Manhattan and elsewhere.

In 2004, the United States expelled two guards at Iran's U.N. mission for photographing "sensitive" sites around the city. Iranian officials denied any wrongdoing, saying that the pair took pictures of typical tourist attractions.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2409829

[Petronas]

"And the days are pregnant and giving birth to new events..."Al Qaeda threatens attacks in Gulf, Israel
Sep 11, 2006

Al Qaeda warned in a video aired on the fifth anniversary of the September 11 attacks that U.S. allies Israel and the Gulf Arab states would be its next target in a campaign that would seal the West's "economic doom."

Deputy al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri said in remarks apparently addressed to Western leaders: "I tell them do not bother yourselves with defending your forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. These forces are doomed to failure. You have to bolster your defences in two areas ... the first is the Gulf, from which you will be evicted, God willing, after your defeat in Iraq and then your economic doom will be achieved," he said in the video broadcast in part on the Arabic al-Jazeera television channel.

"And the next (target) is Israel. The current of holy war is closing on it and your end there will put an end of the Zionist-crusader supremacy." Zawahri's warning of attacks in the Gulf, the world's top oil exporting region, follows previous calls by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to target oil facilities to cripple the West.

Al Qaeda has also in the past branded U.S.-allied governments in the Middle East as infidels and traitors, and has used this collusion with the West to justify their attacks. Gulf Arab leaders all have strong ties with Washington and Saudi-born bin Laden has in the past singled out the Saudi royal family for censure. The Saudi wing of al Qaeda launched in 2003 a campaign of shootings and suicide bombings, many targeting foreigners, to topple the House of Saud.

In February, al Qaeda militants conducted a failed attack on the world's largest oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia. The group then vowed to carry out more attacks. Insurgents in Iraq have often targeted oil facilities and in Yemen, bin Laden's ancestral homeland which is cracking down on militants, al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for the bombing of the U.S. destroyer Cole in 2000 and an attack on a French supertanker two years later.

Ceremonies were due to take place on Monday across the United States to mark the attacks on New York and Washington which killed almost 3,000 people and triggered Washington's global "war on terror."

In the video, Zawahri urged Muslims to step up attacks against the United States and the West, according to excerpts aired by CNN television network.

CNN said the video was available on Islamist Web sites, but it could not be found on the mainstream sites often used by militant groups. It quoted Zawahri as saying that "new events" were on the way. Your leaders are hiding from you the true extent of the disaster," Zawahri said. "And the days are pregnant and giving birth to new events, with God's permission and guidance."

The video showed Zawahri dressed in white and sitting in front of a book case. It appeared to be part of al Qaeda's own commemoration of the September 11 attacks.

Zawahri held the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia responsible for the killing of Muslims in the Middle East, Al Jazeera said. "Israel has been able to dominate Lebanon and Gaza only because Egypt has been totally removed from the conflict with Israel," he said.

On Sunday, al Qaeda's media arm al-Sahab released a 92-minute video entitled "The Manhattan Raids," a collage of video footage showing bin Laden urging the attackers to prepare themselves for martyrdom, the wills of some of the attackers and clips showing the men training in an unidentified location.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2419234

[Casey]

Army official: Imminent al-Qaeda threat to Eilat

Senior officer says terror cells being set up around southern town – in Sinai, Jordan, Saudi Arabia – and that defense establishment needs to stay alert in order to prevent attacks

Meir Ohayon
Published: 09.19.06, 00:51

A senior army official said that the defense establishment needs to be prepared for the possibility of a global jihad attack in the southern town of Eilat. "Eilat is a target. In the last two years many global jihad attacks were carried out around it. The ability and
the intent to attack exist, and we must stay alert in order to prevent a strategic strike," he stated.

The escalation in infiltration attempts from the Egyptian border, al-Qaeda's threats to carry out a terror attack in Israel, and the formation of terror cells in Sinai, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, give the IDF further reason to step up operations to thwart infiltrations.

"The threat to Eilat is multi-dimensional: From the air, the sea, and of course – from land, and can be launched from Jordan or Egypt," the officer explained. "We have yet to see the Islamic jihad's fingerprints in this region, but nevertheless I consider it to be an imminent, worrying threat that I don't want to see nearing the area," he added.

The official recommended to close the western road along Egypt's border until an electronic fence is erected in the area.

Due to plans of the terror organizations across the border to hit tourist destinations, the IDF recently decided to establish a new base in Mount Sagi in the Negev, and station reserve and compulsory service units in the place that will reinforce the operations of army forces in the area.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3305586,00.html

[Petronas]

LET ISSUES FATWA TO KILL THE POPE
2.10. 2006

Acting on behalf of the International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People, which is headed by Osama bin Laden, the Markaz-ud-Dawa (MUD) of Pakistan, which is the political wing of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), is reported to have issued a Fatwa calling upon the Muslims to kill Pope Benedict XVI for a recent speech of his delivered on Septe